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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 4:45pm
I doubt they have a negative impression of education so much as the politics around universities. More politics I swear we will wish we had avoided...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 5:30pm
There is quite a bit "fake science" out there, where people (like those two physicians in California) use grossly flawed procedures that yield completely invalid but startling conclusions that appear to contradict what most specialists are saying.  It is announced with great fanfare on YouTube or Fox or god knows where.  Then it takes awhile to clean up after them, and conspiracy theorists are never convinced.

There are procedures that fields have honed  over time to learn how to get answers to certain questions. Unfortunately they often take time.  Specialists  have also figured out things not to do. things not to do.  I had a graduate course eons ago in procedures for clinical trials, for example, which hardly makes me an expert, but I can certainly detect the obvious BS.  

Some people are looking to find ways to reject what they don't  want  to hear.  It is human nature but still not the best approach to maintaining your own health just now.  My advice is listen to people who have spent a substantial portion of their lives working on certain problems.  And people in academia don't owe their jobs to reporting a particular outcome in science.  Also it's better if it's actually published in a real  journal, or if the advice is based on that data.  Finally, track record matters.

Actually, I was thinking about something benfb wrote that I gave  him massive  grief over:  "We're  not like Italy".  Turns  out he was right.  We are far worse.  They had carnage but then got things under control.  Our carnage continues only in different parts of the country.

Ok, right now I am on a quest to find the ideal mask for sports.


Edited by Baal - 06/28/2020 at 5:33pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 5:43pm
About lockdown economically shooting ourselves in the foot/head - do you think with no lockdown, there would have been no economic impact from Covid?  This is the part I can't understand.  

It is perfectly true to say that if you are going to do a lockdown and not use it to get control of the spread and institute massive testing and track/trace, the whole thing was kind of pointless.  We are a very stupid and poorly run/led country.  And that is not being political, it is simply a fact on the ground.  Guatemala, Brazil, Russia, this is the crowd we run with now. 

But it is being proven in real-time that the counterfactual economic scenario being proposed, everyone wears a mask, social distance, no lockdown, everything is fine, is not and never was a real possibility.  People are not doing it.  

So the alternative to the half-assed lockdown we had was mostly uncontrolled community transmission spreading to every state back in March.  The economy was going to get killed either way.  

Smart countries had a serious lockdown, and used that time to implement programs to control the virus when they re-open.  Yes, their economies took damage too.  That was never a question once Covid became a pandemic.  Everyone will suffer, and nothing good will come of this.  

But to blame the victims for being old, or unhealthy, which in America correlates amazingly well with being poor, and also with being brown or black, is a load of shit.  If those people were German, or Korean, or Greek, or Chinese, they would not be suffering and dying. Our great American society is to blame, because bottom line we do not care if ten of thousands of our fellow citizens die, as long as it is the ones who are  not like us.  We prove that year in and year out in myriad ways too obvious to argue. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 6:06pm
What did the smart countries do differently in their lockdowns than the US did in its shutdowns/ lockdowns?

Are there any good articles describing the differences? 

I searched some but mostly came up with generalities.  This is important to know and publicize so we can be more vocal about getting government to do those things next time.

Mark
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 7:12pm
Originally posted by mjamja mjamja wrote:

What did the smart countries do differently in their lockdowns than the US did in its shutdowns/ lockdowns?
Mark

There are variations according to circumstances.  New Zealand had it easier than China.  But in general:

Lockdown early and enforce it seriously
Citizens heed advice and act responsibly
That breaks community transmission or prevents it from starting
Use the lockdown time to scale up testing and track/trace capabilities for when you re-open
Set fact-based conditions for re-opening stages and enforce return to local lockdown immediately if new cases flare up. 

Originally posted by mjamja mjamja wrote:

Are there any good articles describing the differences? 

Lots.  





Compare the steps China took in Beijing to wipe out only a few hundred cases, with my home state of Florida.  We have roughly the same population as Beijing, but we are now reporting more than 8,000 new cases a day.  Our governor's most decisive response to date was to fire the state employee statistician responsible for reporting on cases and start lying about the numbers.  

Gov. DeSantis magical thinking clarifies the essential difference between smart and stupid countries. 

Smart countries are in the reailty-based community.  The US left that neighborhood almost twenty years ago now.  For those who don't know, reality-based community comes from a quote attributed to an unnamed Bush 2 admin official, in reference to the war in Iraq.  Here is the quote in  full.  Parallels to our Covid response are obvious.

The aide said that guys like me [Suskind] were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 7:34pm
One thing interesting is various kinds of masks are becoming available.  If anyone finds masks that are good for sports, let us know.  Pure cloth ones suck when they get wet.  I think good ones are rigid enough to keep some space between nose/ mouth and mask material.  Ideally too, they should fasten behind the head and not pull on the ears.  UnderArmor has created one that gets good reviews but sold  out until August.



Edited by Baal - 06/28/2020 at 7:36pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 7:38pm
Originally posted by mjamja mjamja wrote:

What did the smart countries do differently in their lockdowns than the US did in its shutdowns/ lockdowns?

Are there any good articles describing the differences? 

I searched some but mostly came up with generalities.  This is important to know and publicize so we can be more vocal about getting government to do those things next time.

Mark


Too many articles to count. Google how countries like Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, NZ, etc. handled it.

Some common traits of countries that have done well:

Leadership that respects science and took this seriously from the start in a non politicized manner. Chancellor Merkel of Germany has a Phd in chemistry. The VP of Taiwan is an epidemiologist.

The Asian countries had experience with SARS and had well developed plans which they didn't hesitate to activate. Mask wearing in public was also very common before any of this and was never a political issue.

Having a national healthcare system where everyone is insured also is a great benefit. Contact tracing and prioritizing resources is much easier when there's one central database of people.

There's lots more detail.


Meanwhile, this weekend in Texas where virus is spiking up, VP Pence attended a mega church service of 2000 where there was a choir on stage of at least 100 people, where none of the singers wore masks.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/504950-choir-of-more-than-100-people-sing-without-masks-at-pence-event-in



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 7:46pm
Hi,

Again, thanks for the many astute and valuable observations.

The economy was going to get killed either way.  

If the demand side of dynamic economic systems is very severely suppressed, the only possibility is an enormous decline in economic activity.  Globally, we are down $12 trillion, which is quite a bit of money.

The most significant difference in response to COVID on the economic side is the national commitment to assisting those who suffered, with the very, very high percentage of those in that state in that state to no fault of their own.  [Sometimes it feels like] Only in America would we tolerate states like Florida that brag about purposefully structuring their unemployment compensation system to make it inefficient, ineffective, and extremely difficult to qualify for the money these literally and figuratively poor people need.  These states are proud of their cruelty.  They see nothing wrong with Mom and the two kids living in their car, the main function of the day being hours spent waiting in the bread lines, on the streets lined with the homeless in striking numbers.  

The kindness and caring humanitarian examples set in other countries that function in a similar economic and cultural manner as the U.S. should stand as an embarrassment for America. 

On the virus side of the equation, the early information out of Italy was all that was needed for the U.S. to respond far more effectively by employing exceptional attention to the elderly and the major health preconditions that the virus thrives within.  Against all information to the contrary, it is not correct to regard everyone of every age and every health status as in equal threat and danger of the virus.  Instead, far better to have implemented generalized precautions for the overall population and extraordinary attention and support for the most vulnerable.  Many more would be alive today had this level of sophistication been applied.

Thanks.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 7:48pm
It is tough for such discussions not to veer into the political. What players and clubs are needing are facts - what are the circumstances in my community and what can we do to keep ourselves and our club members safe. Unfortunately, in a pandemic the facts are fluid. As we learn more about the virus and how it is spread, facts change. And misinformation abounds - from researchers, news channels, and politicians. As most guidelines and requirements come from the government, based on "facts" or not, politics is always in play.

That is why a forum like this is so important, at least to me. Lively debate helps to inform and encourages consideration of information, even misinformation. There are enough solid folks on this forum who know what is going on to help provide skeptical and critical thought about "facts". I am a researcher and statistician (mostly applied in psychology), and read the COVID-19 research literature a lot, and I appreciate the information sharing that takes place here.

And wear a mask!!  As Baal says, if anyone finds a good one for sports, that needs to be discussed as well. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 8:30pm
Facts are sometimes suppressed.  Iin Florida  some data are intentionally under reported.  Up until a couple of days ago you could get data on ICU utilization at the Texas Medical Center in Houston.   The administrators of the 11 hospitals there warned that ICU use was at 98% on Thursday.  The governor then suspended all elective surgeries (which doesn't really solve that).  But hospital's bottom lines take a huge hit if there is no elective surgery. Now four of the administrators say they spoke too soon but the ICU data are  now hidden. 

All this in today's Houston Chronicle.


Edited by Baal - 06/28/2020 at 8:31pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 7:09am
What I find interesting here is that compared to the US, the UK has an ever lower percentage of people accepting masks according to their poll.  Bad sampling?  Maybe oversampling of the Northeast in the US?

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 7:47am
I don't understand why people around here won't wear them. I don't to play, or to speak. Otherwise it's no biggie

I think generally the youth is rejecting the lockdown. At this point I don't think closing back up will help. Close the bars?  House party!

Those succeptable better lock themselves down. Hopefully we're less thsn 6mo from a vaccine. 

Good news is the mortality rate is dropping. Maybe just more youth being tested...hopefully we're better at treating too.


Edited by cole_ely - 06/29/2020 at 7:53am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 9:40am
Ben was right.  We're not like Italy. 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 10:37am
how about the same chart but for deaths Baal?

Anyway this chart is meaningless without factoring in the number of tests given.


Edited by cole_ely - 06/29/2020 at 11:44am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 12:21pm
Originally posted by stiltt stiltt wrote:

Hello all, I would like to underline how much I like Benfb and his personal, original intelligence of the game and life in general, his club and realization in his community talks for him, let's not forget about that: he gives his family's money to a tt club in Salem, OR that does not pay rent, that's on Ben, he is the real deal in the tt world.

I complete agree that Ben needs to be commended for this. They have a very nice facility and membership.     
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 12:35pm
Ben is one of my favorite posters

Edited by cole_ely - 06/29/2020 at 12:36pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 2:51pm
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

how about the same chart but for deaths Baal?

Anyway this chart is meaningless without factoring in the number of tests given.


I don't have such a chart immediately at my fingertips but a comparable chart on hospitalizations would show the same pattern (especially in some states).  If you look at deaths, though, the time course, while still different from Europe,  is not quite as alarming.  In the US deaths are very gradually declining even though infections are up.  The reasons are not entirely clear but could include (a) younger people are getting infected these days, and (b) hospitals are getting better at treating these patient, (c) maybe something about the virus is changing  (d) something else.

Hopefully some changes in people's behavior could accelerate the decline.  Keep in mind that it's not binary though.  Some people who will be infected and will survive are going to have a nightmarish experience for quite awhile (even some younger people).  And some people will hardly notice anything.
















Edited by Baal - 06/29/2020 at 2:54pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 3:47pm
thanks

I do remember we discussed hospitalizations earlier. And anyway it's not fair to compare death rates of current states to those of states or countries that had it early, when doctors were totally in the dark anyway. That's why I don't blame Cuomo


Edited by cole_ely - 06/29/2020 at 3:47pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 4:52pm
The understanding of how to treat patients who are critically ill with Covid=19 has definitely evolved since the early days and outcomes are probably better.  One thing that caused a big problem in New York, though, was that the hospital systems were quickly overwhelmed.  That happened in Italy too.  If people are arriving at the hospital already critically ill and they die before they can even get into a hospital room, that tends to hurt the statistical outcomes. 

That hasn't happened anywhere else in the US.   

Yet.

I am very much afraid it could happen in my city though (and in Florida and in Arizona, to name a couple of places). 

BUT, it may be that the current flashing red alerts going off everywhere in the Texas media may change people's behavior some.  After the Governor here re-opened the state people began to behave as if everything was back to normal, and clearly it was not.  And maybe people are suddenly shocked back into reality.  Bars are closed again, and the governor finally allowed the Mayor to put out an order requiring masks be worn in indoor businesses, the size of outdoor gatherings is limited.  Some other things that could cause massive spreads are still allowed though.  (For example the Vice President attended a mega-church service in Dallas yesterday with a choir of 100 people singing and not wearing masks.)     


Edited by Baal - 06/29/2020 at 4:55pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 5:07pm
Deaths.  Not like Europe.  Found a new website with a lot of good data and graphs.  I was right about the gradual decline in deaths -- until a couple of days ago.  This recent graph now shows scary sharp up-tick in deaths in the US.  Let's hope it's just a blip and not a longer trend. The first link is data from the US on daily deaths, the second is from Italy.




https://outbreak.info/epidemiology?location=ITA&log=false&variable=dead_numIncrease&xVariable=date&fixedY=false



Edited by Baal - 06/29/2020 at 5:23pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/29/2020 at 5:15pm
I think we needed a campaign directed at youth. I think we should allow outdoor gatherings because it's safer than indoors, and kids are rejecting the isolation

Edited by cole_ely - 06/29/2020 at 5:16pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 12:11am
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

I think we needed a campaign directed at youth. I think we should allow outdoor gatherings because it's safer than indoors, and kids are rejecting the isolation

We need campaigns for everyone. I am still a bit stunned at the resistance to fairly simple interventions. There was an article I can no longer find that the graphs and numbers typically do not convince folks. Stories are better, as it puts a face and context that people can relate to. Especially effective are stories of asymptotic folks infecting their friends, family, and loved ones. 

The stories of all these athletes testing positive certainly are thought provoking for most of us recreational players. Playing is not our livelihood, and can probably be avoided until it is safer.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 12:38am
I wonder if this type of face masking would be effective enough -


Has the advantage of also being cooling, but I wonder if the cooling dampness would reduce any effectiveness. It also has the advantage of not looping behind the ears, which I find can get irritating after a while.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 9:05am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Deaths.  Not like Europe.  Found a new website with a lot of good data and graphs.  I was right about the gradual decline in deaths -- until a couple of days ago.  This recent graph now shows scary sharp up-tick in deaths in the US.  Let's hope it's just a blip and not a longer trend. The first link is data from the US on daily deaths, the second is from Italy.




https://outbreak.info/epidemiology?location=ITA&log=false&variable=dead_numIncrease&xVariable=date&fixedY=false


Are you referring to the 2500 death day? I believe that was due to NJ discovering a bunch of deaths from the last few months.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 9:35am
Deaths are lagging by 4 - 6 weeks.  The percentage mortality rate will likely decline due to younger demographics.  Although the assumption that young correlates to healthy is not as strong as people would like to think.

Nationwide we are setting daily case records.  As sure as night follows day, in 4 - 6 weeks we will be setting daily death records.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 12:28pm
I haven't had time to read this thread in its entirety, so forgive me if I am restating matters.

I assume you are all familiar with this site: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I focus on estimated infections (rather than confirmed infections), since this ought to negate the effect on numbers of the increasing number of tests administered. I focus even more on the "Hospital resource use" and "Daily deaths". This wold suggest that the US as a whole looks "ok" (tough word to use), but with Arizona, Florida and Texas (probably among others), with some scary times ahead (hospital resource use eclipsing available ICU units). And once again, I note that Idaho is a great place to live.     
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 1:51pm
looking at the charts, they're clearly a fan of masks
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 2:42pm
Will a table tennis club with 12 tables in a basketball court be more dangerous than eating out indoors (at 50% capacity)?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 3:52pm
Originally posted by pitigoi pitigoi wrote:

Will a table tennis club with 12 tables in a basketball court be more dangerous than eating out indoors (at 50% capacity)?

I honestly have no facts to defend my position but I suspect TT in those conditions would be safer.  But there are a lot of factors at play.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/30/2020 at 3:55pm
Originally posted by WeebleWobble WeebleWobble wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Deaths.  Not like Europe.  Found a new website with a lot of good data and graphs.  I was right about the gradual decline in deaths -- until a couple of days ago.  This recent graph now shows scary sharp up-tick in deaths in the US.  Let's hope it's just a blip and not a longer trend. The first link is data from the US on daily deaths, the second is from Italy.




https://outbreak.info/epidemiology?location=ITA&log=false&variable=dead_numIncrease&xVariable=date&fixedY=false


Are you referring to the 2500 death day? I believe that was due to NJ discovering a bunch of deaths from the last few months.  


Might be.  The next week or two will be pretty important to see how the death trend goes because death is a lagging indicator compared to cases and hospitalizations.
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