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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:01pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

Doesn't it seem a bit odd that so many months of posts about longevity only now produces some rough approx of how much upon the most demanding insistence possible? And some folks expect everyone to take a collective decision formed apparently long before the most basic measure existed seriously?

You mean the same way you have a vague notion of your personal objectivity but still claim it is valid?

Hell yeah!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:05pm
I'm confused here, I thought it was already decided which balls were more durable and yet there's still data showing disagreement.

> You mean the same way you have a vague notion of your personal objectivity but still claim it is valid?

Just FYI, I don't take your interpretations of my statements seriously.


Edited by AgentHEX - 03/25/2015 at 9:06pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:11pm
On a more serious note, how much of an approximation of longevity does one need when one has broken every Chinese seamed ball he has purchased and used himself?  The problem here is assuming that people need the most basic measure to describe something that virtually everyone has experienced except you in terms of assessing the durability of the ball.  Playability is a different story - that, I think the seamed balls suffer in part because of the seamless alternative, but it's clear that they have fans.  But no one even argues their durability.  After all, I did bring up the fact that the Joola balls have improved because our last tournament in February experienced far less breakage vs. the batch we had from November.  But the breakage rate was so signficant that demands for their strict measurement could only be demanded by someone who has no experience with them.

And like I said, I didn't go in today, but I will go in tomorrow, buy a batch and play exclusively with them.  Film every moment too.  And we will see how long they last.  I am playing tournaments that still use them so I might as well pay the price.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:18pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

I'm confused here, I thought it was already decided which balls were more durable and yet there's still data showing disagreement.

> You mean the same way you have a vague notion of your personal objectivity but still claim it is valid?

Just FYI, I don't take your interpretations of my statements seriously.

Sure, you don't.  Explains why you feel a need to respond to them with arguments that use the reptilian part of your brain.  

What data shows disagreement?  I have played with every ball.  The Nittaku Premium plastic ball is an wierd animal.  There are some that break fairly quickly, and even when broken, are still fairly playable, sometimes with a cracked sound but sometimes without.  At Nationals, I do not remember breaking a ball, though I did break a couple in the first batch I bought from Japan.  It's pretty clear that some of the balls can be very durable, playing around 7 hours or more.  I still have a couple in my training set at least that old, though others have been broken.  But it's something that people know you can get a good batch or a bad batch with.  And no one questions the consistency or the playability, as the bounce is high and the predictability of the bounce is similar to celluloid.  I would have no problem with someone seriously asking at any time for a serious measurement of how long a NP40+ ball lasts as it is an open and serious question, though bad balls were known to exist (lots of complaints were made at the Euro Team Champs, for example, but not that many I remember at Nationals). For a DHS or Joola ball last year, that question was fairly ridiculous.  We broke the Joolas like eggs at both our club tournament and at the NA Teams.


Edited by NextLevel - 03/25/2015 at 9:20pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:27pm
> Just FYI, I don't take your interpretations of my statements seriously.

Que example of why:

me> There've been claims they last X minutes or whatever, and no real credible numbers otherwise. I've only said they seem to last much longer than that and long enough it doesn't seem to be a problem in play, but apparently that's interpreted in other ways by folks prone to such.

you> But the breakage rate was so signficant that demands for their strict measurement could only be demanded by someone who has no experience with them.

--------------

> Sure, you don't.  Explains why you feel a need to respond to them with arguments that use the reptilian part of your brain.  

The reptilian part of my brain says when someone claims X is bigger than Y, how much bigger is important. Pray tell how the smart part of your refutes this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:37pm
Originally posted by wturber wturber wrote:

Why go to this kind of trouble to establish this for one person who has ignored so many good points made on this and other topics? 


Worth iterating that the points are really not as good as they might seem to those making them. I recall you were adamant about the speed of spun balls going into the table, which is a fair point, but it seemed pretty obvious that to find largest diffs it makes far more sense to look at balls that bounce high than the exact opposite. I even ended up elaborating all the way to how ratios work to little apparent effect. So yeah I "ignored" it, because after a ponder the point kind of sucked.


Edited by AgentHEX - 03/25/2015 at 9:41pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:54pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

> Just FYI, I don't take your interpretations of my statements seriously.

Que example of why:

me> There've been claims they last X minutes or whatever, and no real credible numbers otherwise. I've only said they seem to last much longer than that and long enough it doesn't seem to be a problem in play, but apparently that's interpreted in other ways by folks prone to such.

you> But the breakage rate was so signficant that demands for their strict measurement could only be demanded by someone who has no experience with them.

--------------

> Sure, you don't.  Explains why you feel a need to respond to them with arguments that use the reptilian part of your brain.  

The reptilian part of my brain says when someone claims X is bigger than Y, how much bigger is important. Pray tell how the smart part of your refutes this.

Because reptiles don't need to know that King Kong is a gazillion feet to run away from him?

Seriously, these balls broke like eggs.  I asked a 12 year old 2100 rated player how frequently the Joola balls broke.  He said he could break 2-3 in 1.5 hours of playing.  I asked an 1800 player who used the DHS against my advice (he enjoyed playing with them) for his estimate - his was an hour of moderate hitting.  Neither visit this site so they are not part of this circle jerk.

That the Joola balls are doing better now jives with the rumors I have heard that they switched manufacturers.  The 1800 player estimated his first Butterfly ball lasted about 6 hours and that it is the best ball he has owned so far, since he has not purchased any seamless or Nittaku Japan balls (like I said, he likes how the DHS ball plays).

So when other balls are lasting up to 7-12 hrs, do you really want to compare and contrast withg measurements?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 9:56pm
I don't get the reason for all this back and forth - why don't we all just ignore Hex?

Edited by slevin - 03/25/2015 at 9:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:08pm
Jay,  regarding NP40+ balls, my sample was less durable than XSF but my sample size is relatively small, about 24 balls, and I can't seem to buy more anyway.  Bear in mind that durability is not just how long before they break, but the condition they are in after, say, 6 hrs of play, and NP40+ look like they'be been through a war at that point and XSF have actually improved because a little of the roughness is gone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:09pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:


Seriously, these balls broke like eggs.  I asked a 12 year old 2100 rated player how frequently the Joola balls broke.  He said he could break 2-3 in 1.5 hours of playing.  I asked an 1800 player who used the DHS against my advice (he enjoyed playing with them) for his estimate - his was an hour of moderate hitting.  Neither visit this site so they are not part of this circle jerk.
That the Joola balls are doing better now jives with the rumors I have heard that they switched manufacturers.  The 1800 player estimated his first Butterfly ball lasted about 6 hours and that it is the best ball he has owned so far, since he has not purchased any seamless or Nittaku Japan balls (like I said, he likes how the DHS ball plays).
So when other balls are lasting up to 7-12 hrs, do you really want to compare and contrast withg measurements?


So the DHS balls last ~1hr vs ~10? Anyone have tournament ball counts to verify this 10x discrepancy?

> I don't get the reason for all this back and forth - why don't we all just ignore Hex?

Generally back and forth is how discussions work. Also despite it all, the appearance that claims are rational is desirable and this perception is lost when someone is poking holes in them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:13pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

I don't get the reason for all this back and forth - why don't we all just ignore Hex?


Probably would be the best since his comments extend the lengths of threads in really bizarre ways so that people who actually want to find something useful about these topics have to wade through oceans of his stuff and probably get put off by it -- if the messages in my inbox are representative of what a lot of people out there think.  (And surely even AgentHEX understands the concept of a distribution when it comes to observations, so yes, some current DHS balls could last 1 hr or less, and some 10).

The quality of current DHS balls is not really something it is really very productive to actually debate, as oppose to "wish they would do something to start selling something acceptable".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:24pm
What does it really say when it's "bizarre" to try to get an idea of the aggregate expected difference instead of accepting whatever word on the street?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:


Seriously, these balls broke like eggs.  I asked a 12 year old 2100 rated player how frequently the Joola balls broke.  He said he could break 2-3 in 1.5 hours of playing.  I asked an 1800 player who used the DHS against my advice (he enjoyed playing with them) for his estimate - his was an hour of moderate hitting.  Neither visit this site so they are not part of this circle jerk.
That the Joola balls are doing better now jives with the rumors I have heard that they switched manufacturers.  The 1800 player estimated his first Butterfly ball lasted about 6 hours and that it is the best ball he has owned so far, since he has not purchased any seamless or Nittaku Japan balls (like I said, he likes how the DHS ball plays).
So when other balls are lasting up to 7-12 hrs, do you really want to compare and contrast withg measurements?


So the DHS balls last ~1hr vs ~10? Anyone have tournament ball counts to verify this 10x discrepancy?

> I don't get the reason for all this back and forth - why don't we all just ignore Hex?

Generally back and forth is how discussions work. Also despite it all, the appearance that claims are rational is desirable and this perception is lost when someone is poking holes in them.

Anyone have any ball counts and/or experiences that dispute this 10x discrepancy?

The point is not that you are asking for ball counts - the question is that other than a general disrespect for the minds of others, what reason do you have to doubt the discrepancy?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:34pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

What does it really say when it's "bizarre" to try to get an idea of the aggregate expected difference instead of accepting whatever word on the street?

And how is the aggregate expected difference from any one director different from the word on the street given the standards by which it was collected?  Did you query Wturber on his methodology?

You might think you are deceiving people, but the nature of your process is pretty transparent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:41pm
> And how is the aggregate expected difference from any one director different from the word on the street given the standards by which it was collected?  Did you query Wturber on his methodology?

Is this a trick question? Your data is what's correctly deemed word on the street: anecdotal from limited parties over a limited range, prone to confirmation bias. Wturber's data is systematic over a tournament and therefore not the same thing.

Maybe is it 10x difference, but doesn't seem plausible given I've definitely used these for >1hr.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 10:57pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

> And how is the aggregate expected difference from any one director different from the word on the street given the standards by which it was collected?  Did you query Wturber on his methodology?

Is this a trick question? Your data is what's correctly deemed word on the street: anecdotal from limited parties over a limited range, prone to confirmation bias. Wturber's data is systematic over a tournament and therefore not the same thing.

Maybe is it 10x difference, but doesn't seem plausible given I've definitely used these for >1hr.

No, it's called a limited data set which might be biased even if measured accurately.  Wturber's data is larger, but has not be checked for anything that makes it clearly more rigorous than anything I have mentioned.  What I may do if our tournament director is in tomorrow is to ask him for numbers that contrast the balls we had in November vs. the balls in February.  What will be interesting is whether that result will met with another smart aleck remark or the same level of acceptance you displayed when you saw Wturber's stats.

Note that the Junior I asked bought 72 of these balls to practice for the NA teams tournament.  None of the balls survived that training period.  I bought 30, none of which survived either.  So word on the street or not, we aren't players who have just used a few of these balls.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 11:26pm
My standards in this matter aren't that high, but they're still above considering couple guys spitballing and quantitative record over a tournament the same thing.

Also, your arguments when it comes to meaningful info are honestly just terrible:
>What will be interesting is whether that result will met with another smart aleck remark or the same level of acceptance you displayed when you saw Wturber's stats.

Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds to people who can understand the distinction? And how bad it makes me look if I respect that?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 11:29pm
"So the DHS balls last ~1hr vs ~10? Anyone have tournament ball counts to verify this 10x discrepancy?"

Here is the very basic illustration of how one might see that one  DHS ball could last for, say 1 hr before breaking and the next one could last for 10 hr, and one still might conclude that in general they are worse than, say, celluloid or seamless.  In this cartoon the ball lifetime is plotted on the X-axis and the Y-axis is the percentage of balls in a large sample that lasted that have a particular lifetime. Consider that the sample 1 is a DHS 40+ and  sample 2 is some other ball, like XSF.  Not all DHS balls break in 30 min (although I have had one or two that broke that quickly).  Some will last longer.  Same with all balls, it's always been true, for any brand there is a distribution of lifetimes.  Now, when the collective experience gets sufficiently massive, as we now have for Chinese seamed balls, we are pretty sure that reality is something like the diagram below.  But no, I haven't kept careful records.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2015 at 11:58pm
That's not what NL is saying. Frankly if you believe it's higher than 1hr just say so.

In the future if you feel a need to explain how numbers work it's most beneficial to direct it at folks who might need it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 12:49am
Well your contention that a few % of difference in the properties of balls or other equipment is meaningless in table tennis suggests you need some sort of remediation.  Probably not in math, but in something for sure.

I can say that nearly all of the seamed Chinese balls I had lasted longer than 1 hr but certainly I had a couple break in less than that.  Moreover, the generation of balls made around last June typically became unplayable after 2+ hr even if they didn't fracture.  Like I said, I didn't keep detailed records.  I very much dislike playing with them and won't buy anymore until someone can show me they have improved.

The poor quality of the vast majority of seamed Chinese balls made to date is not something worth debating, it is about as well established as anything we ever talk about here, but if you like them AgentHEX, enjoy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 8:19am
The weird thing is that AgentHex repeatedly forgets that the couple of guys spitballing have bought and used more balls and play at a higher level than the average tournament does. My point is that if the tournament keeps a careful record, then it does. But the people spitballing actually invested in these balls. The tournaments often got them for free from ball manufacturers.

While I am surprised that Baal has experienced greater durability with the seamed balls that I have, my guess is that he might be more selective about the balls he chooses anyway. The number of times people at Lily Yip would just dismiss 2 thirds of the balls in a box because of roundness issues (more a DFish problem but applicable to all seamed) was funny.


Edited by NextLevel - 03/26/2015 at 11:46am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 11:16am
One thing may be that I play at a club with a soft floor, and tarps on the walls that prevents  the time the from hitting them with great force.  (They are for lighting contrast but they help with ball breakage too).  But I still know without any doubt whatsoever that the Chinese seamed balls break at a much higher rate than seamless or celluloid. It was the first thing I noticed about them. And yes, I am pretty careful to check for roundness before using a ball.  Another thing may be (and I am totally speculating here) is that it never gets very cold in Houston compared to PA. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wturber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 1:15pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Jay,  regarding NP40+ balls, my sample was less durable than XSF but my sample size is relatively small, about 24 balls, and I can't seem to buy more anyway.  Bear in mind that durability is not just how long before they break, but the condition they are in after, say, 6 hrs of play, and NP40+ look like they'be been through a war at that point and XSF have actually improved because a little of the roughness is gone.

I agree that NP40+ balls pick up dirt and look natty quickly.  In fact, they start out a duller white to begin with.  But they still played fine in my experience.  If the ball not being bright white is an issue for a player, then the NP40+'s will probably disappoint in that area.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 1:31pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

One thing may be that I play at a club with a soft floor, and tarps on the walls that prevents  the time the from hitting them with great force.  (They are for lighting contrast but they help with ball breakage too).  But I still know without any doubt whatsoever that the Chinese seamed balls break at a much higher rate than seamless or celluloid. It was the first thing I noticed about them. And yes, I am pretty careful to check for roundness before using a ball.  Another thing may be (and I am totally speculating here) is that it never gets very cold in Houston compared to PA. 

We have rubber-covered concreted floors and can sometimes hit the concrete wall with hard shots on some of our main tables.  Maybe that explains the difference in breakage rate, though it doesn't explain why our seamless balls and Nittaku Premiums tend to do relatively well.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wturber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:




Anyone have any ball counts and/or experiences that dispute this 10x discrepancy?

The point is not that you are asking for ball counts - the question is that other than a general disrespect for the minds of others, what reason do you have to doubt the discrepancy?

The point for me is that when you are paying over $2/ball, the ball should be clearly durable in a manner similar to the previous $2 celluloid balls.  Heuristic evaluation is perfectly sufficient for most situations involving table tennis balls - especially when there are good alternatives.  For large tournaments or in situations where large numbers of balls will be purchased, then something more objective/quantitative would be better.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 1:54pm
I made that point in plain English earlier bit you have to realize that its not good enough for everyone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 42andbackpains Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 2:07pm
Seamless balls are not perfect either....Probably about 1 hour in with my new Xushaofa seamless balls, cracked a ball by hitting the side of my paddle. $2.50 gone in a hour. None of the new balls seamed or seamless can compare to the old celluloid balls. Reliability is definitely a issue and we have to live with this for now until something better comes out. Unhappy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 2:20pm
Originally posted by wturber wturber wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:




Anyone have any ball counts and/or experiences that dispute this 10x discrepancy?

The point is not that you are asking for ball counts - the question is that other than a general disrespect for the minds of others, what reason do you have to doubt the discrepancy?

The point for me is that when you are paying over $2/ball, the ball should be clearly durable in a manner similar to the previous $2 celluloid balls.  Heuristic evaluation is perfectly sufficient for most situations involving table tennis balls - especially when there are good alternatives.  For large tournaments or in situations where large numbers of balls will be purchased, then something more objective/quantitative would be better.


Recall before 1hr or whatever numbers like 10/15min were bouncing around, and the new number doesn't seem much better than the old ones besides sounding at least marginally plausible.

The point is if someone respected info of this sort and repeats it, how does it make them look when it turns out it's actually let's say >3hr which would hardly be surprising. Clearly some folks don't mind being in such a position but I do.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 3:02pm
Originally posted by AgentHEX AgentHEX wrote:

Originally posted by wturber wturber wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:




Anyone have any ball counts and/or experiences that dispute this 10x discrepancy?

The point is not that you are asking for ball counts - the question is that other than a general disrespect for the minds of others, what reason do you have to doubt the discrepancy?

The point for me is that when you are paying over $2/ball, the ball should be clearly durable in a manner similar to the previous $2 celluloid balls.  Heuristic evaluation is perfectly sufficient for most situations involving table tennis balls - especially when there are good alternatives.  For large tournaments or in situations where large numbers of balls will be purchased, then something more objective/quantitative would be better.


Recall before 1hr or whatever numbers like 10/15min were bouncing around, and the new number doesn't seem much better than the old ones besides sounding at least marginally plausible.

The point is if someone respected info of this sort and repeats it, how does it make them look when it turns out it's actually let's say >3hr which would hardly be surprising. Clearly some folks don't mind being in such a position but I do.


Yes, folks like Ovtcharov clearly didn't mind being in such a position when initially practicing with the balls for the Super League.  And the pros at the German Open doubles final didn't mind turning down 3 balls as broken without using them.  Neither did many people who paid for these balls and were disappointed by how quickly they broke.
 
Who do you think your barely informed posts are fooling?  The truth is that 3.5 hours would be a pleasant surprise to most people, and would be surprising to someone who used these balls regularly.  It would mean that there have to be some really good balls whose playability lasts beyond 5 hours, probably much longer.  Maybe for balls produced this year from Butterfly and Joola, that is plausible and even reasonable, but for balls last year and even the DHS balls that I will be testing today, that is very unlikely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AgentHEX Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2015 at 3:05pm
So someone finally bothers to question how much worse it's actually supposed to be and these characters so sure of themselves for hundreds of posts over months start hand waving and lowballing. Weren't they trying to make fun of me for not knowing the answer? There's a term for honesty instead of trying to replace ignorance with conviction and it's called integrity.
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