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Juniors Rating Estimate |
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mickd
Forum Moderator Joined: 04/27/2014 Location: Japan Status: Offline Points: 1231 |
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Posted: 12/11/2017 at 5:06am |
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I really like these threads so I thought I'd start another one. There is no trick to this question!
Feel free to estimate with or without a reason! These are the two best female middle school students in my local district (9 schools). I've actually never seen black shirt lose, but I think she was having a bad day. Though pink shirt has also improved a lot recently. P.S. I do have other videos of black shirt from the past, though mostly only snippets, like a set. If you want to see more, I'll upload them.
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smackman
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These girls just do long serves the opposite spins it up and the slap slap 50 50 chance games, don't try for the wide one
(I do like their backhands spin ups) tight serves, strategy, back spin and placement would beat these girls, but I do love their open play
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pongfugrasshopper
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Their long serves do not hinder them if they are confident with what's coming back. The one in black/yellow shirt has good variation in spin and placement of her serves. Both have good footwork and nice quick, compact strokes as well. I would say between 2200-2400.
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bard romance
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As always, it's hard to come to an accurate conclusion off one video but it's especially true for this one. One would need to see a video where the two players don't have a handshake agreement to serve long and then counter at medium pace to the same two spots all game. For this reason I didn't even finish watching the video but would definitely say that 2400 is a big time overestimate. 2200-2400 is a large range. I would put them on the lower end of that range if not even less for now (and I tend to estimate high given how much worse players look on video), with the potential to go higher if I saw them playing other styles. Their shots do not have nearly the quality needed to be 2400 if they are pure countering machines and I saw a few other things i.e. failures to adjust to slight changes that would keep my estimate lower for now.
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bard romance
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Those serves would get massacred by any 2300+ attacking player that I know. Especially given the lack of a single short serve (in this clip) to keep you on your toes. Luckily they are able to get into the rallies due to lack of a real advantage being taken on the serve return.
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mickd
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Personally I think 2200+ is a little generous, but they are really good players. I definitely think they would be 2000+.
All I can say for sure is that they'd beat me quite easily... I haven't played against them personally, but I lost against black shirt's semi-finals opponent in a very close game about 6 months ago. She beat her pretty easily. I'll upload some of the match when I get a chance. I didn't take much of it, so I might only have like a set or two at most. That opponent also uses long pips on the backhand, so you can see how she deals with it (better than I do).
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bard romance
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You shouldn't post that so soon, let's see some other opinions roll in :)
How familiar are you with the USATT rating system?
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mickd
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Oh, I have no idea about it lol. So don't worry :) My guess is actually a complete guess.
I've never played in the US or played anyone who has a USATT rating! So the opinions can keep rolling in!
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pgpg
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I don't know, 2000-2100? Let me guess, they probably play each other a lot, so fall into play style they are both comfortable with.
I'm the last one to be the judge of footwork , but looks like they did not really have to move much here. Lots of bouncing up and down though. No idea how they would do if someone refuses to play the game they seem to prefer, starts serving short, playing angles, attacks their serves much more aggressively etc.
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USATT: ~1810
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balldance
Super Member Joined: 01/28/2009 Status: Offline Points: 246 |
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Likely around 2000.
It's hard to get the right rating with only one match, especially when they are familiar with each other. These young players tend to look better when they play each other. But I don't think their serves are good enough to be 2100+. And like others said, we have no idea how they would do with tricky short serves, heavy backspin or more spinny and powerful loops. |
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mhnh007
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I cannot guess the ratings, but looking at their skill, I doubt they they will have problems with short or tricky serves. At least not more than any good local player we have at club. Also note that you need to be at least a level higher to force them out of their style of play, so it’s not like any Joe can serve short, play angle, and have their game falling apart. You need to be able to play consistently at this pace or faster to force game on them, the moment they see the ball does not come back often, the attack will be stronger.
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Pushblocker
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2150 - 2200
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bard romance
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Nobody said any average joe could, but most 2000-2100 players with decent variation probably could trouble them enough. It is not true that you need to be able to hang with their speed to force them into another style of play.
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mhnh007
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Yes. Probably, but that means they are at least within this range. From what I see from various videos, players within this range are not that good in short game either. |
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mickd
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I could be wrong, but I don't think they've played each other much.
But since they both started playing at relatively serious table tennis clubs, they may have met previously in other tournaments. Black shirt is about 13 years old and pink shirt is 12. Pink shirt only entered middle school 8 months ago, so they would have met twice in the local middle school tournaments here. I actually walked into a training session from black shirt's club last year... Man was the atmosphere serious. About 20 kids practicing their serves with a bucket of balls each and 3 or 4 adults patrolling around. When I walked in, one of the older kids noticed and stopped to say good morning. Then EVERY kid stopped what they were doing, stood up straight, faced me, and said good morning. Then they all went back to serve practice. I've only heard of pink shirt's club, but I think they're a little more relaxed lol.
Edited by mickd - 12/11/2017 at 6:31pm |
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vanjr
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While I think rating adults is very, very hard, I find rating juniors (until you actually play them or they play someone you know) essentially impossible. I have seen juniors in warm up at tournaments that would swear were 2000 and then see a 800 rating by their name (and play like that). Based on location of play (Japan) alone I would give these juniors a rating north of 2000 USATT.
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mickd
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I take back what I said about them not being 2200+, because maybe they would be lol.
I found this picture of black shirt. She's the girl in the top middle. The title suggests that it's an All Japan level tournament of some sort, and they have a bronze medal around their necks. Not to mention they're on the cover lol. Edited by mickd - 12/11/2017 at 11:09pm |
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mickd
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This is all I recorded of the semi finals game of black shirt.
Her opponent is using long pips on the backhand. She won the second set pretty easily, and I don't know what happened after that, but when I started recording again in the 4th game, it appears she lost one game. Though I did say she seemed like she was having a bad day. Those 2 have played each other quite a few times and she always wins 3-0. From 1:00 there are some nicer rallies. I remember seeing one really REALLY good rally, but I wasn't recording then.
Edited by mickd - 12/12/2017 at 1:44am |
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bard romance
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After watching the second video I'd also push my estimate down to around 1800
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mickd
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I really don't think short serves would trouble them as much as you think. All opinions are welcome, though :)
They came 3rd in an all Japan club teams tournament, which is far from trivial here (that was a surprise to me). Though maybe the other juniors in the club are much stronger. I know the daughter (12 years old) of the club owner she goes recently came first in the prefecture block middle school tournament (4 prefectures), and one of the teachers I know said that she ended up coming 3rd in the all Japan tournament too. Maybe she was carried, hehe.
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APW46
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They would be chiselled out with backspin by a competent sub USATT 1800 player. Seen it all my 40 years in TT.
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pongfugrasshopper
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Just because you don't see them using a lot of backspin does not mean they are incapable of handling backspin. They are using the most effective skills for the opponent in front of them.
Call me nuts, crazy, or whatever, but I stand by my 2200-2400 estimate. This is Japan. Second only to China in womens table tennis. And these are serious table tennis students. |
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bard romance
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It is a remote part of Japan IIRC, and they are still before the age where players tend to break out. If you are judging purely off what you see in the second video and think they could be up to 2400 with noticeable technical errors (shot form and execution), lack of an attack, and ball quality that appears to be nothing special, I'd be surprised. Out of curiosity, how familiar are you with playing/observing players in the range you estimate? Here is a random video I found of players in that range, but still a level or two below 2400. What differences do you notice? In what ways do you think the girls in the video would stay in the match with either of the two male players in the other video? |
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bard romance
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Keep in mind one is a highlight video and one is not.
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mickd
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Actually, that wasn't a highlight video. But it wasn't the whole match, either. It was actually every point I recorded (nearly all of the 2nd set, and only the end of the 4th set). I didn't cut any points out. I was watching other matches, too.
Also, the long pips girl in the second video is much weaker since she doesn't play part of a club team. When she was 11, she played a year at a smaller club team (though quite strong in the area), but when she entered middle school, she stopped and only practiced at school. Her opponent (same one in the first video) plays at a serious club and started quite young, though I don't know how young. She beat all her senior high school opponents in another local tournament 2 years ago when she was 11. At the moment she is ranked 4th out of all female middle school students in the prefecture. I still don't think she'd be anywhere near the 2400 range though hehe. But anything under 2000 is a hard for me to believe.
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bard romance
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In the first video they look way better than 1800. Still no way near 2400, probably right around 2000. In the second video, they look about 1800. Different styles though.
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mickd
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The 2 girls in the second video are also from the same grade at school (which is why you're both black shirt, the school's table tennis uniform). They're friends. So I don't know if she was playing less serious after being up 2-0 and kind of gave a set to the other girl. I didn't see or record that set. Or maybe it was just because she was having a bad day.
I think the second video makes it harder to judge because the long pips girl is a few levels lower than the other girl, so there aren't really many rallies. And there also wasn't a need to play aggressive all the time. I don't think saying they is really fair because of the skill difference. In the first video the 2 girls are probably much closer in skill level, though. I do agree with your "no way near 2400" opinion tho hehe. But I think 1800, or even 1900 as an average of the 2 is on the low end. Impossible to know for sure though, which is part of the fun of these threads :)
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pongfugrasshopper
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To be clear, by 2200-2400, I mean 2200 <= player rating <= 2400 ... not up to 2499. In the random video, the guys play with far more power whereas the girls play with far more speed. So it's obviously different styles of play, but that doesn't mean the top middle school girl can't "stay in the match" with the guys. She's going to do her darndest not to allow her opponent to get into pure power play. And the guys would have to deal with her superior speed. We'll most likely never know her USATT rating is, but it's all in good fun
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APW46
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you have a point there
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