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Another Rating Estimate Thread (Again)

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    Posted: 07/29/2018 at 10:01am
Hi all! I actually really like these threads so here's another one.

This is just for fun so feel free to estimate whatever you want. If you have a reason, feel free to post that, too.

There are no right or wrong answers!

I couldn't record the whole match since I recorded this between watching my own students play.

This is the second set. I started recording from 0-3, and my camera died at 10-10, but the girl in black took the set 12-10.

I cut out the downtime, but besides that, every point is in there, even nets and lets.

By default, rate the girl in black (closer to the camera). She won the match 3-1 I think.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cole_ely Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 10:22am
Really good. 2300?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tt Gold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 12:46pm
You sure that this isn't Miu hirano? I'd say 2200 cause women table tennis always looks better, since they all play close to the table rallies. Once you start slowing the game down and looping with more spin, they usually can't adjust. Still incredible
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote APW46 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 1:07pm
Always difficult to say with Juniors, in their own niche they are comfortable, take them outside the tempo they like and they are exposed until their knowledge allows them to adapt to situations in order to win. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ZhouZhekai Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 1:11pm
1900-2000

Edited by ZhouZhekai - 07/29/2018 at 1:16pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote balldance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 1:32pm
2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote APW46 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.
 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote balldance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 2:13pm
Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.
 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.


I respect your opinion but losses and wins both count. If only the losses count, if I lose against some 2100 players, I must be worse than that regardless of my wins?
There are not a lot of players with USATT rating where I live so I have to use the ones that I know as the reference. I don't just count my wins against them, I also compare the levels, how they play with other people I know. I'm sure I'm much better than 2000, and much worse than 2300. I trust my estimate for my rating. I might estimate incorrectly other people, not myself. I've played table tennis for more than 20 years so I don't lack experience.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tinykin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.
 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.

I think that you and Richard Dewitt and Heavyspin are of similar standard. So minimum 2200 but max 2300 if playing well.
Of course it's about 4 years since I've see you playWink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote APW46 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 2:50pm
Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.
 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.


I respect your opinion but losses and wins both count. If only the losses count, if I lose against some 2100 players, I must be worse than that regardless of my wins?
There are not a lot of players with USATT rating where I live so I have to use the ones that I know as the reference. I don't just count my wins against them, I also compare the levels, how they play with other people I know. I'm sure I'm much better than 2000, and much worse than 2300. I trust my estimate for my rating. I might estimate incorrectly other people, not myself. I've played table tennis for more than 20 years so I don't lack experience.
 I'm not making a judgement, just giving you advice. Its good to rate your own performance by your losses, rather than your wins, this way you can play TT without being constantly frustrated. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Odie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 3:00pm
+2000 on footwork alone. 2100-2200, depending on oppponent.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mickd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2018 at 8:28pm
Originally posted by Tt Gold Tt Gold wrote:

You sure that this isn't Miu hirano?

She does share a lot of similarities, haha.

Most of you are actually quite consistent with the rating estimates. Keep it up!

A girl who beat me 3-0, 7-11 every set last year was badly beaten by a girl who was badly beaten by another girl who got badly beaten by this girl. That kind of makes me sad... but my goal in life (for table tennis) is to get to a level where I can beat these kids. I'll never beat them playing their game, and I'll never look as well as they do, but I'm confident given many more years of practice, I'll be able to get close...

A really good offensive long pips player I know (though he's over 60) lost to her 3-0 when she was 11 years old. She's 14 now and the rank 1 under 15 female player in my prefecture. This was the first time I saw her play.

She's going to the All Japan Middle School Competition next month.

That said, my prefecture isn't known for table tennis haha. I'm sure she'll get destroyed by the juniors in any of the major cities.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Clarence247 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/01/2018 at 9:33am
I don't know about ratings but they are just slightly above average for TRAINED players. Their Serves are not very good, and they often push the returns instead of playing more attacking strokes. They have consistency but also technical problems in the FH and BH strokes which make their shots a bit less deadly. Overall, at the place I used to train in Hungary https://www.ttcampshungary.com/ They would be still regarded as not very strong, and a lot would be done to improve them

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mickd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 11:46am
Hey Clarence247, sorry. I just noticed your post... I don't know how I missed it!

I definitely agree with you that they would be destroyed by many of the juniors at institutes like the one you went to in Hungary. They are trained, but the club they play at is far from a major table tennis powerhouse in Japan.

It's one of the better ones (maybe best) in my prefecture, but my prefecture is also one of the weakest in Japan.

The ratings are all for fun :) Impossible to say for sure. They might be 2400, they might be 1900. Impossible to tell from such a small sample. But that's all part of the estimate the rating game!

My goal is to eventually be competitive at that level. Right now I doubt I'd even get 5 points against them. Probably impossible... but hey, you never know! I'm still improving a lot every year.

I'm going to post another one of these, but this time for me within a few days. I need to organise my videos. I did one a long time ago. I wonder how the new one will compare!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote APW46 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 12:00pm
 Another mistake players often make is to judge their rating against a better players rating who they play regularly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote beeray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 12:13pm
Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

 Another mistake players often make is to judge their rating against a better players rating who they play regularly.

Familiarity is indeed a great equalizer. You can't judge your level if your only basis for comparison is the club matches you're playing. I feel like half the people you talk to at tournaments are under the impression that they're actually two levels better. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mts388 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 12:24pm
Originally posted by beeray1 beeray1 wrote:

Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

 Another mistake players often make is to judge their rating against a better players rating who they play regularly.

Familiarity is indeed a great equalizer. You can't judge your level if your only basis for comparison is the club matches you're playing. I feel like half the people you talk to at tournaments are under the impression that they're actually two levels better. 


Unlike those of us who actually are 2 levels betterLOL

I am always 2 or more levels better until my next tournament.  On the way home from a tournament I've already figured out that tomorrow I will again be 2 levels better. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote beeray1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 12:29pm
Originally posted by mts388 mts388 wrote:

Originally posted by beeray1 beeray1 wrote:

Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

 Another mistake players often make is to judge their rating against a better players rating who they play regularly.

Familiarity is indeed a great equalizer. You can't judge your level if your only basis for comparison is the club matches you're playing. I feel like half the people you talk to at tournaments are under the impression that they're actually two levels better. 


Unlike those of us who actually are 2 levels betterLOL

I am always 2 or more levels better until my next tournament.  On the way home from a tournament I've already figured out that tomorrow I will again be 2 levels better. 

haha hey you can't get anywhere without being positive I suppose
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WeebleWobble Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/10/2018 at 1:26pm
Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.

 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.


Plus those wins aren't in a tournament setting, which is just different.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote APW46 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/11/2018 at 4:26am
Originally posted by WeebleWobble WeebleWobble wrote:

Originally posted by APW46 APW46 wrote:

Originally posted by balldance balldance wrote:

2100-2200, can be higher. I estimate their rating by asking myself if I have any chance against them and I think they are just about my level. I don't have a rating but I estimate myself at 2100-2200 (I beat a few 2100-2200 players before), so they can be around 2100-2200 or higher.

 I wish I could estimate my rating on the basis of beating 'a few players' of a certain level, but 40 years of experience have told me, its best to rate yourself on your losses rather than your wins if you want accuracy.


Plus those wins aren't in a tournament setting, which is just different.
 oh yes, we all play better in our own club roomsSmile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hookumsnivy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/11/2018 at 9:54am
It's interesting that there were a lot of long serves and not a single short push. It makes me wonder about their short game
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Originally posted by hookumsnivy hookumsnivy wrote:

It's interesting that there were a lot of long serves and not a single short push. It makes me wonder about their short game

All the juniors want to get into the rally asap, so they do not serve short, but that does not mean, you can handcuff them with short game. They practice push with good placement and spin way before they learn to open attack.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hookumsnivy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/11/2018 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by mhnh007 mhnh007 wrote:

Originally posted by hookumsnivy hookumsnivy wrote:

It's interesting that there were a lot of long serves and not a single short push. It makes me wonder about their short game

All the juniors want to get into the rally asap, so they do not serve short, but that does not mean, you can handcuff them with short game. They practice push with good placement and spin way before they learn to open attack.

I can understand them wanting to get into the rally, but wouldn't they prefer to be the one to open dictate the point? By pushing long, they are letting their opponent get the 1st offensive shot and I thought that as the levels go up, the first to attack is more likely to win the point.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kolevtt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/11/2018 at 6:12pm
I still can't understand the purpose of these topics.

There is at least : National Tournaments, where everyone can check his rating, approximately.
From one side you want comparison between forum members and these players, or you want comparison between these players and TOP 10 female players?

I think the topic could be useful if you ask : What these girls need to improve to be among the best?
Otherwise you will read only the honest thoughts of some unknown forum warriors.
Not a big deal here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mickd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/12/2018 at 6:52am
Originally posted by hookumsnivy hookumsnivy wrote:

It's interesting that there were a lot of long serves and not a single short push. It makes me wonder about their short game

I can't say for sure why. I've never played against those 2 so I can't comment on how they would do against short serves. I have however played against other juniors who play the exact same style (tho 2-3 levels below those 2), and they had no trouble with the short game. I guess they both just feel so comfortable counter attacking.

Also, it wasn't like this was a for fun match. It was the finals to determine who qualifies for the All Japan Middle School Tournament to represent my prefecture. So I'm sure if the short game would have given any of them a huge advantage, they would have used more.

I have the contact details of another girl from the same club (though not as strong as them), so maybe I'll ask her. She also plays that style.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mickd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08/12/2018 at 6:59am
Originally posted by kolevtt kolevtt wrote:

I still can't understand the purpose of these topics.

There is at least : National Tournaments, where everyone can check his rating, approximately.
From one side you want comparison between forum members and these players, or you want comparison between these players and TOP 10 female players?

I think the topic could be useful if you ask : What these girls need to improve to be among the best?
Otherwise you will read only the honest thoughts of some unknown forum warriors.
Not a big deal here.

Hi kolevtt. These threads I make are just for fun. I mentioned that in the OP. I don't know them personally, so I'm not looking for advice to give them or anything. I just enjoy having the extra discussion on the forum, and I hope others do too.

I think it's healthy for the forum if its members were able to just have a chat about random things, too (like this thread). Just think of it like a bunch of guys who enjoy table tennis having a BBQ while talking about random stuff. Then this video pops up and we have a little discussion. Nothing serious :)
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