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Lily and the 2020 Olympics

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DonnOlsen View Drop Down
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    Posted: 09/10/2019 at 8:37am
Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,
Donn

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 9:04am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

A lot will come down to the World rankings if they keep the current Olympics game team/singles qualification criteria.  But if they change the criteria, it might be one tournament in California or Vegas.

For me actually, the most interesting problem is how well Amy Wang plays doubles if she makes the team.


Edited by NextLevel - 09/10/2019 at 9:06am
I like putting heavy topspin on the ball...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DonnOlsen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 9:47am
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

A lot will come down to the World rankings if they keep the current Olympics game team/singles qualification criteria.  But if they change the criteria, it might be one tournament in California or Vegas.

For me actually, the most interesting problem is how well Amy Wang plays doubles if she makes the team.

Thanks.

With her recent results, Amy Wang is our shooting star in singles.  When Rachel Sung beat Amy at the last Olympic trials, I saw Rachel as the "Next Big Thing."  I was wrong in that prediction.

If we look at the top line up of the U.S. women, we have Liu Juan, Lily, Jennifer, Crystal, and Amy.  Now, I put Amy third on this list.  This is impressive indeed.

Your concern concerning Amy's doubles is a point well taken.

Thanks again,
Donn

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 10:32am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

A lot will come down to the World rankings if they keep the current Olympics game team/singles qualification criteria.  But if they change the criteria, it might be one tournament in California or Vegas.

For me actually, the most interesting problem is how well Amy Wang plays doubles if she makes the team.

Thanks.

With her recent results, Amy Wang is our shooting star in singles.  When Rachel Sung beat Amy at the last Olympic trials, I saw Rachel as the "Next Big Thing."  I was wrong in that prediction.

If we look at the top line up of the U.S. women, we have Liu Juan, Lily, Jennifer, Crystal, and Amy.  Now, I put Amy third on this list.  This is impressive indeed.

Your concern concerning Amy's doubles is a point well taken.

Thanks again,
Things are starting to get really interesting in the World Ranking race between Wu Yue and Lily Zhang.  Here is my calculation for 2019 rankings points for each:

WU Yue
2019 - ITTF World Tour, Hungarian Open, Budapest (HUN)  World_Tour      360
    2019 - ITTF-Panam Cup, Guaynabo (PUR)   Continental Champs_Cup          1170
    I believe only one result can be used between Pan Am Cup/Championship according
    to the 2019 ITTF World Ranking Regulation (someone please correct me if I'm wrong):
3.6. Maximum one continental event counts out of the singles continental championships, team continental championships and continental cup for seniors.
    2019 - ITTF Challenge Plus, Portugal Open, Lisbon (POR) Challenge Plus  220 (not top 8)
2019 - ITTF Challenge Plus, Oman Open, Muscat (OMA) Challenge Plus      330
2019 - ITTF Challenge, Slovenia Open, Otocec (SLO)  Challenge           255
2019 - ITTF Challenge, Croatia Open, Zagreb (CRO)   Challenge           340
2019 - ITTF World Tour Platinum, Qatar Open, Doha (QAT) Platinum        450
2019 - World Table Tennis Championships, Budapest (HUN) WTTC            900
2019 - Pan American Games, Lima (PER)   Continental Games               930
2019 - ITTF Pan American Championships, Asuncion (PAR)                  1170
                                                                        ====
                                                                        4735
ZHANG Lily
2019 - ITTF World Tour, Hungarian Open, Budapest (HUN)  World_Tour      270
    2019 - ITTF-Panam Cup, Guaynabo (PUR)   Continental Champs_Cup          900
    (superseded by Pan Am Champs result)
2019 - ITTF Challenge Plus, Portugal Open, Lisbon (POR) Challenge Plus  330
2019 - ITTF Challenge, Spanish Open, Guadalajara (ESP)  Challenge       170
2019 - World Table Tennis Championships, Budapest (HUN) WTTC            600
2019 - ITTF Challenge, Slovenia Open, Otocec (SLO)  Challenge           425
2019 - ITTF World Tour Platinum, Japan Open, Sapporo (JPN)  Platinum    450
2019 - Pan American Games, Lima (PER)   Continental Games               665
2019 - ITTF Pan American Championships, Asuncion (PAR)                  1800
                                                                        ====
                                                                        4710

China gave Lily a Wild Card for the 2019 Women's World Cup so that changed everything!  There's a very real possibility now that Lily will surpass Wu Yue in the ranking race. What's also going to be interesting is how many matches each player is going to get to play at the World Team Cup in November.  Each win is worth 250 points.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 3:52pm
Here's an interesting what-if scenario to think about.  We all know that Juan Liu is the best female player in the USA, right?  The most likely scenario is that Juan Liu wins the trials, either Wu Yue or Lily get in by ranking, and the loser of the two has to compete on discretionary selection with Amy.

However, let's say Lily Zhang makes the team by beating out Wu Yue in the rankings race.  Now what if Juan Liu get's injured just prior to the Olympic Trials and Amy Wang wins the Olympic Trials.  Do you now select Juan Liu or Wu Yue as the 3rd player?  Juan Liu is clearly a far better player than Wu Yue, and I might even go as far as saying if everything turned out in her perfectly in her favor, she has a shot at Bronze.  Most players would not be terribly familiar with her style and that may cause problems for them not to mention she's a 2700 level player.  You add in the pressure of the Olympics and anything can happen.  OTOH, Wu Yue clearly has most of the bullet points listed in discretionary selection.  Though you can still justify Juan Liu based on her dominant result at the last Adult Ranking Tournament.  You could swap Wu Yue and Lily Zhang but the conundrum would be the same.  And as NextLevel mentioned above, we don't even know if USATT will keep the current selection criteria.  Interesting times.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 4:04pm
Juan Liu will be US only chance in women tt top 16. I don't think anyone else has any chances to beat China and Japan players in olympics. True, Lily , Yue or Amy has good ittf ranking in Pan Am events. But can they beat chinese or japanese good players? I don't think so.  For men's side, it will be even worse. kanak cannot win top 32 players recently. I don't think they have any chances at all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 4:52pm
Juan Liu has not seen World competition for a very long time, i would group her in with "she's a very good American female player" now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 4:57pm
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Juan Liu has not seen World competition for a very long time, i would group her in with "she's a very good American female player" now.


You know who has seen world competition? Ricardo Walther, a top 50 mens player in the world, who she played very respectably. Daniel Gorak, a French and Euro league player who she beat. He Zhiwen, who she beat. Lily and Wu Yue, who she beat comfortably. She clearly has the pedigree, no need to overthink this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/10/2019 at 6:00pm
Originally posted by bard romance bard romance wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Juan Liu has not seen World competition for a very long time, i would group her in with "she's a very good American female player" now.


You know who has seen world competition? Ricardo Walther, a top 50 mens player in the world, who she played very respectably. Daniel Gorak, a French and Euro league player who she beat. He Zhiwen, who she beat. Lily and Wu Yue, who she beat comfortably. She clearly has the pedigree, no need to overthink this.
She won the 2018 US Open as well.
I like putting heavy topspin on the ball...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zeio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 12:22am
Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.
Viscaria FL - 91g
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 8:15am
Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.

I understand where you are coming from but Juan Liu is strong enough to get two matches vs most of those teams.  It all depends on whether Lily or Jennifer or Amy can get one.
I like putting heavy topspin on the ball...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 8:46am
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by bard romance bard romance wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Juan Liu has not seen World competition for a very long time, i would group her in with "she's a very good American female player" now.


You know who has seen world competition? Ricardo Walther, a top 50 mens player in the world, who she played very respectably. Daniel Gorak, a French and Euro league player who she beat. He Zhiwen, who she beat. Lily and Wu Yue, who she beat comfortably. She clearly has the pedigree, no need to overthink this.
She won the 2018 US Open as well.

like i said and you're both pointing out, "a very good American female player" ;)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 10:09am
Seems like an arbitrary criticism, what about her makes you think she won’t be successful at the international women’s level? Does she have some tendency to fold under pressure you’ve noticed? You think she isn’t experienced enough? Or are you just throwing out some generality about “international experience” despite her skill level being right up there?

Edited by bard romance - 09/11/2019 at 10:10am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 10:18am
My memory that he only supports Canada players, for example Eugene Wang or Mo Zhang. I saw part Mo Zhang vs Lily Zhang's game. Mo looks frustrated and has no chance from her face.

Edited by mentortt - 09/11/2019 at 10:20am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote amateur Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 10:55am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Lily won the Pan Am Championships, not the Pan Am Games.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jackwong23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 12:18pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.

I understand where you are coming from but Juan Liu is strong enough to get two matches vs most of those teams.  It all depends on whether Lily or Jennifer or Amy can get one.

I think team USA can beat any team out there 
except China, Japan and  South Korea. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 12:55pm
some people have a difficult time NOT reading too much into a simple statement and then choose to add their own opinions into that simple statement


yes i do support only Canada players...like Dan Seemiller but wait did he change citizenship?

Juan Liu is a "GOOD AMERICAN FEMALE TT Player" let's see how you read into that again? Disapprove
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:00pm
It’s not people reading into it too much, perhaps your lack of writing skills - your post clearly insinuates that, for reasons unstated, Liu Juan would not be successful against international competition. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:27pm
Originally posted by bard romance bard romance wrote:

It’s not people reading into it too much, perhaps your lack of writing skills - your post clearly insinuates that, for reasons unstated, Liu Juan would not be successful against international competition. 

would you like to quote that "insinuation" then read it a few times before getting too defensive of a "simple statement"

you know when you "attack" someone based on misreading a "simple statement" is  a sign of ...maybe you'd like to finish that statement too? since you seem to have a better grasp of my first language?


Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/11/2019 at 1:28pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:35pm
Alright, since you aren’t trying to imply anything else, thank you for your valuable contribution to the conversation. 

Ma Long is a very good Chinese player. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 2:28pm
ending a "discussion with an insult" is very "big of you" shows maturity in your character...yes i do agreed Ma Long is a very good Chinese TT player.

Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/11/2019 at 2:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 3:08pm
Not sure why you feel so victimized - if you really weren’t trying to imply anything else in your initial post then I think we can agree it was a pretty pointless contribution to the discussion - clearly stating the obvious. If there was something else you were trying to say with the post, then feel free to elaborate. 

If English is your first language and you can’t see why your post was interpreted by several people to mean you doubt Liu Juan’s chances of international success, then...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 10:19am
Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.
Just to clarify, I'm saying there's the possibility of going one step further than what USA's Wang Chen did in 2008 (QF). If fortunate enough not to meet China early and a good draw, she would have to beat someone like Miu Hirano or Kasumi to get to a semifinal ensuring at least a shot at bronze. And let's not forget that Juan Liu is a very experienced ex-CNT player. No one heard of Kim Hyang Mi before she won a silver medal in singles at the 2004 Athens Olympics. Even though the probability is low, surprises do happen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kindof99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 10:53am
To be honest, I don't see much chance for Juan Liu either. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:07am
Agree. I hope Juan Liu can play Kanak or Nikil to see if she is 2700 level or not.
USATT rating is much more accurate than ITTF ranking. 

Originally posted by kindof99 kindof99 wrote:

To be honest, I don't see much chance for Juan Liu either. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:08am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:21am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:00am
Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 


i am going by this...



"We can send a full team of three athletes, either men or women or both, by winning the 2019
ITTF North American Olympic Team Qualification (October 5, 2019) or through the 2020 ITTF
World Team Qualification (January 21-26, 2020). The first is likely easier, because all we have
to do is beat Canada in a team match. That’s not to dismiss Canada, only to say that the second
qualification event will include every other country in the world that doesn’t have a full team
yet. So we could do this either way, beating Canada or taking on a bunch of other countries for
a limited number of extra team positions the ITTF will offer."


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:36am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 


i am going by this...



"We can send a full team of three athletes, either men or women or both, by winning the 2019
ITTF North American Olympic Team Qualification (October 5, 2019) or through the 2020 ITTF
World Team Qualification (January 21-26, 2020). The first is likely easier, because all we have
to do is beat Canada in a team match. That’s not to dismiss Canada, only to say that the second
qualification event will include every other country in the world that doesn’t have a full team
yet. So we could do this either way, beating Canada or taking on a bunch of other countries for
a limited number of extra team positions the ITTF will offer."


Right, that emphasizes what I mentioned above.  If we beat Canada, we get to send a full team of three to the Olympics, but it does not guarantee Lily(Edit: or anyone else for that matter) a spot on the team which is what is in question.


Edited by pongfugrasshopper - 09/13/2019 at 9:46am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ttforlife Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:45am
How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?
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