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Virus response: Clubs doing anything different?

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Topic: Virus response: Clubs doing anything different?
Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Subject: Virus response: Clubs doing anything different?
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 10:56am
Just wondering if any clubs have taken any actions to minimize risk for people playing at local clubs? 

Seems obvious to provide hand sanitizer (if you can find it right now) and possibly have a handout with tips to minimize risk (fist bump instead of handshake, etc.). 

Curious what’s going on in your club...


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Lee



Replies:
Posted By: Lightspin
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 11:48am
Nothing out of the ordinary here except a few clients are canceling lessons over concerns about the virus.  


Posted By: CraigKid333
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 12:21pm
It seems to me it will be fairly difficult to deal with.
At the very least, every two points the ball is being touched by the other player and could be every point.
Players tend to touch the table (near the net) in the same general area.
Players sweat goes literally all over!
I'm not sure how you can control these things with no handshake and hand sanitizer?
There are probably a dozen other things I haven't even thought of.
But I am NOT advocating for canceling play.
Maybe that makes me crazy?  lol




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If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice!


Posted By: mts388
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 12:53pm
We're not doing anything about it.  I think the media is making a bigger deal out of it than it really is.  When the media scares you, they control you.


Posted By: skip3119
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 2:52pm
There is no change in our club.  Life goes on as usual.


Posted By: Simon_plays
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 5:54pm
Our league has recommended the elbow touch instead of a handshake. 


Posted By: jt99sf
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 6:05pm
Originally posted by skip3119 skip3119 wrote:

There is no change in our club.  Life goes on as usual.

+1 Tongue


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Photino /TBS Black Tag: D05 (FH)/Attack 8 pips(BH)

林德成 HardBat:Hock 3-Ply /Dr Evil


Posted By: mickd
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 7:16pm
Some changes in Japan. A lot of local clubs in my area have barred school students from participating for the time being. So far it's set to the same period as school are closed for.

There is however a little more risk here in Japan.


Posted By: heavyspin
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 7:57pm
A NY club cancelled its tournament for this Sunday.

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Physicists never throw away old sheets of Butterfly rubber because Tenergy must be conserved.


Posted By: jfolsen
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 8:07pm
We have had a note up for a while at the club saying if you have traveled to mainland China to please quarantine for two weeks before coming to play. But no, not any real change.


Posted By: mickd
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 8:09pm
Originally posted by heavyspin heavyspin wrote:

A NY club cancelled its tournament for this Sunday.

That reminds me... both local tournaments this month were cancelled too. Probably the same for a lot of areas in Japan.


Posted By: Purett
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 10:47pm
in our club we give hugs and kissesLOL

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rating solid 1000
moving up to 1001


Posted By: mts388
Date Posted: 03/05/2020 at 11:19pm
Originally posted by Purett Purett wrote:

in our club we give hugs and kissesLOL

Is yours an all male club?


Posted By: BH-Man
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 3:17am
California is in state of emergency over corona.

I played in a huge tourney last weekend.

Our local club has a double tourney in a few weeks. A week after that, there is a teams tourney in my city that maybe 100 players attend.

3 firefighters in the city with the 1st California death involving corona infected man had a serious overnight cleaning of some schools.

League happened in our local club with around 40-50 players.

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Korea Foreign Table Tennis Club
Search for us on Facebook: koreaforeignttc


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 4:00am
Early stages still in the US.


Posted By: AndySmith
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 4:38am
Originally posted by mts388 mts388 wrote:

We're not doing anything about it.  I think the media is making a bigger deal out of it than it really is.  When the media scares you, they control you.

Contrarian rubbish like this can only contribute to unnecessary spreading of the virus.  You aren't being asked to do much extra at the moment - wash your hands more, avoid too much physical contact with others.  Ignore the media saturation if you want - fair enough- but please put more effort in.  Every little piece of effort made by every individual reduces the overall risk of transmitting the virus, slowing its progress, and potentially avoiding infecting others.

One of the biggest dangers is rampant "mah media" groupthink.  It's possible to be anti-media (whatever your reason might be), while still understanding that citizens have a collective responsibility here.  Just bypass the media and look at the medical advice directly if you feel more comfortable.  Then wash your hands and think about how your behaviour might be impacting those around you.  But don't make others suffer so you can make some sort of point about "the media".


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This was a great signature until I realised it was overrated.


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 10:12am
I'm not a virologist or an epidemiologist but I teach at a medical school.

One of the things to keep in mind is that based on clinical data from other countries, somewhere just under 18% of cases are "serious" or "critical"*.  Serious means you have pneumonia that requires hospitalization.  Critical means you are in an ICU attached to a respirator and your odds of survival are a coin toss.  So even if you don't die this virus is no joke, and if you don't have health insurance in the US and end up for a week in the hospital you are going to be financially screwed.  Remember, humans don't have very much built up immunity to this thing.  And the US health system has never dealt with something quite like this before (in contrast to Asia, where they had prior experience with SARS1).

So it pays to take reasonable precautions.  I advise taking this very seriously.  To say this is some sort of media hoax is misguided. 

*  It is as far as I know impossible to say if that same proportion will hold true in the US, but it could.


Posted By: liulin04
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 2:31pm
i've stopped playing for about 3 months now, not worth the risks.

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Posted By: stiltt
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 4:24pm
Load nuts, oat meal, cans, tp up and stay home if you can afford it, it does add up to the safe measures, one person at a time, it does reduce overall risk. In WA state we have this:
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-04/kirkland-washington-coronavirus" rel="nofollow - https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-04/kirkland-washington-coronavirus

Easy to pretend that the media is exaggerating, they always do but if this is a flu like epidemic, and flu kills many people every year, this one scares me way more than ever.

I recommend watching this video, it's the best explanation of how that virus works I got so far, brilliant young men!!!

All we can do best right now is eating anything that strengthen our immune system. There are plenty of websites that lists foods that do that. This is the moment to be healthy so let's get ready to battle if needed and eat the good stuff!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTYfke545vI" rel="nofollow - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTYfke545vI




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Posted By: Lightspin
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 6:00pm
In the last week there have been 3 large exhibitions at clubs in the area.  People aren't shaking hands as much but they are still showing up.  The organizers didn't even consider cancelling the events. 


Posted By: Egghead
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 6:18pm
Originally posted by jt99sf jt99sf wrote:

Originally posted by skip3119 skip3119 wrote:

There is no change in our club.  Life goes on as usual.

+1 Tongue
+1
Just a notes posted outside: "Don't come in to play if you hv flu symptoms or have been to China, JPN .... in the last few weeks " (someting like that)


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Aurora ST: Rhyzm / Talent OX


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/06/2020 at 9:41pm
Hi,

The Maryland Table Tennis Center - MDTTC - canceled their Friday League today due to the Corona.

Thanks.


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"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: Veet
Date Posted: 03/07/2020 at 2:52am
At our club, we've have made it mandatory to boil players, before letting them into the play-area .. 


Posted By: Simas
Date Posted: 03/07/2020 at 3:20pm
Originally posted by Veet Veet wrote:

At our club, we've have made it mandatory to boil players, before letting them into the play-area .. 
Drop here!

I've doubled on my hourly absinthe intake. Heard that alcohol of 70% and up kills the virus.

On more serious note, no, nothing has changed in my club. I myself try to wash hands often and carefully and not to touch my face (that's harder done than said). Also, there are alcohol tissues at the club to clean surfaces, so I try to use them more often.

If the things go south, I will stop going to the club as I can work from home and stay low for some time. I have some food reserves and respirators too...


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Stiga Offensive Classic Legend
DHS Hurricane Neo3
Donic Bluefire JP01 Turbo


Posted By: AndySmith
Date Posted: 03/07/2020 at 3:37pm
It doesn't matter how proud you are, or how stoic you feel, or if you think you're somehow more of a rugged stud than all these snowflakes who are warning of the dangers.  It's a virus, highly contagious, with a mortality rate much higher than flu.  Pretending it isn't and carrying on as normal is just going to increase the spread of it, so more people will die.  That's all.  No grey areas.  The end.

Italy's latest stats are really bad, and they're reacted to it in a serious way.  The worst thing Italians could do would be to say "it's just the flu" and ignore all that their government is trying to do to slow the spread of the virus.

The worst thing is that slowing the initial spread is quite simple with basic hygiene procedures.  But no - there's always a bunch of hardcore contrarians who are just desperate to contort themselves in knots to ignore the advice coming from health professionals.  "I'm going to shake everyone's hand just to prove a point!".  Of course, there's no way to know how many people you might infect, or how many people those people might infect, so there's no definitive way to link a specific person's incredible hubris and selfishness to another person's poor outcome 2 or 3 degrees of separation away.  But make no mistake - all you do is increase the risk to everyone around you in an increasing sphere of influence.  You may be healthy, get infected, recover, and say "what was all the fuss about".  But you'll never know about the 10 people you infected because you refused to wash your hands more often.  And the 100 people those 10 people infected.  And statistically, over 3 of those 100 people will be dead as the current state of the data shows (changing all the time of course).

Don't panic.  Wash your hands.  Follow the advice given by your local health agencies.  Save lives, although you'll never know the people you save and they won't know you.

Italy - Day 15 - Infected 5061 - Deaths 233


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This was a great signature until I realised it was overrated.


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/07/2020 at 3:50pm
Here’s an article on how Yoga Studios and Gyms are dealing with the virus:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/how-gyms-and-yoga-studios-are-preparing-for-the-coronavirus/2020/03/06/c6ea033e-5f26-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html" rel="nofollow - https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/how-gyms-and-yoga-studios-are-preparing-for-the-coronavirus/2020/03/06/c6ea033e-5f26-11ea-b29b-9db42f7803a7_story.html

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Lee


Posted By: stiltt
Date Posted: 03/07/2020 at 5:37pm
Originally posted by AndySmith AndySmith wrote:

It doesn't matter how proud you are, or how stoic you feel, or if you think you're somehow more of a rugged stud than all these snowflakes who are warning of the dangers.  It's a virus, highly contagious, with a mortality rate much higher than flu.  Pretending it isn't and carrying on as normal is just going to increase the spread of it, so more people will die.  That's all.  No grey areas.  The end.

Italy's latest stats are really bad, and they're reacted to it in a serious way.  The worst thing Italians could do would be to say "it's just the flu" and ignore all that their government is trying to do to slow the spread of the virus.

The worst thing is that slowing the initial spread is quite simple with basic hygiene procedures.  But no - there's always a bunch of hardcore contrarians who are just desperate to contort themselves in knots to ignore the advice coming from health professionals.  "I'm going to shake everyone's hand just to prove a point!".  Of course, there's no way to know how many people you might infect, or how many people those people might infect, so there's no definitive way to link a specific person's incredible hubris and selfishness to another person's poor outcome 2 or 3 degrees of separation away.  But make no mistake - all you do is increase the risk to everyone around you in an increasing sphere of influence.  You may be healthy, get infected, recover, and say "what was all the fuss about".  But you'll never know about the 10 people you infected because you refused to wash your hands more often.  And the 100 people those 10 people infected.  And statistically, over 3 of those 100 people will be dead as the current state of the data shows (changing all the time of course).

Don't panic.  Wash your hands.  Follow the advice given by your local health agencies.  Save lives, although you'll never know the people you save and they won't know you.

Italy - Day 15 - Infected 5061 - Deaths 233
My thoughts, exactly. We are living scary times and we need to trust our fellow more than ever at the same time they trust us to do the right thing: minimizing risk.

Let's stay home if we can and wait, that's the only way the black plague in the middle age eventually stopped spreading, I understand the 2 diseases are not the same at all but the strategy to contain them presents the same simplicity: don't go out, stay home.

In modern "zero stock" Toyota like strategies, the food chain might suffer so loading the shelves up with food that does not waste is a good idea. 

It's not panic, we just make sure we are not a concern for anybody else at the same time we maximize our chances  to stay healthy, we isolate ourselves and wait for better days.

For those who must go out to work, avoiding physical contact and washing hands often is key as we know. I am not sure how useful those masks are if an infected person coughs and sneezes close to us but at least it shows that the person is willing to do something and wants to stay away. There is no such thing too little precaution here.

Best wishes to all and their loved ones.



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Posted By: blahness
Date Posted: 03/08/2020 at 6:44pm
I stopped playing TT at clubs pretty much and am now just focusing on my piano YouTube channel :)




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Hurricane Long 5

FH: Hurricane 3 Provincial Blue Sponge
BH: Dignics 09c


Posted By: vanjr
Date Posted: 03/09/2020 at 10:39am
I am into elbow bumps after matches. I would not be surprised if more events are cancelled. If you have a robot at home you should be good and maybe gain a few rating points once things blow over...If they blow over. 


Posted By: pgpg
Date Posted: 03/09/2020 at 10:45am
Originally posted by vanjr vanjr wrote:

I am into elbow bumps after matches. I would not be surprised if more events are cancelled. If you have a robot at home you should be good and maybe gain a few rating points once things blow over...If they blow over. 

People were doing 'air fist bumps', 'elbow bumps', and 'foot shakes' at the club yesterday. It was full as usual, though.


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USATT: ~1840
Nittaku Shake Defense - Fastarc G1 - Dtecs OX


Posted By: BH-Man
Date Posted: 03/09/2020 at 12:16pm
Dammit Pg, I never can get to the club when you and JimT are there, although you show up when I ask when I visit. I was fist bumping from years ago, I think it is more powerful than a handshake. Still, it is touching of wet to wet.

Maybe us TTers can adopt some Asian ways of bowing at a distance after going to attention first.

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Korea Foreign Table Tennis Club
Search for us on Facebook: koreaforeignttc


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/09/2020 at 12:39pm
The foot shake is a fun alternative to the fist bump:  https://youtu.be/l2-Yui6PdWI" rel="nofollow - https://youtu.be/l2-Yui6PdWI



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Lee


Posted By: igorponger
Date Posted: 03/09/2020 at 1:57pm
POOR KNOWLEDGE IS A DANGEROUS THING.
http://frstephensmuts.wordpress.com/2011/01/07/communion-by-machine/" rel="nofollow">


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/10/2020 at 10:50pm
I spent the day recording lectures I can put on line in anticipation that my university will suspend in person classes soon. We've been told to do this.


Posted By: stiltt
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 12:05am
My 19yo college girl is coming back home this week from NYC and will follow all of her classes online until April (not her choice, not her parents' either), many schools around the country will probably do the same. 

Edit: Seattle School district just closed all their schools until April. My 13yo middle school younger daughter and her mom following a high school schedule will join me at home for at least 2 weeks. Not the family vacation I planned but like in backgammon, I'll deal with whatever life rolls at me.




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Posted By: Jackcerry
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 6:21am
in Italy we can’t go out from home except for work or important motivations, police will stop you and ask you why you are around. Table tennis and all sports activities suspended till 5 April or more


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 9:53am
We’ve been lucky so far here in Austin, no confirmed cases yet, at least that I know of. But SXSW has been cancelled and that’s a huge deal. Yesterday in the news, a Dell employee returning to India was tested positive after visiting a Dell venue in the Austin area, among other places. Because some of our members work at Dell, or other similar IT companies (who have now told their people to work from home) the threat is becoming more real. Now it seems very likely that at some point the club will need to shut down for a while...

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Lee


Posted By: Fulanodetal
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 5:50pm
Im a teacher too. My lectures are on PDF, and my students have access to them online over our network.

We cannot afford a 2 week closure. Our schedule is pretty tight.

I have been wondering what we would have to do in case we need to close for a couple of weeks. It is hard to plan for a contingency situation when you don't know when the closure may happen. Pretty frustrating.

We had to cancel a graduation ceremony already.

Interesting times.

FdT


Posted By: mickd
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 8:03pm
Imagine our surprise in Japan when the prime minister suddenly announced on national TV on like a Thursday night that all schools should close for a month from Monday onward. There was no warning at all.


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 8:17pm
Originally posted by Fulanodetal Fulanodetal wrote:

Im a teacher too. My lectures are on PDF, and my students have access to them online over our network.

We cannot afford a 2 week closure. Our schedule is pretty tight.

I have been wondering what we would have to do in case we need to close for a couple of weeks. It is hard to plan for a contingency situation when you don't know when the closure may happen. Pretty frustrating.

We had to cancel a graduation ceremony already.

Interesting times.

FdT

I got word an hour ago that my university is closing down in person for at least two weeks. I was quite  sure this would happen. I have been busy recording lectures.  It is weird doing it into a machine.


Posted By: Egghead
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 8:30pm
Originally posted by Fulanodetal Fulanodetal wrote:

Im a teacher too. My lectures are on PDF, and my students have access to them online over our network.

We cannot afford a 2 week closure. Our schedule is pretty tight.

I have been wondering what we would have to do in case we need to close for a couple of weeks. It is hard to plan for a contingency situation when you don't know when the closure may happen. Pretty frustrating.

We had to cancel a graduation ceremony already.

Interesting times.

FdT
Are you sure? I remember, in canada, schools or universities usually have a few weeks closure once in a while because of labor dispute Wink


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Aurora ST: Rhyzm / Talent OX


Posted By: notfound123
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by pgpg pgpg wrote:

Originally posted by vanjr vanjr wrote:

I am into elbow bumps after matches. I would not be surprised if more events are cancelled. If you have a robot at home you should be good and maybe gain a few rating points once things blow over...If they blow over. 

People were doing 'air fist bumps', 'elbow bumps', and 'foot shakes' at the club yesterday. It was full as usual, though.

All leagues cancelled.. we just train and play friendlies instead


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VKMO | V>15 Extra | Curl P4 1.0


Posted By: Egghead
Date Posted: 03/11/2020 at 9:48pm
Originally posted by notfound123 notfound123 wrote:

Originally posted by pgpg pgpg wrote:

Originally posted by vanjr vanjr wrote:

I am into elbow bumps after matches. I would not be surprised if more events are cancelled. If you have a robot at home you should be good and maybe gain a few rating points once things blow over...If they blow over. 

People were doing 'air fist bumps', 'elbow bumps', and 'foot shakes' at the club yesterday. It was full as usual, though.

All leagues cancelled.. we just train and play friendlies instead
NBA suspending all games until further notice. DeadDeadDeadDeadDead


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Aurora ST: Rhyzm / Talent OX


Posted By: Lightspin
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 11:19am
A local club went from always open to open only for private lessons yesterday.


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 11:41am
Originally posted by Lightspin Lightspin wrote:

A local club went from always open to open only for private lessons yesterday.

Where are you located?


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Lee


Posted By: mts388
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 11:54am
At the two clubs where I play, attendance has been at an all time high.  Not sure why, but for the first time we have a table shortage problem.  

Since this is a virus that primarily affects old people with serious health problems, why are schools shutting down?


Posted By: Lightspin
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 1:21pm
Topspin in New Jersey also just closed.

Kids can have the corona virus and show no symptoms apparently.  If kids have it they can then pass it on to people in the 80+ category where this virus can be a big problen.


Posted By: sunny
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 2:33pm
I just withdrew from tournament and am stopping playing in the club since I take care of elderly parents, our lives are changing for the time being. 


Posted By: BRS
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 2:39pm
If our local club has to close for any significant length of time it may go under.  One guy runs it on a shoestring as a second job.  And drop-in fees are a big chunk of his revenue.  

Unless his landlord would waive the rent.  But they could easily go out if business too if they did that.  

The economy in places like this is kind of hollow.  There is a lot of activity but many of the participants are weak.  


Posted By: Fulanodetal
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 6:19pm
Oh, when I say we cannot afford to close, it is not for financial reasons. As I said, it is because our schedule is so tight! I would have to eliminate one or two assignments, and redistribute the grading values per assignment, and do other re-arranging. Quite a pain in the ass.

But how do I do this if I don't know which weeks will be affected?!? Argh!

This is a private school. It's an Post Secondary College.

FdT


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 7:23pm
Originally posted by mts388 mts388 wrote:

At the two clubs where I play, attendance has been at an all time high.  Not sure why, but for the first time we have a table shortage problem.  

Since this is a virus that primarily affects old people with serious health problems, why are schools shutting down?


Older people die, but younger people can certainly get the virus and spread it to other people (and may not know they have it, since they show few if any symptoms).  The only way to stop the virus from spreading is to keep people from congregating.  That is why shutting down schools is an essential step.  Imagine a little ten year old gets the virus, spreads it to family, and grandfather dies, or dad ends up in the hospital but he doesn't have health insurance.  We don't want that to happen.

If you want to know how bad this could get, in one city in Italy, where I have a clinician colleague, the hospital is setting up makeshift ICU units in hallways.  Their system is completely overwhelmed by this.  We are not well prepared and it could happen here unless we get ahead of this thing as soon as we can.

Right now there is only ONE way to fight this, it is the same way humans have resisted plagues for millenia:  Don't aggregate in large groups.  Don't let it spread. 


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 7:41pm
Originally posted by MrLee4ATTC MrLee4ATTC wrote:

We’ve been lucky so far here in Austin, no confirmed cases yet, at least that I know of. But SXSW has been cancelled and that’s a huge deal. Yesterday in the news, a Dell employee returning to India was tested positive after visiting a Dell venue in the Austin area, among other places. Because some of our members work at Dell, or other similar IT companies (who have now told their people to work from home) the threat is becoming more real. Now it seems very likely that at some point the club will need to shut down for a while...


I would bet a fortune that there are people in Austin who have this virus and don't know it.  So be safe!

Edit added:  Ohio Health Dept. Director Amy Acton is saying that evidence of community spread indicates that 1% of Ohioans are currently carrying coronavirus. That's 117,000 people.  Only 5 in Ohio have actually tested positive to this point.

Bear in mind that as of a few hours ago, only 1,800 people in the entire US had been tested!!!!!


Posted By: blahness
Date Posted: 03/12/2020 at 8:13pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Originally posted by mts388 mts388 wrote:

At the two clubs where I play, attendance has been at an all time high.  Not sure why, but for the first time we have a table shortage problem.  

Since this is a virus that primarily affects old people with serious health problems, why are schools shutting down?


Older people die, but younger people can certainly get the virus and spread it to other people (and may not know they have it, since they show few if any symptoms).  The only way to stop the virus from spreading is to keep people from congregating.  That is why shutting down schools is an essential step.  Imagine a little ten year old gets the virus, spreads it to family, and grandfather dies, or dad ends up in the hospital but he doesn't have health insurance.  We don't want that to happen.

If you want to know how bad this could get, in one city in Italy, where I have a clinician colleague, the hospital is setting up makeshift ICU units in hallways.  Their system is completely overwhelmed by this.  We are not well prepared and it could happen here unless we get ahead of this thing as soon as we can.

Right now there is only ONE way to fight this, it is the same way humans have resisted plagues for millenia:  Don't aggregate in large groups.  Don't let it spread. 

Exactly. I'm planning to work from home starting from next week too. With the incredibly advances in technology we should be opting for this option whenever possible. 


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Hurricane Long 5

FH: Hurricane 3 Provincial Blue Sponge
BH: Dignics 09c


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 6:48am
   Tournament at Texas Wesleyan on 3/28 has been cancelled due to virus

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Lee


Posted By: kuifje
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 8:39am
In the UK, for now TT events are going ahead, and schools/universities stay open. I do think however they are not doing enough here and that it is not taken seriously enough. Funny though that some people are explaining to me that it's nothing more than a flu, and I then wonder what they know that I don't (I do teach virology at a university). 


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 8:55am
Exactly!  "Nothing more than the flu" except that at a minimum the case fatality rates are 6-10 fold higher than H1N1, none of us have acquired immunity to it, and something like 10-15% of cases result in pneumonia requiring hospitalization.  And we dont have any clinical trials as yet to know for sure that we have any antiviral drugs that work (but we will know something about that soon).


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 9:08am
Hi,

Starting March 16th, Maryland Table Tennis Center (MDTTC) in Maryland, USA, is closing for an indefinite period of time.

MDTTC is a business.

Thanks.


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"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: SignatureDish81
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 9:19am
If clubs are operating out of community centers, in a community where no cases have been reported in the county or neighboring counties, should they close down their clubs if local school systems/universities are closing?


Posted By: kuifje
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 9:47am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Exactly!  "Nothing more than the flu" except that at a minimum the case fatality rates are 6-10 fold higher than H1N1, none of us have acquired immunity to it, and something like 10-15% of cases result in pneumonia requiring hospitalization.  And we dont have any clinical trials as yet to know for sure that we have any antiviral drugs that work (but we will know something about that soon).

Well, the first and most famous pandemic of H1N1 was the Spanish Flu, at the end of WWI, which probably infected about 1/4 of the world population, and caused ~50 million deaths (although estimates range from 17-100 million; =1-6% of the world population). It was quite different from the normal seasonal flue, so similar to the coronavirus, there was a lack of herd immunity.


Posted By: sunny
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 9:56am
Originally posted by kuifje kuifje wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Exactly!  "Nothing more than the flu" except that at a minimum the case fatality rates are 6-10 fold higher than H1N1, none of us have acquired immunity to it, and something like 10-15% of cases result in pneumonia requiring hospitalization.  And we dont have any clinical trials as yet to know for sure that we have any antiviral drugs that work (but we will know something about that soon).

Well, the first and most famous pandemic of H1N1 was the Spanish Flu, at the end of WWI, which probably infected about 1/4 of the world population, and caused ~50 million deaths (although estimates range from 17-100 million; =1-6% of the world population). It was quite different from the normal seasonal flue, so similar to the coronavirus, there was a lack of herd immunity.

We can agree on facts we know till now that is low fatality to healthy and younger generation, risky to very risky to seniors over 50 with health issues. Lot of table tennis players in the clubs can fall in over 50 range. 

What is important is not the fatality in the club but if you catch it you can spread to 5-10 persons and some of those would be in your family and others outside who will spread to others, that is the nature of pandemic virus. In turn, the number of population getting affected will quickly increase and all vulnerable with health issues are at risk. 

What some of the countries are doing with lockdown is let it run through, that is if lockdown is for 2 weeks or 4 weeks, persons having symptons would be contained and they will not spread, further like flue if it is mild they will recover. If enough time is given to moderate cases (majority of them), they will plateau, remaining more serious cases need help especially with pneumonia. 

What clubs have to do is their part and disinfect to the extent possible, door handles, toilets, table partition tops etc. The fact being they don't and players see the risk and stop playing in the clubs. 


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 10:02am
Originally posted by SignatureDish81 SignatureDish81 wrote:

If clubs are operating out of community centers, in a community where no cases have been reported in the county or neighboring counties, should they close down their clubs if local school systems/universities are closing?

I would assume that there are cases around you even if not reported.  In the US there is almost no testing, but this thing clearly spreads VERY rapidly.  I would do what schools and universities are doing.


Posted By: sunny
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 10:08am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Originally posted by SignatureDish81 SignatureDish81 wrote:

If clubs are operating out of community centers, in a community where no cases have been reported in the county or neighboring counties, should they close down their clubs if local school systems/universities are closing?

I would assume that there are cases around you even if not reported.  In the US there is almost no testing, but this thing clearly spreads VERY rapidly.  I would do what schools and universities are doing.

That is the safest course, while travelling outside we are able to control not touching our face or clean our hands with sanitizer or washing frequently. While playing that is impossible, sweat, towelling, picking up stuff, touching here and there, ball picking. 

Sometimes being safe is better than being sorry. I would choose safe for now. WHO does not lightly declare viruses as pandemic, this one is pandemic so how quickly it can reach your country or community and spread will be known after it impacts. 

Not playing for couple of weeks and closing down may contain it


Posted By: SignatureDish81
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 10:11am
Good advice Baal and Sunny, thanks.


Posted By: sunny
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 10:20am
I already see changed world for now, international matches they are not shaking hands with opponents, umpires or with coaches.


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 11:03am
HI,

What will be interesting to observe is all the table tennis businesses that close due to this.

Thanks.


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"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: Charlie Brown
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 1:34pm
I'm 100% sure there is enough toilet paper and bottled water at the local club here in Markham *cough CCTTA* LOL

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*sigh*


Posted By: kevo
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 1:36pm
We shut our club down indefinitely, as of yesterday. The whole of Ireland, in fact, is on 'lockdown'--not as ominous as it sounds as shops etc. are still open, free movement, most public transport still running. Concerts and many weddings, funerals etc. postponed. Pubs still full of liberated college students but hey, who wasn't a student once?

All sporting organisations have issued cease and desist orders to clubs etc., including Table Tennis Ireland. All schools, universities, libraries, museums etc. closed. Much panic buying in supermarkets yesterday just after the announcement was made, but calm today. Very quiet in fact; hardly any kids out playing, as I'd expected. People generally very much in favour of trying to 'get ahead' of things with this virus as a country. Word is, we are 2 weeks behind Italy in the viral progress and our health care system is struggling to cope with things as it is. Table tennis seems, all of a sudden, rather trivial. Be safe and healthy everyone! 


Posted By: heavyspin
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 3:01pm
If USATT leagues cancel, what would this do to the revenue stream of non members paying the $25 rating access fee?
 
On a curious and more serious note, most countries seem to have a mortality rate 3-4% on a site I'm checking out. However, I noticed Germany's mortality rate, more like 0.23%, is less than one tenth of the norm. Could it be inaccurate numbers or is something different there?




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Physicists never throw away old sheets of Butterfly rubber because Tenergy must be conserved.


Posted By: KiwiPong
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 4:21pm
Paddle Palace Club in Oregon is closed for two weeks starting today! 


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 4:25pm
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Starting March 16th, Maryland Table Tennis Center (MDTTC) in Maryland, USA, is closing for an indefinite period of time.

MDTTC is a business.

Thanks.

Major amendment: 
1)  The closure is effective Friday afternoon, March 13th
2)  Private lessons are available 

Thanks


-------------
"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 4:48pm
Colorado Springs – USA Table Tennis has announced the suspension of all USATT events including activities and camps for 30 days effective immediately. This is as a result of the recent outbreak of COVID-19 virus throughout the world. This includes this weekend’s 2020 USATT Hopes Program / Road to L.A. March 13th-15th in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The USATT will continue to monitor the environment and will make necessary changes to keep us all safe and healthy

Out of an abundance of caution, and in an effort to limit any potential exposure to the coronavirus (COVID-19), the USA Table Tennis Association will be postponing all events to be protective of our athletes, officials, staff and the public,” said Chad Knasinski, Director of Marketing and Communications for USATT. “Please visit  http://www.usatt.org/" rel="nofollow - www.USATT.org  for updates on upcoming events.” 

All USATT sanctioned tournaments that are canceled due to the Coronavirus, USATT will credit the tournament sanction fee to their next event.

For more information, please contact Sean O'Neill, USATT High-Performance Director at  mailto:sean.o[email protected]" rel="nofollow - [email protected] .  For tournament information, please contact Tina Ren at  mailto:[email protected]" rel="nofollow - [email protected]



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Lee


Posted By: skip3119
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 5:05pm
Just by glancing over the court, our club's attendance rate appears to be normal.

Does your club experience a significant drop in attendance rate (due to this covid-19)?


Posted By: BRS
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 5:25pm
One data point, last night was less than half normal turnout.  I'm traveling next week so I won't be back at the club until the week after, if it is still open.


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 5:35pm
We had a very light turnout for league night on Wednesday. 

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Lee


Posted By: skip3119
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 5:58pm
So far, one club's attendance rate appears to be normal (no visible drop in attendance rate.) That's our club.

Two clubs (reported by other posters) have experienced visible drop in attendance rate.


Posted By: jfolsen
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 7:05pm
I was at the club on Thursday. About 50% of normal attendance.


Posted By: benfb
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 7:44pm
Our club had mostly normal turnout last night, but I know of three of our most "regular" players who are staying home out of fear of the virus.

A bigger issue for us is that we just cancelled our Stellan Bengtsson training camp, which was schedule for two weeks from now.  Very sad.Cry


Posted By: Snakefish
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 9:47pm
Anyone mention the habit of many players wiping their sweaty hands on the table ? especially 
near the net.  Even though some may think, what are the chances ?  - luck of the draw!!
I'm just putting it out there as this is the same as a door knob or door handle even when dry. 


One of my habits I should stop doing is blowing on the ball before serving in a game.



  


-------------
Butterfly TB ALC fl
FH: Tenergy 05Hard 2.1
BH: Tenergy 80 2.1

Andro Treiber Z - fl
FH: Tibhar MX-P Hard 2.1
BH: Tibhar Aurus 2.1


Posted By: obesechopper
Date Posted: 03/13/2020 at 11:05pm
The club has been shutdown! ...indefinitely 


Posted By: Lightspin
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 3:52am
Three local clubs went from "open only for lessons and private practice between coaches" to completely closed to everyone including coaches with no exceptions.  This is tough because the coaches aren't going to be able to make any money at all while this virus is going around.  Also a few of the coaches are professional players visiting from China and won't be able to practice at all.   Stay safe everyone!


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 5:35am
Hi,

This is from the New York Times advice section today on the Corona:

How can I prepare for a possible outbreak?
https://www.nytimes.com/article/prepare-for-coronavirus.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus&variant=show&region=BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_guide" rel="nofollow - Keep a 30-day supply of essential medicines.  Get a flu shot. Have essential household items on hand. Have a support system in place for elderly family members.

Get your flu shots.

Thanks.


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"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: heavyspin
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 6:40am
I heard an interesting suggestion to relieve concerns of the ball being "unclean" in a match. Each player brings his own ball to a match. The server always uses his ball. When the ball is on the receiver's end after a point, he can brush it with his racket or kick it back to the server if it's on the floor.

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Physicists never throw away old sheets of Butterfly rubber because Tenergy must be conserved.


Posted By: heavyspin
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 6:43am
If anyone is concerned that the ball can become contaminated, I heard an interesting suggestion to play a match. Each player brings his ball and the server always uses his ball. When the ball winds up in the receiver's end after a point, he can brush it back on the table to the net or kick it back on the floor.

-------------
Physicists never throw away old sheets of Butterfly rubber because Tenergy must be conserved.


Posted By: GaryBuck
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 12:07pm
Currently, the only way we can fight the spread of the virus is by social distancing: i.e. everyone staying at home and not mixing with others. Everyone should do this—now. This is not panic, but prevention: a lesson learned from the other places in the world that have faced the virus already. The earlier people isolate from each other, and the more effectively they do it, the more lives are saved. That means no social contact at all, not for any reason at all—the only contact between people should be that which is necessary to maintain life and health, and that kept to an absolute  minimum.

This will help save the lives of the doctors, nurses, police, firefighters, EMTs, and other public servants on the front line, who must face the virus as they fight the epidemic, and who are already dying in large numbers world wide. We owe them our support. By distancing ourselves from others, we not only protect our own lives, but we protect the lives others, and give the medical services the maximum chance of success.

My grandmother used to say: an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. But in this case, we currently have no cure, we only have prevention.


Posted By: BRS
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 12:54pm
I am traveling three weeks out of next four, family obligations, not work, so not canceling.  Every club I was planning to play in has closed.

North AL TT Huntsville closed
WDC TT closed
Nova TTC closed
Gunston (Arlington Va) closed

There is no TT anywhere for a few months probably.  I have a table in my garage.  Unfortunately it won't fit in my Camry but I can practice when I get home.  And by the time this is over my serves will be a hell.of a lot better, assuming I survive, and there is a surviving club to use them at.


Posted By: igorponger
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 4:55pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_latency" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_latency

WHY INFLUENZA RECURRING OFTENTIMES.
Quote However, the viral genome is not fully eradicated. The result of this is that the virus can reactivate and begin producing large amounts of viral progeny (the lytic part of the viral life cycle) without the host becoming reinfected by new outside virus, and stays within the host indefinitely.[2]




AS A MATTER OF FACT, CORONA IS UNCURABLE MUCH LIKE THE GHON'S TUBERCULESIS COMPLEX.


Posted By: MrLee4ATTC
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 8:35pm

Attention Austin Table Tennis Members:

The safety and well being of our members is of the highest concern, therefore we have decided, out of caution and the with the possible spread of Corona virus in Austin, to close the club until April 6th, 2020. At that time we will re-evaluate and decide if further closure will be necessary. All coaching and events will be rescheduled at a later date to be determined. During this time we wish you and your loved ones a safe time away from the club.



-------------
Lee


Posted By: benfb
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 9:09pm
Our club was open this afternoon and we had a medium turn out.  What was interesting was the conversation.  I had previously talked with a number of our most regular players who said they would be staying away for at least a few weeks and thought it was crazy to go to club.  The people at the club today thought it crazy over-reacting to stay away from our club and have no intention of stopping.  Of course, this included me.

I should add our club is a large space and is never crowded, and we all know each other.


Posted By: DonnOlsen
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 9:25pm
Hi,

AS A MATTER OF FACT, CORONA IS UNCURABLE MUCH LIKE THE GHON'S TUBERCULESIS COMPLEX.

More precisely, there is not a standard medical system treatment cure for this disease, like many diseases for which there is not a cure.

A person's immunological and disease-fighting mechanisms can and almost always do cure the inflected person, at a reported success rate of 97%.

Thanks. 


-------------
"Speed kills but technical speed absolutely annihilates defenders." Mia Hamm


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 9:46pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Our club was open this afternoon and we had a medium turn out.  What was interesting was the conversation.  I had previously talked with a number of our most regular players who said they would be staying away for at least a few weeks and thought it was crazy to go to club.  The people at the club today thought it crazy over-reacting to stay away from our club and have no intention of stopping.  Of course, this included me.

I should add our club is a large space and is never crowded, and we all know each other.

Crazy overreaction?  Given what we have seen already, there is no reason to think what is going on in Italy won't happen here in just couple more weeks.  You can easily Google the situation there.  Most typically viruses fo spread between people who know each other, don't let that make you feel safe.


Posted By: FS1
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 10:02pm
Better safe than sorry. I can't imagine any table tennis club staying open during this time. 

Imagine a sick person sneezing on their left hand, they grab the ball to serve and then the opponent (not sick) then grabs the same ball seconds after to pick up and hit/serve etc. I imagine Table Tennis balls would have to be disinfected every single point. 

We can't play our sport like that. We need to be responsible and not spread the more than it already is. Any club that is still open at this point is reckless and irresponsible. 

Pong is going to always be here, let's do the right thing and continue with the TT blackout for a couple of weeks so we can play the rest of the year in peace. 


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 10:06pm
Asymptomatic people can spread the disease.


Posted By: Egghead
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by FS1 FS1 wrote:

Better safe than sorry. I can't imagine any table tennis club staying open during this time. 

Imagine a sick person sneezing on their left hand, they grab the ball to serve and then the opponent (not sick) then grabs the same ball seconds after to pick up and hit/serve etc. I imagine Table Tennis balls would have to be disinfected every single point. 

We can't play our sport like that. We need to be responsible and not spread the more than it already is. Any club that is still open at this point is reckless and irresponsible. 

Pong is going to always be here, let's do the right thing and continue with the TT blackout for a couple of weeks so we can play the rest of the year in peace. 
I understand what you are coming from. However, a lot of clubs will be out of busa if they close for couple weeks Dead


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Aurora ST: Rhyzm / Talent OX


Posted By: benfb
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 10:37pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Crazy overreaction?  Given what we have seen already, there is no reason to think what is going on in Italy won't happen here in just couple more weeks.  You can easily Google the situation there.  Most typically viruses fo spread between people who know each other, don't let that make you feel safe.
As I said, it's interesting to compare different perspectives.  It's also reasonable to assume that the people most likely to post in this thread are precisely those who would worry most.

One of my no-play clubmates (someone I respect a lot) also drew comparisons to Italy, but I really think that reasoning is misguided.  The demographics of Italy -- the distribution of the population, the extent to which people interact, the state of their environment, is very different from most of America.  We may end up just as bad as Italy, but it won't be by following the same path.  In point of fact, none of the most severely infected countries are very comparable to USA.


Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 10:41pm
Pistons player just tested positive.  They played the Jazz the other night.

I get the impression from your comment, Ben, that you are saying that older posters express more concern because of greater risk for severe symptoms.  Also that since younger people are less likely to have severe symptoms it is overblown and that younger people have no social responsibility to take steps to prevent the spread of this thing, to reduce Ro.

That is what I infer from your comment.  Hopefully I infer wrong.

In my view everybody has a role to play to prevent the spread of this virus, even if it means some period of inconvenience.

Italy is more compact.  Tables in restaurants are closer together.  But our cities have high populations of people who interact and people travel a lot. I am not optimistic.  


Posted By: benfb
Date Posted: 03/14/2020 at 11:25pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Pistons player just tested positive.  They played the Jazz the other night.

I get the impression from your comment, Ben, that you are saying that older posters express more concern because of greater risk for severe symptoms.  Also that since younger people are less likely to have severe symptoms it is overblown and that younger people have no social responsibility to take steps to prevent the spread of this thing, to reduce Ro.

That is what I infer from your comment.  Hopefully I infer wrong.

In my view everybody has a role to play to prevent the spread of this virus, even if it means some period of inconvenience.

Italy is more compact.  Tables in restaurants are closer together.  But our cities have high populations of people who interact and people travel a lot. I am not optimistic.  
Actually, I wasn't referring to age at all.  The group we had at our club today ranged from 20 to 70, and they were all of the opinion that we should go ahead and play.  It just seems that people have strongly different attitudes and have trouble recognizing that there is actually a diversity of views on the matter.

Also... while we have a few dense places in this country, most obviously NYC, we are mostly a country of the suburbs, which are far less dense.  And most of the country neither travels Internationally much, nor do they see that many international visitors.  


Posted By: stiltt
Date Posted: 03/15/2020 at 12:07am
Those who can afford it must stay at home or even isolate themselves in a remote area so they achieve 2 things: 1) they stay healthy and 2) they take themselves off the pool of potential vectors.
Being brave is suicidal at the moment, playing lottery with our lives based on an understanding of statistics is self abuse through cherry picked science and eventually criminal if it favors more people infected. Why taking the risk? Common sense means survival here. The more people isolate themselves, the less contamination, that’s where common sense embraces true science. 
What’s wrong with a 6 months spiritual retreat in the mountains for those who can afford it? If you can, do it! The opportunity might never come again. Scary times!



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forum_posts.asp?TID=87220" rel="nofollow - sales - forum_posts.asp?TID=19315" rel="nofollow - feedback


Posted By: benfb
Date Posted: 03/15/2020 at 1:05am
Originally posted by stiltt stiltt wrote:

Those who can afford it must stay at home or even isolate themselves in a remote area so they achieve 2 things: 1) they stay healthy and 2) they take themselves off the pool of potential vectors.
Being brave is suicidal at the moment, playing lottery with our lives based on an understanding of statistics is self abuse through cherry picked science and eventually criminal if it favors more people infected. Why taking the risk? Common sense means survival here. The more people isolate themselves, the less contamination, that’s where common sense embraces true science. 
What’s wrong with a 6 months spiritual retreat in the mountains for those who can afford it? If you can, do it! The opportunity might never come again. Scary times!

And this is a perfect example of the difference of opinions.  The Chicken Littles not only are in a panic, but they are happy to tell everyone else what to do by shame or command.  


Posted By: stiltt
Date Posted: 03/15/2020 at 2:02am
Yes, I am afraid but does it make me a chicken? I am not panicking at all, I just wonder why the bravery of those taking the situation lightly when the right attitude, in my opinion, is better safe than sorry. It's not about our self.

Social Distancing

This is the kind of situation that makes me feel responsible and motivated to do the right thing, a friend posted:

"Please read this, especially if you’re one of those who thinks that covid-19 is no big deal. I’m an immuno-compromised person, and if I get this illness and can’t get medical care I could die. Please please take this seriously. This is a test for all of us."

It was about this other post they shared, it's a nice read:
https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner/posts/10163742243430144" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner/posts/10163742243430144

Here is a copy paste for those who do not like fb:
-------------------------

This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.

For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.

WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:

For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to zero.

I share all this personal information only to help solidify that this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion. Many people do not understand what is happening with the pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to write this and share this on Facebook.

Now that I've gotten the introduction out of the way, here are two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.

ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PANDEMIC:

One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the social pressures of taking action today. It's awkward, and feels like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for retirement or understand compound interest.

To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is doing it so I should do it also.”

SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE - THIS IS WHAT I’VE DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:

I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING. We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get togethers. Normal routine meetings. Everything has been canceled. It's difficult and socially awkward. Some of you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid, but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell my kids they can't attend youth group at church. Both of those were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt Bachelor.

We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids to school even if they were in public or private school. We have eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential items.

THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI FACETED:

1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and 16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us, because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the best medical care available. Our medical system will be overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number of cases from people in their 40s and 50s.

2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place, it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the only way to stop the virus today. As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and other European countries who have been slow to respond.). Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.

If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming from our government, because they are required to stop the spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and China have done.

3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and many will suffer.

4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you love becoming infected and then you infecting others because more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.

5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5 days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”. But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more infections than known infections as reported (citation below). The implication of this is that the virus is already “everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math. It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for known cases as it diverts attention away from more important numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases).

6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus to many people. So everyone else must start today.

The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.

The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming few weeks... the shortage of ventilators.

ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:

Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted. Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80% of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1-2%). All of this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to focus on...

The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed. And the bomb won't really go off for a few more days. Probably by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals.

You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if you have no confirmed cases in your area.

YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):

To further understand exponential growth, take the number of confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again. Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in total.

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).

This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30 days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows. This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from today if a large percentage of the population do not practice social distancing.

2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times, it's the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024 times the number of infected people in your area as there is today if your community does not immediately put social distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.

Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just calculated by the current population of your city and you will be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY who will be infected 30 days from now.

Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that final 30 day number of total infected people. This will provide an estimate of the serious cases which will require acute medical care, and compare it to the number of beds and ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the "number of beds" and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2 seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or fewer ventilators.

These numbers you just calculated are the problem: Too many patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators (the biggest problem) if we don't immediately begint social distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.

COUNTRIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY CARE FOR THE SICK.

And by sick I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or daughter will be operated on by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next month may not receive ANY care because the doctors are consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage handbooks filled with success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there will be none available because all of them will be in use by critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working, because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due to the chemotherapy and they couldn't receive the customized, acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must start today.

The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20), ( see  https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldometers.info%2Fcoronavirus%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR2Wq3a1UOwAnXAhs1eyGXqw0rnT9b4uIgdkg6So1cab1DoOjTyNXdXQMuc&h=AT1d46jD0MAyokXN4BCwvFXdYX-US_D5S3s6cNkpcTzPdLYI_ft-mzgTwjdKoCsGhlm7tPUqS0OpPzy-Xsk4iH8901qjjMg_fO54oPPl8ZFUSt2G7f48Cq6NooM9dBI3jS5IMXQMRnpnUuzKFUHZd-Wctp1W3sKI" rel="nofollow - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ) and it doesn't seem like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an "order of magnitude" means ten times difference, or put another way, a factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it's an order of magnitude greater.

Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just released their estimate (recording is here:  https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fexternalmediasite.partners.org%2FMediasite%2FPlay%2F53a4003de5ab4b4da5902f078744435a1d%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1SbF4gCVlJcvkgPtYDtWehzDTD1iOJUXd3rTu3RjXJEoSfSEowmV8ihhA&h=AT1udK5eV0DhAbsMl5Zi6rUaZqY61FCg_FasB3abOipGHfuKzRznRczPdHNmGVEpFNE2EslWEBJWj7mtgEMQmX3cF1lWh8Fpqiq6TUSIpYci_FJTC0adII66eFYx1hXrpVwqdq-lVPd0TPompPA7xMgl0FGE_CMN" rel="nofollow - https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5… ) that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases. So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The number of reported cases is not that important.

But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000 ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and model out what will happen:

If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).

The math: 2 to the 10th power means 1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated 10 times).

This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x 1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice social distancing.

15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means that 1.5 million people will require significant medical attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million total infections = 1.5 million people requiring hospitalization).

1.5 million hospitalizations is about 50% more than we have beds for at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are already occupied in our hospitals. But patients with the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care. So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.

Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut EVERYTHING down. Extreme social distancing is the only response available to stop the virus today. The United States is not responding well nor are other countries like France or the UK. Countries that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic price.

But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000 units. See  https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov%2Fpubmed%2F21149215%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1spQ_x_SyA3P91f1nnH4yHRScixJW5VuhvAV2TPGl3w1Sp3wLiksgq8W8&h=AT36mQ-Virm9peIB0BGmE6gyEs3Acu4aGiKZwe6xUruebDbb02mdH7CRP-jT7pIzJox4ZGXVzPtfYanElana5E2Ms8R-y3vIE8Nj-P7cdTjrJ9gkuY0qI-CKF2peAmaY-Bd-_izv3cq9AjFPh8J6uhpssszMgadR" rel="nofollow - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215  (admittedly dated) and  https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftheweek.com%2Fspeedreads%2F900850%2Fdoesnt-have-enough-icu-beds-ventilators-deal-even-moderate-coronavirus-outbreak%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3-g8zxfzj0oPhJOthsMmtQHlrE4V4mehXBfZsbIHFXh4NB7uNQT2lQ51w&h=AT1-VqG6wdjF4CjFl4kSLhxs_3cs_hJhd4kAldNzkPPRXWmBTbg188LsZcMuCGOB53C1JjUyf01PZAAHyaZWMpM6Z7gjM05PRDinoFsJy9c9zDb5SIaORuMir_3hyoliWpLUT3wroxqi0aQUPd4bUM96kiU8nIUc" rel="nofollow - https://theweek.com/…/doesnt-have-enough-icu-beds-ventilato…

The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical term that means co-existing or happening at the same time) condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10 million infected 30 days from now require acute care (15% of the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators in the United States. And remember, this is only if ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30 days from today).

BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days from this writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:

If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12 days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16

So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait 30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000 cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today), of which 15% are likely to require critical care. This is 24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5 million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due to how exponents work in math.

THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS: If the vast majority of the population self isolates and implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3 days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2). In math this is "two squared".

2 x 2 = 4

Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today (3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15% of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.

This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the impact on all of us. It's why they say a "post goes viral".

SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY:

Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses. Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social distancing today.

Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy if we begin to practice social distancing now.

This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.

The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing. This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has only one confirmed death as of this writing.

START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.

Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas Pueyo has been read 7M times in the last 24 hours and has been updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.

Here’s that link.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedium.com%2F%40tomaspueyo%2Fcoronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR3Mi2MFcyfp470O2gMYFT2-Rver3YASu1uiFWyyD7KULl3K7YnwW0W9nRM&h=AT2mYecdFNUGOO1S3gNMKR5L7xZWXX7FaFXu1KgHlxiA5owjOWaFdMvWhHnw95oQ1cibULQMMqxaW5Ae_KUJeDPMAPubhKvmfwDbSVGnoBbCPWkM22-pvM7euG9HK7XyggQtRznrR7YPiravbkvWQdg0HD9U-QoH" rel="nofollow - https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…

Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the pandemic is here:

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.worldometers.info%2Fcoronavirus%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR01VpUKkEKL20o19yRBcBEN4FxLDPOOvmv9ZX2j9dZ7QO6ANeaNn1_getw&h=AT1LlXaiGsHAtQpnYJ8PPd-W1431W4NWDfwRbY4AZpmzlf3Bzd7spDctCbV4ysxqYbeTDmDqcnpsUdtJJhgnHyOPJdHOsmtlCe0oPjbGbUftgWNDzAKORJnwPOlNKXYKOUM9wSTAi48BvfXH8_K7ZwvNLyZkGoUJ" rel="nofollow - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of how I should respond.

THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS BELOW WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THIS POST, AND THE COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW POSTS).

MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your friends share this post and so on, we use the power of exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.

HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify this post by sharing it.

For people not on Facebook you can email or text the link. If you know people in government this fact-based post may help inform them to make the best decisions.

It's time for us humans to go on the offensive against the virus. We must fight back.

There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.

Do it today.

NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.



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Posted By: Baal
Date Posted: 03/15/2020 at 9:15am
Chicken littles?  This is math and biology.  

Benfb is normally a pretty sensible commenter here but understand that this epidemic will spread in the US, it is almost certain that there are already thousands of people in the US who have this virus and are spreading it.  There are probably that many in the Seattle area alone by this point.  Why?  Math and biology.  It's  not politics or religion.  It's genomic sequencing, clinical experience in other countries, and the fact that deaths have already occurred here.  There are implications from that last fact alone.

Yes, everyone has their perspective. Mine comes from this: I am a biomedical life scientist.  I teach at a medical school.  I have talked to people who are public health experts, and I can tell you that this is going to be a whole lot worse here than benfb thinks.  I personally think it is irresponsible to not practice social distancing now.  ESPECIALLY if you live on the  west coast, but really in any city now. 

Consider this:  if 1% of Americans are infected in a single wave of this virus, and 1% of those require an ICU, you have just consumed about 36,000 ICU units. There are 94,000 ICU beds in the US currently. And of course the existing ICUs are used for patients with other issues, and you have to account for infections of healthcare personnel.  Those ICUs are not evenly distributed either.

Stiltt posted a great link to the epidemiology explained very clearly.  Please read it if you think my "perspective" is irrational.  




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