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Lily and the 2020 Olympics

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    Posted: 09/15/2019 at 12:51pm
Originally posted by mentortt mentortt wrote:

Lily has great chance to be selected. I think Amy Wang has little chance to be selected. Basically only 3 out of 4 potential candidates (Juan, Lily, Jeniffer and Amy) can be selected. Hope selection will be open and fair and only best players go to olympics.
If Wu Yue wins the world ranking race, then yes, Amy has little chance.  If Lily wins the ranking race, then Amy has a decent case for being selected.  She did better than Wu Yue at the Adult ranking tournament (one of the discretionary selection criteria) ... 4-2 vs. 3-3 respectively.  Looking at Wu Yue's 2019 results, I don't see anything impressive other than her win vs. Bruna Takahashi at the Pan Am Cup.  Amy has a win over future Chinese star Kuai Man and had FTW on the ropes at the WTTC.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/15/2019 at 10:37am
Lily has great chance to be selected. I think Amy Wang has little chance to be selected. Basically only 3 out of 4 potential candidates (Juan, Lily, Jeniffer and Amy) can be selected. Hope selection will be open and fair and only best players go to olympics.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/14/2019 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by Lightspin Lightspin wrote:

I think everything depends on the selection criteria they use.  If they go with the current method of highest international rating, win the trials and coaches pick then it might be tough.  Wu Yue will have the highest international rating.  Li Juan, baring some miracle, should win the trials unless some dark horse comes out of the woodwork which probably won't happen.  Then there is the coach's pick.  I think Amy beat Lily they last time they played and Amy is younger so maybe they go with Amy. 

If they changes the selection and the top 3 in the trials go to the Olympics, I think he chances for making the team are better.  Li Juan will probably win the first spot on day one.  Lily would have really good odds on winning day two or day three.  It is hard to envision a scenario where she has two off days and doesn't win on one of those days.  
Lily is within 25 points of Jennifer if you look at only 2019.  Remember that the 2018 points will have expired by the time they make the selection. So if Lily makes a good push to the finish line, she definitely can win the world ranking race. Discretionary selection is not just one head to head match. International results matter(Lily has the advantage here over everyone)  and the trials results do as well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lightspin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/14/2019 at 3:04pm
I think everything depends on the selection criteria they use.  If they go with the current method of highest international rating, win the trials and coaches pick then it might be tough.  Wu Yue will have the highest international rating.  Li Juan, baring some miracle, should win the trials unless some dark horse comes out of the woodwork which probably won't happen.  Then there is the coach's pick.  I think Amy beat Lily they last time they played and Amy is younger so maybe they go with Amy. 

If they changes the selection and the top 3 in the trials go to the Olympics, I think he chances for making the team are better.  Li Juan will probably win the first spot on day one.  Lily would have really good odds on winning day two or day three.  It is hard to envision a scenario where she has two off days and doesn't win on one of those days.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/14/2019 at 12:16am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

I am neither for or against any player, just like some of you trying to make sense of the selection process but apparently some of you have something to gain by getting angry at me for favouring/not favouring a player. This thread is about Lily or did i read the headings wrong?

This is all i have to say ...this thread is just polluted with people with personal feelings to certain players and clearly do not want to discuss Lily's route to the Olympics...you know you can start your own thread.
I'd say Lily's chances are quite good.  She's the 2nd highest USATT rated female player in the USA.  I've already detailed her race with Wu Yue for highest world ranking in this thread.  And if it comes down to discretionary selection, she's the winner of the Pan Am Championships, was a quarter finalist at the Slovenia Open and did better than Wu Yue at the Adult Ranking tournament.  So I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing Lily in Tokyo.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 4:14pm
I am neither for or against any player, just like some of you trying to make sense of the selection process but apparently some of you have something to gain by getting angry at me for favouring/not favouring a player. This thread is about Lily or did i read the headings wrong?

This is all i have to say ...this thread is just polluted with people with personal feelings to certain players and clearly do not want to discuss Lily's route to the Olympics...you know you can start your own thread.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 3:56pm
Originally posted by mentortt mentortt wrote:

Here it comes again. First he claims he has no meaning behind his sentence. Then he self-corrects his inside meaning. He now says Juan is good player, but not a qualified player. Do you know why she didn't play this year's National? She thought she was unqualified so no interest to join games. Last year, she said clearly that she wants to join olympics when she won both US national and US open.Then ITTF rules changed her qualification. Then she starts to play. There is a whole article about that. 

By USATT rating, she is highest women player in US, only below two national male players.Why not? Olympics is not selecting person who spent most money. The best player in the country should go. 

ITTF ranking is a joke. Basically if you have money, joined so many ITTF events. You can reach top 100 eventually. But a lot of regular person don't have money. Even they are good, but they don't have any ITTF ranking.


Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:


Juan Liu, it was unfair/callous of me to name her to "The Team" earlier because she is fairly new to the USATT rankings not based on her abilities but "timing of reintroduction of her competing again"...just selecting by the USATT ranking list she should not be on any team unless by a committee (made up of whomever is deemed knowledable) selection or by a team trial event(s).

I say that because there are others who have worked extremely hard and their parents have put in LOADS of money to get them there, so regardless of abilities and if solely based on rankings...she should not be an "automatic pick" and go thru a trial event(s) to be selected.

i was referring the my post at 10:10am but i urge you to re-read what i posted (in here again) before getting mad at me for...??? I have not changed my mind on anything except for mentioning her "as part of the team to be at Teams  Also the rankings i am referring to are the USATT's Confused

I also did not say she should not be part of the TeamClap

this is the current TTTeam USA female National group, Juan Li is not in there


Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/13/2019 at 4:17pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 3:47pm
Here it comes again. First he claims he has no meaning behind his sentence. Then he self-corrects his inside meaning. He now says Juan is good player, but not a qualified player. Do you know why she didn't play this year's National? She thought she was unqualified so no interest to join games. Last year, she said clearly that she wants to join olympics when she won both US national and US open.Then ITTF rules changed her qualification. Then she starts to play. There is a whole article about that. 

By USATT rating, she is highest women player in US, only below two national male players.Why not? Olympics is not selecting person who spent most money. The best player in the country should go. 

ITTF ranking is a joke. Basically if you have money, joined so many ITTF events. You can reach top 100 eventually. But a lot of regular person don't have money. Even they are good, but they don't have any ITTF ranking.


Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:


Juan Liu, it was unfair/callous of me to name her to "The Team" earlier because she is fairly new to the USATT rankings not based on her abilities but "timing of reintroduction of her competing again"...just selecting by the USATT ranking list she should not be on any team unless by a committee (made up of whomever is deemed knowledable) selection or by a team trial event(s).

I say that because there are others who have worked extremely hard and their parents have put in LOADS of money to get them there, so regardless of abilities and if solely based on rankings...she should not be an "automatic pick" and go thru a trial event(s) to be selected.


Edited by mentortt - 09/13/2019 at 3:54pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 3:31pm
I agreed Nextlevel, we (Canada) don't even stand a chance at mix doubles teams. As much as i support my Canadians, the REALITY is we cannot compete against the Americans ...the "politics" here is even worse than the USA's and we're not even choosing from a talent pool as vast as America's.


that said, i will still support and cheer on my fellow Canadians.

One thing i want to add and it's going to most likely start again... Wink

Juan Liu, it was unfair/callous of me to name her to "The Team" earlier because she is fairly new to the USATT rankings not based on her abilities but "timing of reintroduction of her competing again"...just selecting by the USATT ranking list she should not be on any team unless by a committee (made up of whomever is deemed knowledable) selection or by a team trial event(s).

I say that because there are others who have worked extremely hard and their parents have put in LOADS of money to get them there, so regardless of abilities and if solely based on rankings...she should not be an "automatic pick" and go thru a trial event(s) to be selected.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NextLevel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 11:38am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by ttforlife ttforlife wrote:

How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?
Don't know, but I think for the women, any combination of Juan Liu, Lily Zhang, Amy Wang, Wu Yue, and Crystal Wang would win over Canada.  The men will be a tougher to decide... obviously Kanak will be there.  Kai and Nikhil should be there.  But I want to reiterate that playing at the Team Trials in October does not guarantee a place on the team.  If we keep the current selection procedure, it's: highest world ranking, winner of the Singles Trial on Feb 28 2020, and discretionary selection.

USA's women team will win over the Canadians, Canadian men's team have Eugene but i think Kai this time around has a good shot at him, Jeremy is somewhat of an unknown right now **i'd say 50/50, Marko has not proven himself in competition against the USA recently.

i would think USATT would send for the women's team Lily, Wu and Juan at TEAMS...then there will be openings for Crystal, Amy and the other Amy at "Singles Qualification" and "Mixed Dbls"...you can also add Rachel Sung into the mix.

Since teams is a best of 5, Canada needs three matches.  Even if Eugene wins 2, Canada will still struggle to get another 1 as Hazin is not beating Kanak or Nikhil.  And the US is getting reinforcements too, as Xin Zhou and Jishan Liang will be in the mix given that this is an Olympics cycle.  I just don't see what Canada really has an option here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 10:13am
...sorry i posted my opinions too slow it's above your post


**your current HPD Sean could also change up the process so, there's that too to be confused about.


Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/13/2019 at 10:20am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ttforlife Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 10:11am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by ttforlife ttforlife wrote:

How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?

  • North American Team Qualification, Rockford, Illinois (USA): 5 Oct

Is this not the event of USA vs Canada? I'm curious how the USA team is decided that will be able to play in this event.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 10:10am
Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by ttforlife ttforlife wrote:

How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?
Don't know, but I think for the women, any combination of Juan Liu, Lily Zhang, Amy Wang, Wu Yue, and Crystal Wang would win over Canada.  The men will be a tougher to decide... obviously Kanak will be there.  Kai and Nikhil should be there.  But I want to reiterate that playing at the Team Trials in October does not guarantee a place on the team.  If we keep the current selection procedure, it's: highest world ranking, winner of the Singles Trial on Feb 28 2020, and discretionary selection.

USA's women team will win over the Canadians, Canadian men's team have Eugene but i think Kai this time around has a good shot at him, Jeremy is somewhat of an unknown right now **i'd say 50/50, Marko has not proven himself in competition against the USA recently.

i would think USATT would send for the women's team Lily, Wu and Juan at TEAMS...then there will be openings for Crystal, Amy and the other Amy at "Singles Qualification" and "Mixed Dbls"...you can also add Rachel Sung into the mix.


Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/13/2019 at 10:12am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 10:02am
Originally posted by ttforlife ttforlife wrote:

How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?

  • North American Team Qualification, Rockford, Illinois (USA): 5 Oct
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 10:01am
Originally posted by ttforlife ttforlife wrote:

How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?
Don't know, but I think for the women, any combination of Juan Liu, Lily Zhang, Amy Wang, Wu Yue, and Crystal Wang would win over Canada.  The men will be a tougher to decide... obviously Kanak will be there.  Kai and Nikhil should be there.  But I want to reiterate that playing at the Team Trials in October does not guarantee a place on the team.  If we keep the current selection procedure, it's: highest world ranking, winner of the Singles Trial on Feb 28 2020, and discretionary selection.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ttforlife Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:45am
How is the team that will play against Canada decided? Has it been decided already?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:36am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 


i am going by this...



"We can send a full team of three athletes, either men or women or both, by winning the 2019
ITTF North American Olympic Team Qualification (October 5, 2019) or through the 2020 ITTF
World Team Qualification (January 21-26, 2020). The first is likely easier, because all we have
to do is beat Canada in a team match. That’s not to dismiss Canada, only to say that the second
qualification event will include every other country in the world that doesn’t have a full team
yet. So we could do this either way, beating Canada or taking on a bunch of other countries for
a limited number of extra team positions the ITTF will offer."


Right, that emphasizes what I mentioned above.  If we beat Canada, we get to send a full team of three to the Olympics, but it does not guarantee Lily(Edit: or anyone else for that matter) a spot on the team which is what is in question.


Edited by pongfugrasshopper - 09/13/2019 at 9:46am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/13/2019 at 9:00am
Originally posted by pongfugrasshopper pongfugrasshopper wrote:

Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 


i am going by this...



"We can send a full team of three athletes, either men or women or both, by winning the 2019
ITTF North American Olympic Team Qualification (October 5, 2019) or through the 2020 ITTF
World Team Qualification (January 21-26, 2020). The first is likely easier, because all we have
to do is beat Canada in a team match. That’s not to dismiss Canada, only to say that the second
qualification event will include every other country in the world that doesn’t have a full team
yet. So we could do this either way, beating Canada or taking on a bunch of other countries for
a limited number of extra team positions the ITTF will offer."


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:21am
Originally posted by Charlie Brown Charlie Brown wrote:

Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
Are you referring to the North American Team Trial to be held on October 5?  That's a USA vs. Canada who gets to qualify a team trial (... no individual player gets a spot on an Olympic team for USA).  That's a few weeks away.  The USA Olympic Trial (which is what it is called if USA wins the teams) will be on Feb 28, 2020 (more than a few weeks away).
 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:08am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

Now that we have Lily winning the Pan Am Games Women's Singles title (as well as the three other golds), in addition to being the U.S. Champion, does this alter the perspective on the qualification prospects for the next Olympics?

Thanks,

Before the OP's thread got jacked as usual 🥴

Lily is consistently in the top 3 in USA and top 5 in NA, she will/should make the team unless she gets "upset" by the likes of an Amy or Crystal but your question will be answered in a few weeks from now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mentortt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 11:07am
Agree. I hope Juan Liu can play Kanak or Nikil to see if she is 2700 level or not.
USATT rating is much more accurate than ITTF ranking. 

Originally posted by kindof99 kindof99 wrote:

To be honest, I don't see much chance for Juan Liu either. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kindof99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 10:53am
To be honest, I don't see much chance for Juan Liu either. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pongfugrasshopper Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/12/2019 at 10:19am
Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.
Just to clarify, I'm saying there's the possibility of going one step further than what USA's Wang Chen did in 2008 (QF). If fortunate enough not to meet China early and a good draw, she would have to beat someone like Miu Hirano or Kasumi to get to a semifinal ensuring at least a shot at bronze. And let's not forget that Juan Liu is a very experienced ex-CNT player. No one heard of Kim Hyang Mi before she won a silver medal in singles at the 2004 Athens Olympics. Even though the probability is low, surprises do happen.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 3:08pm
Not sure why you feel so victimized - if you really weren’t trying to imply anything else in your initial post then I think we can agree it was a pretty pointless contribution to the discussion - clearly stating the obvious. If there was something else you were trying to say with the post, then feel free to elaborate. 

If English is your first language and you can’t see why your post was interpreted by several people to mean you doubt Liu Juan’s chances of international success, then...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 2:28pm
ending a "discussion with an insult" is very "big of you" shows maturity in your character...yes i do agreed Ma Long is a very good Chinese TT player.

Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/11/2019 at 2:29pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:35pm
Alright, since you aren’t trying to imply anything else, thank you for your valuable contribution to the conversation. 

Ma Long is a very good Chinese player. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:27pm
Originally posted by bard romance bard romance wrote:

It’s not people reading into it too much, perhaps your lack of writing skills - your post clearly insinuates that, for reasons unstated, Liu Juan would not be successful against international competition. 

would you like to quote that "insinuation" then read it a few times before getting too defensive of a "simple statement"

you know when you "attack" someone based on misreading a "simple statement" is  a sign of ...maybe you'd like to finish that statement too? since you seem to have a better grasp of my first language?


Edited by Charlie Brown - 09/11/2019 at 1:28pm
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bard romance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bard romance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 1:00pm
It’s not people reading into it too much, perhaps your lack of writing skills - your post clearly insinuates that, for reasons unstated, Liu Juan would not be successful against international competition. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Charlie Brown Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 12:55pm
some people have a difficult time NOT reading too much into a simple statement and then choose to add their own opinions into that simple statement


yes i do support only Canada players...like Dan Seemiller but wait did he change citizenship?

Juan Liu is a "GOOD AMERICAN FEMALE TT Player" let's see how you read into that again? Disapprove
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jackwong23 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09/11/2019 at 12:18pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

Bronze? R16? Making the main draw is already an achievement.

Getting past Hong Kong, South Korea, and/or North Korea is out of the question. Not even Romania and Germany.

As weak as the field is right now, you still need tons of luck with the draw and lots of upsets.

I understand where you are coming from but Juan Liu is strong enough to get two matches vs most of those teams.  It all depends on whether Lily or Jennifer or Amy can get one.

I think team USA can beat any team out there 
except China, Japan and  South Korea. 
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