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Direct Link To This Post Topic: When will we play Table Tennis again?
    Posted: 07/30/2020 at 1:45pm
It is time to lock this thread. 

Each of us will play table tennis again when we choose to assuming you find a place to play.  You can all make your own choices.  Herman Cain made his.  At this point I think the main points are sufficiently widely disseminated that people have access to the information they need -- and of course the misinformation they choose to trust, quite a lot of which manages to find its way onto these threads.

There will be no future threads on Covid-19.  If someone wants to start a thread about masks they have found that are useful for playing sports, that is ok.  I will carefully moderate it.  The rule will be that postings will be limited to the usefulness of the mask for playing TT.  People who don't believe that masks can protect you should stay away from any such thread that might appear in the future.  I'm not going to start one.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 1:36pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

This is a really great article on masks and aerosols. 


What is the best study/trial advocating mask use that you can find?  Why would the Dutch government do this if it was a closed case?




Read the NYT article.  There are plenty of citations.  I'm through with you. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 12:16pm
Originally posted by ejprinz ejprinz wrote:

I think at this point it is irresponsible to not recommend mask use unless the number of Covid-19 cases is very low (around 200/day in the Netherlands). Germany mandated mask use and social distancing and it worked. Based on expert opinions (e.g. the Korean and German medical experts) masks help.
If I had some comorbidities and lived in the Netherlands, I would walk around in a gas mask just to make a point.

I get that.  What is the best scientific study you have supporting your position?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 12:13pm
I think at this point it is irresponsible to not recommend mask use unless the number of Covid-19 cases is very low (around 200/day in the Netherlands). Germany mandated mask use and social distancing and it worked. Based on expert opinions (e.g. the Korean and German medical experts) masks help.
If I had some comorbidities and lived in the Netherlands, I would walk around in a gas mask just to make a point.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 10:38am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

This is a really great article on masks and aerosols. 


What is the best study/trial advocating mask use that you can find?  Why would the Dutch government do this if it was a closed case?

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 10:37am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

This is a really great article on masks and aerosols. 


My favorite part of the article was when they discuss what size of droplet is considered aerosolized and the fact that there is no real cut off point.

Wow, Herman Cain jist passed from corona


Edited by cole_ely - 07/30/2020 at 10:45am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 10:27am
Hi,

Epidemiologists goal is to stop the spread, and they're not really concerned about the effects. 

The above statement is very true among the most visible U.S. epidemiologists trotted out on major media outlets.  The above statement is very much not true among many of the leading epidemiologist around the world.  Their position is far, far more holistic, expressing deep concern for both economic and social elements of enormous importance.

This is very evident in the different approaches being used in different countries.  They, too, are being guided by science, except it is a science of much greater sophistication than the crudeness within the U.S.  The callousness of the Fauci attitude, brushing off as not germane to his responsibility and participation, is a cruelty of monumental proportions.  I do not exaggerate.

Among the NIH, Fauci, the FDA, and the CDC, we are being extremely poorly served and advised.  Couple that with the actions of the U.S. Congress and you have existing and future suffering and death, in the totality of this experience, that holds in rivalry with other historic tragedies.

Thanks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 10:22am
This is a really great article on masks and aerosols. 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 9:54am
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/almost-30-million-in-us-didn-e2-80-99t-have-enough-to-eat-last-week/ar-BB17ldBN

This is an article from Bloomberg saying that the shutdown has increased hunger. I've read an article that I suppose I could go back and look for that summarized the effect of the shutdowns. They looked at a lot of factors including a huge drop in charitable giving. They estimated amongst all the factors that for every life lost by the virus we have lost 29 lives because of shutting down. I seriously doubt that's accurate, but there's a lot to consider.

If you're a hammer you see every problem as a nail. Epidemiologists goal is to stop the spread, and they're not really concerned about the effects. That's for somebody else to consider. Dr. Fauci has said as much many times. Steve mnuchin's job is to worry about the economy. Somebody has to balance the two.

The short-term solution seems to be printing money. That's all fine and good to a certain point, but once people don't trust the dollar or America's bonds anymore they'll expect a higher return and then we're in really big trouble. If we issue bonds somebody will have to pay them back probably our kids eventually. If we just print money then inflation is about to eat our lunch when the economy does get going again.

That's the real world. 

Your link didn't work.



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 9:43am
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/markets/almost-30-million-in-us-didn-e2-80-99t-have-enough-to-eat-last-week/ar-BB17ldBN

This is an article from Bloomberg saying that the shutdown has increased hunger. I've read an article that I suppose I could go back and look for that summarized the effect of the shutdowns. They looked at a lot of factors including a huge drop in charitable giving. They estimated amongst all the factors that for every life lost by the virus we have lost 29 lives because of shutting down. I seriously doubt that's accurate, but there's a lot to consider.

If you're a hammer you see every problem as a nail. Epidemiologists goal is to stop the spread, and they're not really concerned about the effects. That's for somebody else to consider. Dr. Fauci has said as much many times. Steve mnuchin's job is to worry about the economy. Somebody has to balance the two.

The short-term solution seems to be printing money. That's all fine and good to a certain point, but once people don't trust the dollar or America's bonds anymore they'll expect a higher return and then we're in really big trouble. If we issue bonds somebody will have to pay them back probably our kids eventually. If we just print money then inflation is about to eat our lunch when the economy does get going again.

That's the real world. 


Edited by cole_ely - 07/30/2020 at 9:43am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/30/2020 at 8:13am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

My colleagues say things have been on a razor edge but trending slightly better, depending on what you look at.  The key is to look at multiple metrics.  New Covid-19 hospitalizations has steadily trended down this week.  Depends a little on which hospital you look at and it is requiring a lot of coordinating to send patients from hospital A to hospital B.  BUT, I have to point out that Houston is incredibly dense hospital infrastructure per capita.  There are also refrigerator trucks at several places to store bodies.

A big issue has been testing and getting results back quickly.  Hospital systems have their own testing capabilities for patients who are present at the hospitals. Getting reagents makes my friend who runs the clinical lab at one of the hospitals really nervous.  But at other testing centers, getting results back takes so long it is pretty much useless for contact tracing. 

The situation is much worse some other parts of Texas.  In the Rio Grande Valley it seems that the situation is basically like New York.  The hospital infrastructure there is not like here.

Clearly I don't think it is possible to make any conclusion by comparing total number of cases in July in Texas compared to March in NYC based on tests.   HOWEVER there are many other types of data that do portray the situation more realistically.  This week the number of tests that have been coming out POSITIVE here is above 19%, and much higher for some subsets of the population (for example Hispanic people, where it approaches 40%).  Fortunately this this is down from 26% earlier this month.  Even the governor wants to see it below 10% (most infectious disease specialists would say lower than that).  The virus is still racing through the city, but maybe is slowing a little.  There is also the fact the percentage of ICU units in Houston and Texas in general currently occupied by Covid-19 patients is still very high, but for now, not exceeding capacity.  Regarding new hospitalizations at Texas Medical Center hospitals, yesterday 198 people were admitted with Covid-19, down from an average of 250 or so around July 4.  That is a genuine trend.  The number of Covid-19 patients in ICUs in at the Texas Medical Center is at an all-time peak.  That is a lagging indicator, as are deaths.  Some people stay critically ill for a long time before getting better or dying.  But note that this is one of the key statistics for measuring how Covid-19 affects a hospital system.  Covid-19 is right now using 6-times as many total hospital resources as it did in the last week of May.  Another point is that elective surgeries are not allowed here, which is a huge financial problem for hospitals.  Finally, Texas is fairly steady at ~170 deaths/day.

So there is kind of a summary.  Anyone who is suggesting or hinting that we ought not to be taking this seriously is an idiot.

Maybe taking it seriously can only be done by frightening people into submission.

We will see whether Texas and other hot states materially affect this trend.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2020 at 8:55pm
My colleagues say things have been on a razor edge but trending slightly better, depending on what you look at.  The key is to look at multiple metrics.  New Covid-19 hospitalizations has steadily trended down this week.  Depends a little on which hospital you look at and it is requiring a lot of coordinating to send patients from hospital A to hospital B.  BUT, I have to point out that Houston is incredibly dense hospital infrastructure per capita.  There are also refrigerator trucks at several places to store bodies.

A big issue has been testing and getting results back quickly.  Hospital systems have their own testing capabilities for patients who are present at the hospitals. Getting reagents makes my friend who runs the clinical lab at one of the hospitals really nervous.  But at other testing centers, getting results back takes so long it is pretty much useless for contact tracing. 

The situation is much worse some other parts of Texas.  In the Rio Grande Valley it seems that the situation is basically like New York.  The hospital infrastructure there is not like here.

Clearly I don't think it is possible to make any conclusion by comparing total number of cases in July in Texas compared to March in NYC based on tests.   HOWEVER there are many other types of data that do portray the situation more realistically.  This week the number of tests that have been coming out POSITIVE here is above 19%, and much higher for some subsets of the population (for example Hispanic people, where it approaches 40%).  Fortunately this this is down from 26% earlier this month.  Even the governor wants to see it below 10% (most infectious disease specialists would say lower than that).  The virus is still racing through the city, but maybe is slowing a little.  There is also the fact the percentage of ICU units in Houston and Texas in general currently occupied by Covid-19 patients is still very high, but for now, not exceeding capacity.  Regarding new hospitalizations at Texas Medical Center hospitals, yesterday 198 people were admitted with Covid-19, down from an average of 250 or so around July 4.  That is a genuine trend.  The number of Covid-19 patients in ICUs in at the Texas Medical Center is at an all-time peak.  That is a lagging indicator, as are deaths.  Some people stay critically ill for a long time before getting better or dying.  But note that this is one of the key statistics for measuring how Covid-19 affects a hospital system.  Covid-19 is right now using 6-times as many total hospital resources as it did in the last week of May.  Another point is that elective surgeries are not allowed here, which is a huge financial problem for hospitals.  Finally, Texas is fairly steady at ~170 deaths/day.

So there is kind of a summary.  Anyone who is suggesting or hinting that we ought not to be taking this seriously is an idiot.


Edited by Baal - 07/29/2020 at 9:17pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2020 at 11:52am
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

So Baal,  has Houston turned out as badly as you expected, or are you still waiting for it to turn into NY?

It's hard to read the Houston data because all of Texas shows this huge Spike in one day of like six hundred and some. Apparently they changed  the method of data collection to using death certificates  and entered a bunch at once?

Yes, they sometimes report deaths from the past and reclassify them or say they were missing and they are now data.  The media unfortunately doesn't highlight this since they are either ignorant or not interested in showing a true trend.  I leave you to decide which.

A couple of engineers and analysts I follow on Twitter/Youtube analyze the data and they argue that if we we were testing in NY the same way they were testing in TX and FL, the case count have been much higher than anything we are seeing in TX and FL.  This is why I think it is worth waiting a few years to look back on some of this - right now, any skepticism about how the virus is being portrayed is associated with support for Trump.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2020 at 11:24am
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

So Baal,  has Houston turned out as badly as you expected, or are you still waiting for it to turn into NY?

It's hard to read the Houston data because all of Texas shows this huge Spike in one day of like six hundred and some. Apparently they changed  the method of data collection to using death certificates  and entered a bunch at once?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/29/2020 at 11:14am
So Baal,  has Houston turned out as badly as you expected, or are you still waiting for it to turn into NY?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 9:17pm
I uploaded a video on how to play table tennis in a safe(r) way compared to not wearing a face mask. I've been playing since June 1st, 2020, 2-3x/week, 3 hours at a time, ~70% intensity with the face mask. I loose about 6lbs in 3 hours (mostly water of course).
Given that many people wear rather flimsy masks or no masks I think there is a need to protect myself in addition to others. See:  https://youtu.be/K1mQJZhI108

I use the same mask when I go grocery shopping or go anywhere else.


Edited by ejprinz - 07/28/2020 at 9:19pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 7:46pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I think the NBA model is the  best but I  still predict at some point the bubble will be penetrated.  I hope I'm wrong.  

As for MLB, I also doubt the virus spreads on the  field.   But teams share locker rooms,  have meetings together, etc.  plus they are traveling.  

College football teams are seeing lots of positive tests.  Kids being kids.
First of all , there was no doubt that one of teammembers caught the virus outside of the team building. The problem is that MLB has a stringent guidelines for the clubhouse, such as wearing masks, maintaining social distance. spacing out equipment in the workout room, restricting how many players can work out at the same time, and making sure each player has his own equipments. Then, they still have an outbreak. 

The funny thing is that MLB knows they will have issues. Teams have 60-players pool now, but the teams don't want to play againt teams with outbreak nowLOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 7:33pm
Originally posted by heavyspin heavyspin wrote:

I heard a baseball analyst suggest that they should rethink whether players should be allowed to fist bump and such. I can't say how these players got infected, but I'd bet it was due to something off the field rather than on the field.

haha, unlike MLS, NHL and NBA, MLB and NFL are playing seasonal games. At first, MLB wants to do the hub format, but the MLBPA says no. In fact, if bubble works for seasonal games, NFL will be the first onr to jump in. Now, every eye will watch how NFL unfold their season.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 6:44pm
I think the NBA model is the  best but I  still predict at some point the bubble will be penetrated.  I hope I'm wrong.  

As for MLB, I also doubt the virus spreads on the  field.   But teams share locker rooms,  have meetings together, etc.  plus they are traveling.  

College football teams are seeing lots of positive tests.  Kids being kids.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 2:15pm
Originally posted by qpskfec qpskfec wrote:

When NBA players first entered the bubble, they had to stay in their rooms for a few days and had food delivered, only a few complained.

After testing negative every day for several days, they are allowed to use the resort facilities, including high end places to eat. Entire luxury hotels are running at very low occupancy with no non NBA guests. They are eating just fine.
cool, I though they would only have airline econ class' food when they were not at team activities Embarrassed
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 2:01pm
When NBA players first entered the bubble, they had to stay in their rooms for a few days and had food delivered, only a few complained.

After testing negative every day for several days, they are allowed to use the resort facilities, including high end places to eat. Entire luxury hotels are running at very low occupancy with no non NBA guests. They are eating just fine.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 12:31pm
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

Originally posted by qpskfec qpskfec wrote:

NBA, MLS, and WNBA are all playing in their own bubbles in Florida.

Before play resumed, 2 MLS teams dropped out due to covid. Since then, MLS has been playing for about a month now without incident. They are in the playoffs now, so as losing teams exit the bubble, the number of people left goes down. They look likely to complete their tourney in 2 weeks.

If MLS can get to the end, it will be a positive sign for the NBA. The NBA is essentially doing the same thing as MLS, but doing it at a higher level, as the NBA is spending $150 million on their bubble.

And they still complain about the food 
150M did not "go a long way" now. Both MLS and NBA players' meals are airline econ class' food quality, and WNBA players' meals are soup Kutchen food quality. So, it is understandable that NBA players complain about the food LOLLOLLOL. Let wait for the NHL; of course, given both bubbles are in Canada, may be it will be different :')
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 8:09am
I heard a baseball analyst suggest that they should rethink whether players should be allowed to fist bump and such. I can't say how these players got infected, but I'd bet it was due to something off the field rather than on the field.

A masseuse practicing social distancing rubs me the wrong way.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 7:59am
And so far the bubble seems to be working since nobody has tested positive since July 13.

So far.

For our sport just keep in mind that you don't know if your club mates are effectively living in a bubble but if you see someone at a club playing without one you'd best assume they are not particularly cautious about how they approach living in a pandemic. 


Edited by Baal - 07/28/2020 at 8:03am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 12:57am
Originally posted by qpskfec qpskfec wrote:

NBA, MLS, and WNBA are all playing in their own bubbles in Florida.

Before play resumed, 2 MLS teams dropped out due to covid. Since then, MLS has been playing for about a month now without incident. They are in the playoffs now, so as losing teams exit the bubble, the number of people left goes down. They look likely to complete their tourney in 2 weeks.

If MLS can get to the end, it will be a positive sign for the NBA. The NBA is essentially doing the same thing as MLS, but doing it at a higher level, as the NBA is spending $150 million on their bubble.

And they still complain about the food 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 12:56am
NBA, MLS, and WNBA are all playing in their own bubbles in Florida.

Before play resumed, 2 MLS teams dropped out due to covid. Since then, MLS has been playing for about a month now without incident. They are in the playoffs now, so as losing teams exit the bubble, the number of people left goes down. They look likely to complete their tourney in 2 weeks.

If MLS can get to the end, it will be a positive sign for the NBA. The NBA is essentially doing the same thing as MLS, but doing it at a higher level, as the NBA is spending $150 million on their bubble. There has been no outbreak in the NBA bubble so far.

Edited by qpskfec - 07/28/2020 at 12:59am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 12:42am
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I stand by my NBA prediction.

Supposedly Lou Williams left the bubble for an excused reason, but was seen at a strip club. And he's one of the older players. Most of the NBA players or a lot of them are barely 20, and we know that age group isn't the best for distancing and such. So I wouldn't be surprised if you're right although I hope that you're not.
ya, that is exactly what I mean. He needs to serve 10-day quarantine and be retested before joining the team. With this level of caution measurement, we still have an outbreak. What should regular folks do?


Edited by Egghead - 07/29/2020 at 1:30pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/28/2020 at 12:19am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I stand by my NBA prediction.

Supposedly Lou Williams left the bubble for an excused reason, but was seen at a strip club. And he's one of the older players. Most of the NBA players or a lot of them are barely 20, and we know that age group isn't the best for distancing and such. So I wouldn't be surprised if you're right although I hope that you're not.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/27/2020 at 11:02pm
I stand by my NBA prediction.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07/27/2020 at 10:30pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

NL, the implication is that this thing can spread fast among people who congregate together and MLB players are tested regularly, every few days.  I dont think pointing this out is remotely sensationalistic*.  All you need is one "super spreader" to cause  real havoc, and we now see more than a third of a single team's active roster testing positive. It is something to consider for TT players in the US, some of whom, based on what has been reported in this thread don't take precautions. 

As for NBA I predict that at least one team will have a significant outbreak affecting multiple players simultaneously in spite of their precautions. 
.....

I highly doubt that NBA will have a signifcant outbreak. Last time I checked; NBA would play in a bubble environment. So, if one team gets it, all team will likely to get it too. And, it means there will be a big problem. How can a person inside a "coronvirus-free" zone with all check points get infected Dead


Edited by Egghead - 07/27/2020 at 10:33pm
Aurora ST: Rhyzm / Talent OX
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