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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/24/2020 at 6:36pm
Baal, I bet that if you go to H-Mart (A huge Korean supermarket chain) that you would have much more produce availability... and the meat may be genuine too. They get in bulk (lots of it) and do it there, not so much pre-package stuff.

There are Koreans in Houston (at least there were lots of them when I lived in TX in the 90s), so there should be some giant Korean supermarkets that would please you.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/24/2020 at 7:33pm
Originally posted by BH-Man BH-Man wrote:

Baal, I bet that if you go to H-Mart (A huge Korean supermarket chain) that you would have much more produce availability... and the meat may be genuine too. They get in bulk (lots of it) and do it there, not so much pre-package stuff.

There are Koreans in Houston (at least there were lots of them when I lived in TX in the 90s), so there should be some giant Korean supermarkets that would please you.

I am a big H-Mart person living in Maryland.  Your assessment is very correct.

Thanks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/24/2020 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by BH-Man BH-Man wrote:

Baal, I bet that if you go to H-Mart (A huge Korean supermarket chain) that you would have much more produce availability... and the meat may be genuine too. They get in bulk (lots of it) and do it there, not so much pre-package stuff.

There are Koreans in Houston (at least there were lots of them when I lived in TX in the 90s), so there should be some giant Korean supermarkets that would please you.

I love H Mart.  Don't think they are offering pickup service.  I'm not going to enter retail businesses for awhile unless forced too.


Edited by Baal - 03/24/2020 at 8:11pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/24/2020 at 10:24pm
March 1 75
3/4 147
3/7 418
3/10 945
3/13 2,240
3/16 4,580
3/18 8,678
3/21 i was busy
3/24 54,812

Whoops, virus was busy.  should only be 32,000 by today.  guess we will get to 200,000 by 3/30.  Then the numbers will really start to get large. 

Oh, and my local club finally closed. The mall it is in shut down which forced it to go too.  Was the last club open in FL.  Now it's every man with a table for himself.  We will have really awesome serves when this is over. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 1:10am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I think those criteria have been relaxed in Houston area now because most of the spread is now community.  The problem is there simply aren't test kits available.

This is utterly insane. 

Our nation had a bunch of weeks to get ready for this and clearly did nothing. 

Starting midnight tonight there is a stay-at-home order in Houston and surrounding area.  Also in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.  It's not like Italy where the cops will arrest you if they see you -- not yet.

3 weeks before the shxt storm hit N.A., and the test kit was in shortage supply already because some of the medical ingredients from germany almost ran out. 

Anyway, do we know US using the 15 mins new kits now or the 4 hours test kits at the drive thru?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 1:14am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Originally posted by BH-Man BH-Man wrote:

Baal, I bet that if you go to H-Mart (A huge Korean supermarket chain) that you would have much more produce availability... and the meat may be genuine too. They get in bulk (lots of it) and do it there, not so much pre-package stuff.

There are Koreans in Houston (at least there were lots of them when I lived in TX in the 90s), so there should be some giant Korean supermarkets that would please you.

I love H Mart.  Don't think they are offering pickup service.  I'm not going to enter retail businesses for awhile unless forced too.
If you are senior, you shall shop at the store now. 

Anyway. how can you guys want the grocery delivering to you?Confused
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 6:15am
Hi,

The USATT has launched its PongPositive initiative, prompting an upbeat spirit to confront the current malaise.  Indeed the leadership is correct here.

As a submission to this positive mood, in table tennis America we have been provided the following information of the near future available to us that is bolstering:

1.  Today, the federal stimulus package was just agreed to in the U.S. Senate; this is a huge uplifting step.

2.  We have the scheduled new table tennis equipment release on April 1 of:

Butterfly Dignics 09c
Butterfly Harimoto Interforce Super ZLC
Butterfly R40+ ball

3.  On April 12th (Easter Sunday), we will begin to roll!

Be PongPositive!

Thanks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 10:08am
Originally posted by acpoulos acpoulos wrote:

Sounds good, with 1 yeah but - the Senate Bill has to go back to the House, and you know who's there...

But I'm hopeful she will stand down.
I thought she was your gal Confused

ANyway, we can assure that our south neighbors can play tt in the club no later than easter. The btm line is that are they brave enough to go to the club LOL 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 10:29am
Originally posted by Egghead Egghead wrote:

Originally posted by acpoulos acpoulos wrote:

Sounds good, with 1 yeah but - the Senate Bill has to go back to the House, and you know who's there...

But I'm hopeful she will stand down.
I thought she was your gal Confused

ANyway, we can assure that our south neighbors can play tt in the club no later than easter. The btm line is that are they brave enough to go to the club LOL 

It has been reported that the golf courses in Florida are PACKED with golfers fighting for tee times.  The demand is high.

Thanks
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 11:25am
Originally posted by acpoulos acpoulos wrote:

 
Let me put it this way - if she were on fire, I wouldn't even p*** on her to put it out. BTW, the most important event in Christianity should be capitalized.

Christos Anesti to my Greek brethren!

Ah, such a wonderful christian attitude we have here. You make your system of beliefs really shine! 

P.S. Politics should probably be kept off these topics... Hint, hint. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 12:22pm
Who's getting ready to spend that sweet stimulus money on some new DIGNICS?!?! 

Or maybe a nice robot for the home!?


Edited by obesechopper - 03/25/2020 at 12:23pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 12:28pm
Originally posted by obesechopper obesechopper wrote:

Who's getting ready to spend that sweet stimulus money on some new DIGNICS?!?! 

Or maybe a nice robot for the home!?

Thank you so much for the correctly-directed thinking about the $1,200 coming our U.S. way.

The neatest play I know of is the purchase of three (3) of the new Harimoto blades at $400 each.  It's a wrap.

Thanks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 12:57pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Under the current circumstances, I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of 2020 exceeds 1,000.   

So we will pass 1000 confirmed deaths today or tomorrow.  I'm hearing reports of many unconfirmed deaths due to lack of protective equipment in NYC to properly test people.  Still don't know how anyone could think we would have so few deaths.  

Within a week we will likely exceed your entire 2020 estimate each and every day for weeks or months.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 2:07pm
Originally posted by Egghead Egghead wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I think those criteria have been relaxed in Houston area now because most of the spread is now community.  The problem is there simply aren't test kits available.

This is utterly insane. 

Our nation had a bunch of weeks to get ready for this and clearly did nothing. 

Starting midnight tonight there is a stay-at-home order in Houston and surrounding area.  Also in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.  It's not like Italy where the cops will arrest you if they see you -- not yet.

3 weeks before the shxt storm hit N.A., and the test kit was in shortage supply already because some of the medical ingredients from germany almost ran out. 

Anyway, do we know US using the 15 mins new kits now or the 4 hours test kits at the drive thru?


Whatever local authorities can get
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/25/2020 at 2:46pm
This is where outsourcing to foreign countries will be re-thought in a near future: those producing can sell to whoever they want and as the demand on any product runs that high with lives at stake, money is not necessarily the primary factor and the rich have to wait too.

Edited by stiltt - 03/25/2020 at 2:47pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 12:33pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Originally posted by Egghead Egghead wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I think those criteria have been relaxed in Houston area now because most of the spread is now community.  The problem is there simply aren't test kits available.

This is utterly insane. 

Our nation had a bunch of weeks to get ready for this and clearly did nothing. 

Starting midnight tonight there is a stay-at-home order in Houston and surrounding area.  Also in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio.  It's not like Italy where the cops will arrest you if they see you -- not yet.

3 weeks before the shxt storm hit N.A., and the test kit was in shortage supply already because some of the medical ingredients from germany almost ran out. 

Anyway, do we know US using the 15 mins new kits now or the 4 hours test kits at the drive thru?


Whatever local authorities can get

My doctor said it's taking him... 6 days!! To get the results back.

15 mins and 4 hours!? 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 2:35pm
Originally posted by WeebleWobble WeebleWobble wrote:

Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Under the current circumstances, I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of 2020 exceeds 1,000.   

So we will pass 1000 confirmed deaths today or tomorrow.  I'm hearing reports of many unconfirmed deaths due to lack of protective equipment in NYC to properly test people.  Still don't know how anyone could think we would have so few deaths.  

Within a week we will likely exceed your entire 2020 estimate each and every day for weeks or months.
You are correct, in that USA has already reached 1,000 deaths.  I failed to take into account how slow NYC would be to react to the virus and how bad it would get there.  They represent about half of the contaminated patients in the USA.  Exclude them from the numbers and the rest of the country doesn't look so bad.  One of the problems with statistics is that outliers can always skew the predictions.

Washington state is another anomaly, where the death rate in King County is out of proportion to their population.  The question is whether those numbers are mostly due to early infection (before people realized we had a problem), or whether it continues to be a problem now.  I can't find a source by day-by-day numbers for them.

How much the death rate climbs from here is mostly a question of how well protected are the highly vulnerable people, specifically 70+ age with health issues.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 3:16pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Originally posted by WeebleWobble WeebleWobble wrote:

Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Under the current circumstances, I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of 2020 exceeds 1,000.   

So we will pass 1000 confirmed deaths today or tomorrow.  I'm hearing reports of many unconfirmed deaths due to lack of protective equipment in NYC to properly test people.  Still don't know how anyone could think we would have so few deaths.  

Within a week we will likely exceed your entire 2020 estimate each and every day for weeks or months.
You are correct, in that USA has already reached 1,000 deaths.  I failed to take into account how slow NYC would be to react to the virus and how bad it would get there.  They represent about half of the contaminated patients in the USA.  Exclude them from the numbers and the rest of the country doesn't look so bad.  One of the problems with statistics is that outliers can always skew the predictions.

Washington state is another anomaly, where the death rate in King County is out of proportion to their population.  The question is whether those numbers are mostly due to early infection (before people realized we had a problem), or whether it continues to be a problem now.  I can't find a source by day-by-day numbers for them.

How much the death rate climbs from here is mostly a question of how well protected are the highly vulnerable people, specifically 70+ age with health issues.

Even if NYC had responded faster, your comments sound like those of someone who has never been there.   NYC is in trouble no matter how fast they respond - given the flow of travel and immigrants in NYC, I wouldn't be surprised if the virus was already there in January but no one acted as such.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 3:36pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

Even if NYC had responded faster, your comments sound like those of someone who has never been there.   NYC is in trouble no matter how fast they respond - given the flow of travel and immigrants in NYC, I wouldn't be surprised if the virus was already there in January but no one acted as such.
Once upon a time, I lived in NJ and my sister was a long time resident of NYC, so I'm reasonably familiar with it.Smile

NYC should have had very aggressive action very early on.  This is the one place I would have supported a shut down and shelter in place law very early, just based on the obvious risk.  They needed to be ahead of the rest of the country on this, and instead they were behind the curve.  I wondered about this back in January.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 3:51pm
Ah yes, the stages of denial and obfuscation.

1.  It's a Chinese thing.  They're dirty, it won't come here.
2.  It's here, but it won't be anything bad. Stop overreacting.
3. It's bad, but only in New York.  Nothing major will happen in all-American Red states.

I look forward to hearing stages 4, 5, and 6 as Fox & Friends dreams them up.




Edited by BRS - 03/26/2020 at 3:53pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:02pm
Originally posted by BRS BRS wrote:

Ah yes, the stages of denial and obfuscation.

1.  It's a Chinese thing.  They're dirty, it won't come here.
2.  It's here, but it won't be anything bad. Stop overreacting.
3. It's bad, but only in New York.  Nothing major will happen in all-American Red states.

I look forward to hearing stages 4, 5, and 6 as Fox & Friends dreams them up.


I take exception with your implication that this is a blue/red debate (except point #1).  I think it's pretty clear that I'm a virus skeptic, but I can't stand Fox and didn't vote (and don't support) Trump.

It's a difference of opinion, but that doesn't make it politics.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:03pm
Strange, i was about to post a reply to Baal on the Why should all clubs close thread and then the whole thread suddenly disappear.  Any idea why?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:06pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Originally posted by WeebleWobble WeebleWobble wrote:

Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Under the current circumstances, I would be surprised if the death toll by the end of 2020 exceeds 1,000.   

So we will pass 1000 confirmed deaths today or tomorrow.  I'm hearing reports of many unconfirmed deaths due to lack of protective equipment in NYC to properly test people.  Still don't know how anyone could think we would have so few deaths.  

Within a week we will likely exceed your entire 2020 estimate each and every day for weeks or months.
You are correct, in that USA has already reached 1,000 deaths.  I failed to take into account how slow NYC would be to react to the virus and how bad it would get there.  They represent about half of the contaminated patients in the USA.  Exclude them from the numbers and the rest of the country doesn't look so bad.  One of the problems with statistics is that outliers can always skew the predictions.

Washington state is another anomaly, where the death rate in King County is out of proportion to their population.  The question is whether those numbers are mostly due to early infection (before people realized we had a problem), or whether it continues to be a problem now.  I can't find a source by day-by-day numbers for them.

How much the death rate climbs from here is mostly a question of how well protected are the highly vulnerable people, specifically 70+ age with health issues.


But the same growth curves we see in NYC and Seattle will follow EVERYWHERE that doesn't take strong steps to keep people from spreading this thing.  Next Level is correct also that this thing was certainly spreading in the US long before people suspected it was here, and parts of east and west coasts were particularly vulnerable because they are travel hubs.  I know that you were arguing that the US is not like Italy because we are more suburban (if I recall correctly) but the thing that was always in my mind was that we don't know when t = 0 in the US, and we don't know how many asymptomatic people brought the virus here, or, frankly how many of them there are walking around now.  People in suburbs go to work, interact with coworkers, eat lunch at the nearby cafe, hang out with their friends, play TT, etc.  SARS-CoV-2 goes wherever the people go

One thing that is pissing me off is news reports like this one from my local paper, about "500 cases of Covid-19 in greater Houston" or whatever the stupid number is that they insist on reporting that is giving people a false sense of security.  Yes, that's the number who have been tested positive.  I'll bet the actual number of people walking around here with this thing is closer to 50,000 than it is to 500.

benfb, you have been a virus skeptic all along, and you have expressed your skepticism politely, but there is not a single qualified public health authority that agrees with your skepticism.  Also, the next places where this is going to explode, exactly like NYC relative to their population, are New Orleans and Atlanta.

Here is a guy we all ought to be listening too. 



Edited by Baal - 03/26/2020 at 4:19pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:11pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Strange, i was about to post a reply to Baal on the Why should all clubs close thread and then the whole thread suddenly disappear.  Any idea why?
  see PM I just sent you.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:17pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

One thing that is pissing me off is news reports like this one from my local paper, about "500 cases of Covid-19 in greater Houston" or whatever the stupid number is.  Yes, that's the number who have been tested positive.  I'll bet the actual number of people walking around here with this thing is closer to 50,000 than it is to 500.  
I've always assume that the number of infections in any given area is about 10x the reported number (not sure I would go so far as 100xWink).  I'm not sure that an accurate number for "infections" is all that important, other than for something scary to put into the news reports.  The main value of the infection number is to give you an idea of how the infection varies by location and time.  

For purposes of the threat posed by the virus, you're better off tracking  the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths and then you need to separate that by demographics (especially age groups).  Someone somewhere is probably doing that analysis, but I can't find it on the web.

And, really, it needs to be done as a time series, so you can measure the actual change over time, and not just look at cumulative numbers or short-term jumps.

Also, unless a report says that "500 cases" are tested positive, they are probably using "presumed" numbers, based on symptoms.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:21pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

One thing that is pissing me off is news reports like this one from my local paper, about "500 cases of Covid-19 in greater Houston" or whatever the stupid number is.  Yes, that's the number who have been tested positive.  I'll bet the actual number of people walking around here with this thing is closer to 50,000 than it is to 500.  
I've always assume that the number of infections in any given area is about 10x the reported number (not sure I would go so far as 100xWink).  I'm not sure that an accurate number for "infections" is all that important, other than for something scary to put into the news reports.  The main value of the infection number is to give you an idea of how the infection varies by location and time.  

For purposes of the threat posed by the virus, you're better off tracking  the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths and then you need to separate that by demographics (especially age groups).  Someone somewhere is probably doing that analysis, but I can't find it on the web.

And, really, it needs to be done as a time series, so you can measure the actual change over time, and not just look at cumulative numbers or short-term jumps.

Also, unless a report says that "500 cases" are tested positive, they are probably using "presumed" numbers, based on symptoms.


I am basing my 100-fold on some of the epidemiological models I have read.  And in the newspaper they are reporting test-confirmed cases.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:30pm
This is really interesting and informative. A company called Kinsa makes digital smart thermometers that report results to a central database. From this they can tell where in the US people are spiking fevers, regardless of the cause. At the moment, though, Covid-19 is partly driving this, at least based on historical comparisons to previous years. Another really interesting thing they find is what happens to the incidence of fevers as soon as cities or counties institute stay-at-home orders. They are also showing graphs that show how quickly things get back to normal. The do state that "Due to widespread social distancing, school closures, stay-at-home orders, etc. feverish illness levels are dropping in many regions. This does not mean that COVID-19 cases are declining. In fact, we expect to see reported cases continue to surge in the near term, but it may indicate these measures are starting to slow the spread. See CDC COVID-19 Cases in U.S. for details."

This is an amazing no tool for disease surveillance.  You can find their maps and other information on the link below.

https://healthweather.us/

Edited by Baal - 03/26/2020 at 4:30pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:42pm
Originally posted by benfb benfb wrote:

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

One thing that is pissing me off is news reports like this one from my local paper, about "500 cases of Covid-19 in greater Houston" or whatever the stupid number is.  Yes, that's the number who have been tested positive.  I'll bet the actual number of people walking around here with this thing is closer to 50,000 than it is to 500.  
I've always assume that the number of infections in any given area is about 10x the reported number (not sure I would go so far as 100xWink).  I'm not sure that an accurate number for "infections" is all that important, other than for something scary to put into the news reports.  The main value of the infection number is to give you an idea of how the infection varies by location and time.  

For purposes of the threat posed by the virus, you're better off tracking  the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths and then you need to separate that by demographics (especially age groups).  Someone somewhere is probably doing that analysis, but I can't find it on the web.

And, really, it needs to be done as a time series, so you can measure the actual change over time, and not just look at cumulative numbers or short-term jumps.

Also, unless a report says that "500 cases" are tested positive, they are probably using "presumed" numbers, based on symptoms.

IF you wouldn't go as far as 100X and you know that 1-5% of people who get the disease get critically ill (which invokes a multiplier of 20x - 100x), where do you get 10x from?  Just curious.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:47pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

[
I am basing my 100-fold on some of the epidemiological models I have read.  And in the newspaper they are reporting test-confirmed cases.
I'm not sure i have that much faith in epidemiological models.  I do know that a few days ago someone published their studies of China, where they concluded the actual number of infections was about 10x the reported numbers.  And I believe the CDC usually talks about 10x, although that could change.

I am surprised that your paper is only reporting tested cases.  In western states, mostly they report combined tested and presumed, and that's also what the CDC uses on their web site.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03/26/2020 at 4:56pm
Even if it is tested and presumed, that is the number of people who have symptoms sufficiently severe that they bothered to tell someone about it, even symptoms at all.  The bigger number I am supposing is the total number of people capable or infecting someone else, and that number is a lot higher.  But if they are prevented from infecting other people, then things will progress more slowly.

In China they definitely did not do a great deal of testing relative to population, for example greater Wuhan has about 20 million people.

Meanwhile, the U.S. at the moment has more active cases of COVID-19 than Italy and China combined.

Things got started a little later here, but this $hi# is about to get even more real.


Edited by Baal - 03/26/2020 at 5:01pm
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