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Topic ClosedWhen will we play Table Tennis again?

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/26/2020 at 6:59pm
Hearing all these stories about scientists defending their abilities to perform analysis and arrive at conclusions is heartwarming - I know you are all experts in your field.

If you have dealt with medical doctors whose approach to your health helped ruin it, you may see the value of not being so accommodating when it comes to getting advice from experts.  And in order to deal with such experts, you have to know how science works, and while the experimental component of science is extremely difficult, if you have the math/philosophy background, the ability to interpret a research conclusion may not be as difficult, especially if you are willing to put in the time.

Then there are fields who label themselves as science - my favorite example is nutrition science, which is hardly a science as currently practiced.  Eggs are good for you... no eggs are bad for you... no red meat is a carcinogen... sugar is a poison... you can't make this stuff up.

Also skepticism to science is not always about science - it is partly about the financial/commercial interests that surround science.  What I came to realize is that when a doctor says "there is no cure for ...", it often really means "there is no drug that cures ..."  So there is no cure for type 2 diabetes, you just need to continue taking insulin for it.  Yes, there are lifestyle changes you can make that stop your type 2 diabetes, but they aren't cures because if you stop doing those things, the disease comes back.  You can't make this stuff up.

There are inefficient processes in medicine as well which if you trust your doctor, you would consider them "science".  I know someone who tested negative for Lyme disease using the ELISA test or Western Blot.  What they didn't tell him was that the most common tests test for only one strain of Lyme disease, when there are over 20 strains.  Took him over a decade and lots of issues before he got a diagnosis and Lyme disease is far harder to treat once it is chronic.

Then there is the issue of scientists disagreeing over what it is appropriate to conclude from the data.   After all, the epidemiologists at Imperial College predicted that 2mm people would die in the US from this disease.   The Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt, who is no epidemiologist but is clearly a scientist (unless you want to disqualify him on grounds that I cannot make out), had calculated that the disease would need to kill 200-300K people and burn out (what drove the burnout wasn't entirely clear, but he believed masks might be a part of it).  So which scientist to trust?  Especially when the one that most people are citing in the media was so far off that he motivated a lot of conspiracy theorists?

No, I am not a scientist.  Just a college graduate.   And while I don't think any layman should pretend to be a scientist, scientists should be clear on what they think they do that laymen can't do or why the scientific process is so special that only they can apply it to what they do, but other people in tech disciplines can have no clue how it works.  Researchers deserve the highest respect for their ability to investigate and solve extremely complicated problems.  But they should also be able to understand why so many people are skeptical about what the researchers say and do.



Edited by NextLevel - 06/26/2020 at 10:34pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/26/2020 at 8:04pm
Let me review a few things since this thread could get off track.

1. This is a highly infectious respiratory virus that now appears to be transmitted mainly by aerosols and droplets in the air.  People can spread it without knowing they have it (which is a somewhat unusual feature of this virus, different from influenza, for example).   

2. These things have big implications for table tennis, an indoor sport that requires exertion resulting in forced exhalation and in which you spend a sustained period, often only about nine feet (three meters) from your opponent.  (Don't think a big room will necessarily help you if your opponent is infectious; you use the search terms [random walk diffusion] to see why). 

3. It is clear that there are a variety of co-morbidities that usually lead to worse outcomes (like ending up in an ICU).  Some are fairly obvious like COPD or any sort of autoimmune disease that is being treated, morbid obesity, and diabetes.  This is all over the news, you all know that. 

4. However some of these are co-morbidities that quite a few people don't know they have!!  To give just one example, the thing I work on, chronic kidney disease, which predicts pretty awful outcomes in Covid-19.  A quite substantial proportion of people who learn that their kidneys are messed up are actually at a somewhat advanced state by the time a diagnosis is first made.  A substantial percentage of people who have type 2 diabetes don't know it.  Same with hypertension.  Certain types of arteriosclerosis.  Early stages of pulmonary fibrosis.  Other things too. 

So if you are headed to your newly open club, know that a barrier between your respiratory tract and the outside world is the ONLY thing we know about for sure that can be effective.  (Not 100% but not 0%).  There are maybe some other things that there is a good reason to think MIGHT be helpful, and the one that seems (to me) to be most likely to be true and relatively easy to deal with is that this is probably a bad time to be vitamin D deficient.  If you never get any aerobic exercise, now would be a good time to improve on that.  if you are not liking the way you look, drop a few pounds.  And maybe stay off the really obviously toxic food (anything with high fructose corn syrup for example).  I share NL's disdain for a lot of nutritional "science" but there are some things that seem pretty well established even in that area. 


Edited by Baal - 06/26/2020 at 8:06pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/26/2020 at 8:32pm
Baal, on behalf of all my colleagues who work with COVID-19 patients everyday at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for providing this invaluable guidance to the table tennis community. This is a truly horrendous and unpredictable disease, as many patients of ours have died within a week of admission even with the best treatments. Please continue with your great work!





Edited by roundrobin - 06/26/2020 at 8:46pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/26/2020 at 9:48pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

(Don't think a big room will necessarily help you if your opponent is infectious; you use the search terms [random walk diffusion] to see why).  


Tried looking it up, but couldn't understand it with all the scientific terms. Can you explain it in simpler terms?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 10:03am
If you're playing someone you are most likely staying within 15 ft of them most of the time. Your infectious opponent will be expelling tiny virus droplets within this ~15 ft of you for an extended period of time. Small particles in fluid (this case air) tend to move to distribute themselves more evenly among the available fluid because of their random motion. It's the same principle behind putting one of those air fresheners in the corner of a room and eventually it freshens the whole room. This means that the tiny, light droplets your opponent is expelling are going to eventually spread out through the air as long as they are airborne (which coronavirus can do for some time). 

With you being within 15 ft of the opponent most of the time, it doesn't really help that the room is large. Yes, the virus will try to diffuse through the whole room, but to get to the end of the room it has to pass you first, and you're relatively close. This isn't so problematic for walkers/bikers outside because they don't spend extended periods of time in the same vicinity. You may pass an infected person with 6 ft distance between you, but you only pass them for a few seconds. The diffusion doesn't happen that fast. Playing table tennis with an infected person for an hour or more though is enough time for the virus to move a substantial distance, plus the infected person is continuously putting out droplets.

You and your opponent moving around also contribute to helping the virus diffuse faster by moving air around, plus the motion of the ball going back and forth could have a small impact. And if you switch sides every game and your opponent is infected, it's already game over. You have most likely already been exposed to the droplets. This doesn't necessarily mean infection, but is obviously a bad thing.

*EDIT* Basically your opponent is a Febreze freshener filled with coronavirus droplets. And eventually the Febreze smell + coronavirus droplets will reach you if you're in the same room for a long time. Especially if you're within a relatively short distance and moving around.


Edited by Chairman Meow - 06/27/2020 at 10:28am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 11:17am
Sure. Chairman Meow has a good example.   In a bit more detail it works like this:  

Diffusion is simply simultaneous Brownian motion of gazillions of particles at once.  A fundamental feature of Brownian motion is that the particle tends to move within small area most of the time and once in awhile moves quickly a longer distance and then again "explores" a small area.  It is sometimes called a "drunken walk" or a random walk to help people visualize it.  It is a quite counterintuitive feature of a purely random process; basically small movements are more likely than large ones for a random process.  (This is something we were required to read about in some detail in an incredibly painful biophysics class I took in graduate school).

Because of this, diffusion is very fast over relatively short distances (like between you and your opponent) and  very slow over long distances (from your table to the ceiling at the other side of the room).  

Fortunately the aerosols are not just diffusing, because there is turbulence caused by things moving in the room.  (And breezes outdoors, even more so).  Nevertheless, if your opponent is emitting virus, as Chairman Meow says, you will be in a zone of quitte high concentration.  This is maybe not a crisis if you briefly pass someone in a store aisle (wear a mask there anyway!)  but potentially a big problem if you are 3-5 meters from your opponent for an hour and he is continuously emitting virus. 

In other words, dont be lulled into a false sense of security because the room is big.  It will tend to protect you from a guy four tables away (which is good)  but not from your opponent (if he is unknowingly infectious,  which is bad).



Edited by Baal - 06/27/2020 at 11:29am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 11:53am


Edited by ghostzen - 06/28/2020 at 4:04pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 12:46pm
There is an interesting interview at https://www.hedleyandbennett.com/pages/wakeupandfightmask-faq with a surgeon. I've been using a facemask with 3 layers of philter (2x filtrete + 1 x active coal) for playing table tennis and had the issue that my glasses were fogging up (inhaling is hard, exhaling is easy) so his suggestion was to use medical tape over the nose instead of a metal insert. This actually seems to work.

 I consider my risk sufficiently low given that the TT partners are always the same <10 people, and I use the mask with philter 100% when indoors. I can't play at 100% perphormance obviously, the mask reduces the perphormance due to how much air I can get into the lungs but is OK. I think everyone needs to do his/her own risk assessment but not wearing a mask with a philter seems risky say going shopping because many people are wearing masks which are obviously useless CDC's leadership is questionable, my 86-year old Mom in Germany got much better advice and fabricated a mask herself which is better than 99% of what I am seeing here.

 I look forward to the masks optimized for sports from UnderArmour in August, there is some face mask innovation going on right now. Also there was an interesting paper mentioned at:
which may become an option for restaurants or even for playing table tennis.

The big problem in Texas right now is how to corrall the new outbreak (as Gov. Abbot stated), we'll see how this goes...

(Note that the blogging software filters out "philter and "phorm" so I had to replace the f with a ph - Is this PHP???)


Edited by ejprinz - 06/27/2020 at 12:53pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 1:51pm
Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

... epidemiologists at Imperial College predicted that 2mm people would die in the US from this disease.   

Did they give a date for the 2MM dead?  When I worked in a stock brokerage in the 90s they taught us to predict a price, or set a date, never both.  In America this is only getting started.  Florida is setting records daily, not in a good way.

Everything you say about US medicine and much research science is true.  And I have been harmed as much by lazy/stupid/uncaring doctors as anybody. They are just ordinary people, some of them are crap. And much US research science is bought and paid for by industry, because Capitalism. 

But to me epidemiology and public health is not really one of those things. It is pretty well understood.  Kind of like statistics, experienced most clearly by Americans when we go to our local casino.  Sometimes we win.  But if we keep going back, eventually we will surely lose.  Covid is just like that.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 3:35pm
I am going to have ability to use club robot on days when club is closed.  Was wondering if next day (say 12 hrs)  there is much chance of remaining aerosol virus if infected person had played?

Also if asked to go in and lock up club after play would waiting an hour after everyone left provide me any safety?

The few articles I found said aerosols stayed airborne about 30 min avg, but could be up to 3hrs?  Not sure if I was even reading the right kind of article.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 5:13pm
Mark, it's nice to hear from you and hope you are doing well.  First thing is that I can't answer your question with certainty. 

My best GUESS would be that virus is likely to be entirely settled on surfaces after 12 hours, and very likely dead at that point.  Use a sanitizer on your hands every so often maybe.  Obviously you will use a net of some sort to pick up balls.

As for waiting an hour after people finish to go lock up, probably that's ok too if you wear a mask, and don't hang out there any longer than you have to. 

Obviously too, depends a bit on where you live.  In places like where I live (Houston), or Miami or Phoenix, etc. you have to be a lot more careful than some other places.  Where you are living now seems to have almost no cases.  So that is also something encouraging for you. 

All in all, what you are thinking about doing sounds to be about as favorable a situation is most of us are likely to find. 

Here, though, a few hours up the road, it is pretty damn bad.  ICU utilization in the Texas Medical Center is now 100% although other rooms can be converted.  Problem here is  that if things get even worse, then we may be seeing mass graves and horrific ER room triage decisions. One thing that makes me ever so slightly less pessimistic is that physicians are getting better at dealing with Covid-19 and a lot of the new infectees are young and won't get as sick, and even the governor of this state is starting to consider that me have screwed up in some of his decisions.  I like my city a lot.  I definitely wish I was somewhere else right now, like the south of France.   


Edited by Baal - 06/27/2020 at 5:25pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 5:22pm
Thnks Baal.  I am going to try to be on the safe side for the next month and will not play when the club is "open play".  But it would be nice to hit some on robot so as to not get too stale.  Will reevaluate my plans in month based on what I see at new location.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 5:25pm
I edited my previous comment a bit after you replied.  Nothing too substantive.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 5:40pm
Originally posted by BRS BRS wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

... epidemiologists at Imperial College predicted that 2mm people would die in the US from this disease.   

Did they give a date for the 2MM dead?  When I worked in a stock brokerage in the 90s they taught us to predict a price, or set a date, never both.  In America this is only getting started.  Florida is setting records daily, not in a good way.

Everything you say about US medicine and much research science is true.  And I have been harmed as much by lazy/stupid/uncaring doctors as anybody. They are just ordinary people, some of them are crap. And much US research science is bought and paid for by industry, because Capitalism. 

But to me epidemiology and public health is not really one of those things. It is pretty well understood.  Kind of like statistics, experienced most clearly by Americans when we go to our local casino.  Sometimes we win.  But if we keep going back, eventually we will surely lose.  Covid is just like that.


The thing about that is that models have to be constantly checked against actual data to see if underlying assumptions make sense.  Very early on the Imperial College model was deviating substantially from what actually happened.  So ok, that model is no good.  Guys like Michael Levitt is doing curve fitting without any underlying biological basis for his fits, and it is not clear that what he is seeing means much.  Scientists are at their best when they are not moving too many leaps away from their primary expertise, and moving from solving protein structures to modeling epidemiology is a giant leap.  Linus Pauling won a Nobel Prize in chemistry, and a lot of the stuff he did pushing vitamin C was simply absurd.

As for who pays for science, actually in the US a great deal of the best of it is paid for by the National Institutes of Health, or the National Science Foundation, and also some private foundations (I am funded by the NIH and have also had grants in the past from the American Diabetes Association, and the Department of Defense, among others). I'm certainly not going to profit from what I discover (probably), but drug companies take an interest and I get called sometimes to consult for them.  A lot of the basic scientists in US universities function pretty much like I do, including people who are a whole let better than I am. (A few occasionally start their own companies, the though of doing that never once appealed to me).

Obviously, a lot of big clinical trials are paid for by drug companies.  So, I have been a bit skeptical of some of the data on remdesivir, for example, as Gilead made a lot of decisions about how they would test it that were criticized heavily by academic people who didn't have any vested interest in the outcome.  In other words, the trial design was weaker than it should have been.  On the other hand some "capitalistic" trials -- the best ones -- are designed in such a way that even if they are paid for by drug companies, the chances that bias influences results are removed by the trial design.  The best clinical trials are like the one in Oxford that is free of commercial interests, and which pointed to dexamethasone as a useful treatment in severely ill Covid-19 patients.  But the trials for new medications of necessity are paid for by big companies. 

As BRS says, some epidemiology is  reasonably straightforward.  The basic principles of infectious diseases are pretty well understood.  And some of the epidemiological models have done a really good job of predicting the course of this thing.  They come in many different types.  Others, not so much.  My colleague Peter Hotez, who I respect GREATLY, often cites models from the University of Pennsylvania.  One of the guys from that group had a nice essay to describe what they are good for and how we should think about them:





Edited by Baal - 06/27/2020 at 5:50pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 6:10pm
As an interesting side note, I was just notified that the first stop on my trip out of Tx, San Angelo State Park, has just been closed because employee tested Covid positive.  Now I have no place to camp on Sun night.

Do not know whether to call it bad luck or good luck.  Bad that I will have to scrounge for a camping spot.   Good that I did not go and get infected or run down on Mon by highway patrol taking me somewhere for 2 week quarantine.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 7:02pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Originally posted by BRS BRS wrote:

Originally posted by NextLevel NextLevel wrote:

... epidemiologists at Imperial College predicted that 2mm people would die in the US from this disease.   

Did they give a date for the 2MM dead?  When I worked in a stock brokerage in the 90s they taught us to predict a price, or set a date, never both.  In America this is only getting started.  Florida is setting records daily, not in a good way.

Everything you say about US medicine and much research science is true.  And I have been harmed as much by lazy/stupid/uncaring doctors as anybody. They are just ordinary people, some of them are crap. And much US research science is bought and paid for by industry, because Capitalism. 

But to me epidemiology and public health is not really one of those things. It is pretty well understood.  Kind of like statistics, experienced most clearly by Americans when we go to our local casino.  Sometimes we win.  But if we keep going back, eventually we will surely lose.  Covid is just like that.


The thing about that is that models have to be constantly checked against actual data to see if underlying assumptions make sense.  Very early on the Imperial College model was deviating substantially from what actually happened.  So ok, that model is no good.  Guys like Michael Levitt is doing curve fitting without any underlying biological basis for his fits, and it is not clear that what he is seeing means much.  Scientists are at their best when they are not moving too many leaps away from their primary expertise, and moving from solving protein structures to modeling epidemiology is a giant leap.  Linus Pauling won a Nobel Prize in chemistry, and a lot of the stuff he did pushing vitamin C was simply absurd.

As for who pays for science, actually in the US a great deal of the best of it is paid for by the National Institutes of Health, or the National Science Foundation, and also some private foundations (I am funded by the NIH and have also had grants in the past from the American Diabetes Association, and the Department of Defense, among others). I'm certainly not going to profit from what I discover (probably), but drug companies take an interest and I get called sometimes to consult for them.  A lot of the basic scientists in US universities function pretty much like I do, including people who are a whole let better than I am. (A few occasionally start their own companies, the though of doing that never once appealed to me).

Obviously, a lot of big clinical trials are paid for by drug companies.  So, I have been a bit skeptical of some of the data on remdesivir, for example, as Gilead made a lot of decisions about how they would test it that were criticized heavily by academic people who didn't have any vested interest in the outcome.  In other words, the trial design was weaker than it should have been.  On the other hand some "capitalistic" trials -- the best ones -- are designed in such a way that even if they are paid for by drug companies, the chances that bias influences results are removed by the trial design.  The best clinical trials are like the one in Oxford that is free of commercial interests, and which pointed to dexamethasone as a useful treatment in severely ill Covid-19 patients.  But the trials for new medications of necessity are paid for by big companies. 

As BRS says, some epidemiology is  reasonably straightforward.  The basic principles of infectious diseases are pretty well understood.  And some of the epidemiological models have done a really good job of predicting the course of this thing.  They come in many different types.  Others, not so much.  My colleague Peter Hotez, who I respect GREATLY, often cites models from the University of Pennsylvania.  One of the guys from that group had a nice essay to describe what they are good for and how we should think about them:




I am sure that Levitt did more than curve fitting and he is at least as familiar with the mathematics involved in epidemiology as any well trained expert.. If you read the article you posted, it refers to "epidemiologists and data scientists".  What are the data scientists doing that Levitt can't do?

 If you want to pillory Levitt based on supposedly lacking qualifications, how to you explain what happened with John Ioannides? Is he also unqualified and speaking outside his domain of expertise?

I am not saying they are right, by the way.  I just find it interesting how you easily dismiss someone like Levitt in a way that argues that the people who may not be ultimately convinced are just not informed enough to get it.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 10:08pm
what Levitt says is that the growth curve starts to deviate from a simple exponential.  So what?  It explains nothing.  I'm not an epidemiologist, but that cou,d mean any number ber of things.

Ftom several hours of lirerature and web searching it seems that nobody else who actually works in epidemiology agrees with his statements (lockdown cost lives ), or his comment in March that the pandemic in the US would end sooner than expected (sure doesnt look that way in mid June, the trend is going the wrong way).  Places like Fox News publicize his pronouncements.  

So I did a quick search in PubMed.  He has one preprint on Covid-19 looking at the structure of the S-protein.  That is what he is good at.  It is interesting.  I've no doubt it will be published.

He has never published even one paper on the dynamics of an infectious disease.  Ever.  Nothing he has said about his epidemiology modeling has been peer reviewed by infectious disease experts. Ever. In fact, places like Texas, Florida, and Arizona contradict his main prediction in March that made him a darling of conservative media like Fox.  

So no, I'm not impressed  by his youtube videos and I dont give a $hi+ that he won a Noble prize for looking at protein dynamics.  (Well I do when he writes about protein folding and such, just not when he pontificates about epidemiology).

Again, if you want to know more about covid-19 modeling click the link in my last post.  He explains really well what it can tell you and what it can't.  He also describes the very different methodology used in different kinds of models.  



Edited by Baal - 06/27/2020 at 10:22pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/27/2020 at 11:10pm
I just played TT today after 3 months. I found incredible how bad I performed. Slow moves, mistakes after mistakes, unable to block opponent topspins, and of course a collection of defeats in some matches.
Maybe some players are able to have a natural talent and play well without much training (I know some) but for me it definitely takes a lot of training to play a good game.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 12:03am
Hello all, I would like to underline how much I like Benfb and his personal, original intelligence of the game and life in general, his club and realization in his community talks for him, let's not forget about that: he gives his family's money to a tt club in Salem, OR that does not pay rent, that's on Ben, he is the real deal in the tt world.

Good luck to him for that silly "1000 death by the end of the year" mistake to be put to rest. Nobody really knew what would happen and it is natural that we had ALL possibilities exposed, of course some were wrong.




Edited by stiltt - 06/28/2020 at 5:02pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 1:41am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

what Levitt says is that the growth curve starts to deviate from a simple exponential.  So what?  It explains nothing.  I'm not an epidemiologist, but that cou,d mean any number ber of things.

Ftom several hours of lirerature and web searching it seems that nobody else who actually works in epidemiology agrees with his statements (lockdown cost lives ), or his comment in March that the pandemic in the US would end sooner than expected (sure doesnt look that way in mid June, the trend is going the wrong way).  Places like Fox News publicize his pronouncements.  

So I did a quick search in PubMed.  He has one preprint on Covid-19 looking at the structure of the S-protein.  That is what he is good at.  It is interesting.  I've no doubt it will be published.

He has never published even one paper on the dynamics of an infectious disease.  Ever.  Nothing he has said about his epidemiology modeling has been peer reviewed by infectious disease experts. Ever. In fact, places like Texas, Florida, and Arizona contradict his main prediction in March that made him a darling of conservative media like Fox.  

So no, I'm not impressed  by his youtube videos and I dont give a $hi+ that he won a Noble prize for looking at protein dynamics.  (Well I do when he writes about protein folding and such, just not when he pontificates about epidemiology).

Again, if you want to know more about covid-19 modeling click the link in my last post.  He explains really well what it can tell you and what it can't.  He also describes the very different methodology used in different kinds of models.  


I have seen him explain that in no scenario was there exponential growth and he believes this was the case because of social distancing and  possibly masks before lockdown and that in every case, growth seemed to slow once measures were put in place.  Since you have no respect for his insights, I don't expect you to take them seriously but his point was that with social distancing and masks and hygiene as well as protecting those most at risk, he believes the disease could be reasonably controlled.  The lockdown step he believes just shot the economy in the foot.. His point about there never being exponential growth was an argument against lockdown.

Okay so if Levitt is uninsightful because he lacks the required credentials, what do you think of John Ioannidis?  When he argued that the fatality rate of COVID19 was possibly much lower the early numbers being given, lots of people accused him of bad and biased analysis.  What is wrong with his credentials and why was he supposedly wrong?


Edited by NextLevel - 06/28/2020 at 1:45am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 1:58am
Yinhe just sent an email that they are back in lockdown
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 8:15am
I NL, I wrote what I think about Levitt's claims above.  I also wrote what I thought when you posted that ridiculous bit of "epidemiology " those two doctors in Califirnia pushed on Fox News (and became brief celebrities in the process).  I'm referring to the guys who essentially assumed that all the people who come to their stand alone ER clinics because they have symptoms  are representative of the population at large.  Since March you have grasped on to every possible thread in the news that downplays the seriousness of this pandemic, or that suggests that the only people likely to be affected are essentially irrelevant to this forum, advocating the Swedish approach, etc.  I have no idea why you are consistently taking that point of view, I really dont get it,  but I would plead with you to get your news about Covid-19 from places like Science, New Scientist, Nature Medicine, or even Forbes (their science writing is often very good), or websites of Mayo Clinic and similar,  and not from Fox or any source pushed by Fox.  

Let me say for the record also that I miss playing TT very much, and I dread to see how much I will suck once I do play again.  The only good thing about such a long layoff is it seems like a long time since I've had any back pain.




Edited by Baal - 06/28/2020 at 8:19am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 8:35am
hmm...its getting political around here. I beg everyone to limit discussion to what steps we should be taking. This is a dangerous time to talk about channels and such.  I just saw a Celtics forum eat itself over politics and the general atmosphere hanging over us this summer. Best to be nice to each other and remember, same team. It will get worse as we approach the election. Be careful, all.

Edited by cole_ely - 06/28/2020 at 8:49am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 9:25am
Hi,

The lockdown step he believes just shot the economy in the foot.

Whereas this statement above is correct in its sentiment, it is understated by significant degrees.

Accompanying the 50 to 60 million jobs temporarily or permanently lost or greatly diminished from the approach taken, we have before us predictions of bankruptcy filings from the 30 million small businesses in America of historic proportions.  Running parallel here is a credible estimate of adding to the developed-countries U.S. leading homelessness population an additional 250,000 people.

A number of leading economists have characterized the U.S. economy as on "life support", a term relatable in matters of health.  The Fauci Model is consistent in its approach: "Crush the economy" without hesitation will result in the best outcomes for the country overall.  This too is understated when considering other major institutions, with schools in the forefront of extremely harmful consequences many educators predict we will never fully recover from. 

Looking elsewhere, the unemployment rate in Germany is 3.5%.  [Interesting, in 2016 a demographic study was released that estimated that one half of all babies born in Germany in that year will see their 105th birthday.  Similar predictions for the U.S. are not to be found.]

There is a broad-based ready explanation for the COVID outcomes in the U.S. when contrasted with other countries.  By the standard metrics typically used, America is a very unhealthy nation.  We are sick as hell overall.  COVID is devastating for the very unhealthy, of which American has in great abundance.  In understanding the nature of the residents of nursing homes, this location concentration of tragedy is to be anticipated.

Thanks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 11:29am
Originally posted by cole_ely cole_ely wrote:

hmm...its getting political around here. I beg everyone to limit discussion to what steps we should be taking. This is a dangerous time to talk about channels and such.  I just saw a Celtics forum eat itself over politics and the general atmosphere hanging over us this summer. Best to be nice to each other and remember, same team. It will get worse as we approach the election. Be careful, all.

Had written a long response but will take your advice.  Thanks.  In the end, what is important is getting people to make good decisions based on their personal situations. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 11:31am
Originally posted by DonnOlsen DonnOlsen wrote:

Hi,

The lockdown step he believes just shot the economy in the foot.

Whereas this statement above is correct in its sentiment, it is understated by significant degrees.

Accompanying the 50 to 60 million jobs temporarily or permanently lost or greatly diminished from the approach taken, we have before us predictions of bankruptcy filings from the 30 million small businesses in America of historic proportions.  Running parallel here is a credible estimate of adding to the developed-countries U.S. leading homelessness population an additional 250,000 people.

A number of leading economists have characterized the U.S. economy as on "life support", a term relatable in matters of health.  The Fauci Model is consistent in its approach: "Crush the economy" without hesitation will result in the best outcomes for the country overall.  This too is understated when considering other major institutions, with schools in the forefront of extremely harmful consequences many educators predict we will never fully recover from. 

Looking elsewhere, the unemployment rate in Germany is 3.5%.  [Interesting, in 2016 a demographic study was released that estimated that one half of all babies born in Germany in that year will see their 105th birthday.  Similar predictions for the U.S. are not to be found.]

There is a broad-based ready explanation for the COVID outcomes in the U.S. when contrasted with other countries.  By the standard metrics typically used, America is a very unhealthy nation.  We are sick as hell overall.  COVID is devastating for the very unhealthy, of which American has in great abundance.  In understanding the nature of the residents of nursing homes, this location concentration of tragedy is to be anticipated.

Thanks.

Agreed - shooting oneself in the foot might not be strong enough, but I don't think just the lockdown caused that - there were lots of mistakes made by the Trump administration that didn't help either.

Not sure whether Germany will end up as well as it has over time WRT GDP.  The global economy is linked so we really don't know where the lockdown will put everyone.  The issue is really the quality of life that the citizens enjoy as things happen.  COVID19 was going to affect that - so it will be important to distinguish between the impact of COVID19 and the impact of bad management.


Edited by NextLevel - 06/28/2020 at 11:47am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 11:45am
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

I NL, I wrote what I think about Levitt's claims above.  I also wrote what I thought when you posted that ridiculous bit of "epidemiology " those two doctors in Califirnia pushed on Fox News (and became brief celebrities in the process).  I'm referring to the guys who essentially assumed that all the people who come to their stand alone ER clinics because they have symptoms  are representative of the population at large.  Since March you have grasped on to every possible thread in the news that downplays the seriousness of this pandemic, or that suggests that the only people likely to be affected are essentially irrelevant to this forum, advocating the Swedish approach, etc.  I have no idea why you are consistently taking that point of view, I really dont get it,  but I would plead with you to get your news about Covid-19 from places like Science, New Scientist, Nature Medicine, or even Forbes (their science writing is often very good), or websites of Mayo Clinic and similar,  and not from Fox or any source pushed by Fox.  

Let me say for the record also that I miss playing TT very much, and I dread to see how much I will suck once I do play again.  The only good thing about such a long layoff is it seems like a long time since I've had any back pain.


To answer the substance of what you were saying:

The doctors were clearly presenting data based on their experience and not pretending to do anything other than that, and were questioning whether the policies of lockdown made sense given what they were seeing in their county in Bakersfield, CA.  When we look at Kern county in California, which is where the doctors were located,  these are the current statistics:


In any case, maybe I grant others too much leeway in thinking that everyone can watch a video like that and draw their own conclusions.  I only saw those doctors when DerEchte posted a link to them and they were on a public California news TV station making their own contribution.  I didn't know about them from Fox News or anything else.  It is weird the kinds of assumptions you make about what I know/read because of your political leanings.  But for me, I have made it clear that I think lifestyle and diet are the primary ways of managing COVID19 disease susceptibility.  I could be wrong about that, but that is what mainly drives my position.  For me, people in the mainstream press everything other than discuss lifestyle and diet as risk factors.  So I find it hard to take either side seriously.

For the record, I read articles from all the sources that you are talking about.  It is all about finding pieces to the puzzle, not about listening to only the stuff that suits your worldview.  I have parents who are still alive and have a responsibility to give them good medical information.  But what I find is that there is a concerted effort in parts of the mainstream media (all the major cable news networks) to use the virus as a political weapon.  People are losing their livelihoods over these things.  It isn't trivial.  


Edited by NextLevel - 06/28/2020 at 11:49am
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 12:48pm
It is puzzling to the world why so many Americans think they must form their own views on everything and to "take a position" in what is clearly a public health issue in COVID-19. This is the exact reason why most first-world countries have already managed to flatten the curve but not us. Research exists showing that spreading your own unscientific beliefs ("I could be wrong, but I take my position in...") and even conspiracies ("all mainstream media do this...") is associated with marked distrust in government institutions and reduced engagement in positive health behaviors (e.g. wearing a mask in public when there is a respiratory pandemic). Sharing such seemingly harmless opinion or information in a public forum can actually be quite damaging and goes beyond any individual's valuable input in times of crisis.

Conspiracy theories usually take one of two forms: Ideation, usually featuring mass manipulation (e.g. free Youtube videos), and skepticism, that people "in the know" are willing to go to great lengths to cover-up the truth. Research has identified that endorsement of conspiracy theories usually comes down to individual characteristics of a person, such as intense self-righteousness and high narcissism. There is no clear solution to engaging such individuals in productive conversations, as they may be too invested in the content or identity politics. The complex circumstances presented by this pandemic must not be overly simplified by a person's beliefs or conspiracy theories.






Edited by roundrobin - 06/28/2020 at 12:54pm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 1:28pm
Originally posted by roundrobin roundrobin wrote:

It is puzzling to the world why so many Americans think they must form their own views on everything and to "take a position" in what is clearly a public health issue in COVID-19. This is the exact reason why most first-world countries have already managed to flatten the curve but not us. Research exists showing that spreading your own unscientific beliefs ("I could be wrong, but I take my position in...") and even conspiracies ("all mainstream media do this...") is associated with marked distrust in government institutions and reduced engagement in positive health behaviors (e.g. wearing a mask in public when there is a respiratory pandemic). Sharing such seemingly harmless opinion or information in a public forum can actually be quite damaging and goes beyond any individual's valuable input in times of crisis.

Conspiracy theories usually take one of two forms: Ideation, usually featuring mass manipulation (e.g. free Youtube videos), and skepticism, that people "in the know" are willing to go to great lengths to cover-up the truth. Research has identified that endorsement of conspiracy theories usually comes down to individual characteristics of a person, such as intense self-righteousness and high narcissism. There is no clear solution to engaging such individuals in productive conversations, as they may be too invested in the content or identity politics. The complex circumstances presented by this pandemic must not be overly simplified by a person's beliefs or conspiracy theories.

Ya :) I will just say US has so many players in this game that US lives by the sword dies by the sword. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/28/2020 at 3:54pm
Hi,

Many good observations here, thanks!

A broad, quite encompassing notion here is anti-intellectualism.  Intellectualism has something to do with an acceptance of an objective reality that humans hold some capability of understanding as objective human knowledge.  

Intellectualism is centering one's position on this objective knowledge as the foundation of relating to a given subject.  Intellectualism comes in many valid forms, from the acceptance of inductive inferences derived from observations to the assistance of Karl Popper's work in the sciences, to the abstract and rarefied field of pure mathematics.  In all and in every form of its participation and expression, much study using formal means is required

With the greatest of dignity and in possession of many of the finest of human qualities, one may choose a life that is essentially non-intellectual.  It is the most frequent choice and due to this, societies are so organized to recognize this typical type of person and the environments that permit them to thrive.

The third orientation accompanying the intellectual and the non-intellectual selections are the anti-intellectuals.  These people are in direct opposition to relating to a topic using objective human knowledge as the foundation.  In fact, their position is directly against the intellectual approach, striving as they will to suppress the influence of objective knowledge, favoring instead views the sources of which are, at least superficially, unknown.

One example was publicly revealed in a survey that found that the majority of registered members of the Republican party believe the net effect of colleges and universities in America is negative.  The net effect of colleges and universities is negative on the United States.  This is anti-intellectualism.

As others have noted, America now has a widely recognized international reputation that is prominently imbued with this one national quality.  Recent political outcomes successfully reinforced this perspective.

Few other attributes of America's character induce greater despair.

Thanks again!  

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