WTT Star Contender Goa 2023, 2/27-3/5

Here is the deal. You're cherrypicking her victories while ignoring her defeats. That's exactly like the folks who get stoked about how LSD's wins are so impressive while conveniently overlooking his losses/close matches just weeks ago or even in the same tournament. Same deal for WCQ late last year.

To supplement my previous post:

Ishikawa 1-3 CSY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gjamAy4zhU

Ishikawa 3-2 CIC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmPOrV7FE9o

Kuai Man 2-3 Chien Tung-Chuan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M7zp4iFK70


De Nutte 1-3 Chien Tung-Chuan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRoch1wyKCI


Chien Tung-Chuan 1-3 QTY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FKzR-C_G_0

De Nutte 3-0 CIC
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTcE_iz4S_g


Edited by zeio - 03/07/2023 at 11:40am

Oh, please. Look what you told me.

pongfugrasshopper wrote: Also, if the argument is that CIC is taking away a precious spot because she's one of the two highest ranked players in Taiwan, then shouldn't you be comparing her record against those in Taiwan lower than both her and CSY (the 2 highest ranked players)? I doubt they can beat Hayata, Hirano, DHK, SYB, KM.

Chien Tung-Chuan beat KM like CIC did and beat De Nutte that CIC lost to in their LAST ENCOUNTER. What now?

The CIC right now is just like the Hayata a few months back. Hayata was supposed to be part of the spotlight of this tournament given her recent form. What happened? I'm still waiting for an excuse from Hayata here. See how Tieba users react to Hayata 1-3 CIC.

Once again.

https://mytabletennis.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=92138&PID=1130638&title=european-championships-2022-8-1321#1130638

LGL: The players I select are often not based on their upper limit. The upper limit is when they perform the best. I look for their lower limit. Anyone can win when you are at your best, right? It is your lower limit, when you are in a bad state, when your mental state is not good, is there a "bottom line" for your lower limit? Host: Can also win at the lower limit LGL: Yes, your lower limit...At my worst, I can also play at 70%. Then, I will weigh whether your 70% can compete with the opponents. You can win when above 90% or 100%, then, is 70% feasible, and for some if 70% is not guaranteed, 50%, 40%, then your...This is a fundamental thing

Edited by zeio - 03/07/2023 at 1:58pm

Also, at the end of a day, there is no best win or worst loss. They are all stats.

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/stats

Stats are facts which are obtained from analysing information expressed in numbers.

That's why folks should see if their impressions align with the stats.   CCY learned it the hard way.

CCY: ZJK Could Be "Dead" Before I Run into Him
http://mytabletennis.net/forum/ccy-zjk-could-be-dead-before-i-run-into-him_topic76395.html

Edited by zeio - 03/07/2023 at 2:18pm

zeio wrote: pongfugrasshopper wrote: That's one player (Sarah DeNutte) you've cherrypicked.  Chien Tung-Chuan doesn't have much in terms of international play so there's not much to go on, but as you noted her best win was Kuai Man.  She's also had a loss to Orawan Paranang.  So that's really not comparable to the wins/losses CIC has had.  You're really going to base everything on one loss to Sarah DeNutte last February [Edit: Feb 2022]? Now I could also say that's one or two tournaments you've cherrypicked. Let's not get there. Where were you when CIC was losing left and right? Let me see... http://mytabletennis.net/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=91465&PID=1124717&title=wtt-singapore-smash-2022-03-0703-20#1124717 pongfugrasshopper wrote: zeio wrote: Ishikawa vs CIC 7:2, 8:6, 9:6, 9:7, 10:7, 10:8, 11:8, CIC killed herself on serve 11:8 4:2, TO for CIC, 5;2, 5:11 1:4, 2:4, 2:5, 3:5, 3:6, 5:6, 5:7, 5:8, 6:8, 6:9, 6:10, 8:10, 8:11 3:0, 3:1, 11:1 CIC played like *bleep* in G1, G2 and G5. Ishikawa played like *bleep* in G3 and G4. How did these 2 reach the R16? Ishikawa had a super easy draw. CIC eked out a multiple deuces in the 5th in opening round with Kato. Sometimes it's just a lucky or unlucky draw. Poor CXT got WYD in opening round and got Kuai Manned early at the Muscat Contender.  Like I mentioned, the goals for this year are WTTC 2023 and ATTC 2023/Asian Games 2022. CM became a laughing stock in China after saying "my era had come, finally" after winning WS at Tokyo 2020. LGL spared no effort to chew her out. Why? To this date, she is still missing the WTTC to complete her grand slam. https://www.tabletennisdaily.com/forum/topics/tokyo-2020-2020-7-24-8-9.23698/post-350084 Liu Guoliang said: "As the reigning women's Olympic champion, Chen Meng should be regarded as a young gun. Participating in the Olympic Games for the first time, she realized her dream. However, to claim you are the leading figure just because you have become the Olympic Champion, then I think you have jumped to conclusions. Think how many World Titles were needed to participate in singles in the previous Olympics, but for this special Olympics, they seized the opportunity. In my opinion, Chen Meng, Sun Yingsha, and Wang Manyu are still neck and neck in level."

The ITTF Week #10 2023 ranking now has Cheng I-Ching at WR#18.  Nice!

Let's try a different case. Jang Woojin and An Jaehyun. Do the stats support AJH's WTTC 2019 bronze medal?

The years of most interest are 2018, 2019 and 2022. 2020 and 2021 are outliers due to the pandemic so we'll ignore them.

2018 and 2019 should be self-explanatory. 2022 is of interest here because AJH actually beat QD, despite having his career-worst win rate and had JWJ beaten Duda, Korea would've won 3-0 instead of losing 2-3 and been the team to reach the WTTC final.

2023 win rate
JWJ = 8/10 = 80%, https://i.imgur.com/bZsHzqS.png
AJH = 8/11 = 72.7%, https://i.imgur.com/2ybYAMr.png

Year-by-year
JWJ, https://i.imgur.com/gvC3wzm.png
2013 88%
2018 81%
2010 81%
2022 79%, https://i.imgur.com/VoogQgI.png
2009 74%
2012 73%
2014 72%
2015 69%
2020 67%
2017 67%
2019 58%
2016 58%
2021 47%

AJH, https://i.imgur.com/5TMFqlq.png
2014 82%
2015 79%
2020 75%
2019 72%
2017 71%
2018 70%
2016 69%
2012 68%
2013 55%
2021 50%
2022 48%, https://i.imgur.com/mXJTU5B.png

Below is AJH's interview after losing 1-4 Samsonov at China Open 2019.

赛后|安宰贤：世乒赛后生活没变化，输球因老萨太强大
https://video.zhibo.tv/detail/video/92224.html
@02:28
Last question...Given his result at the WTTC
he'll be studied by many others...Is he prepared? Any plan for the future?
Playing in the China Open this time
I didn't prepare for a specific match
I have a long-term goal...I'll take part in the Opens and the WTTC
The ultimate goal behind all this work is to get a good finish in the WTTC
Thank you

And did I mention QD? 8 months later, how many still feel the same excitement about him?
http://mytabletennis.net/FORUM/forum_posts.asp?TID=76840&PID=1128031&title=qiu-dang#1128031

Same for LYJ after Tokyo 2020. Folks were saying how Harimoto had plateaued. Now? Tieba users are contemplating (yet again) that LYJ has fallen behind. I could understand them. How did he lose to the overrated WCT AGAIN at Asian Cup 2022?



Edited by zeio - 03/08/2023 at 10:05am

zeio wrote: Let's try a different case. Jang Woojin and An Jaehyun. Do the stats support AJH's WTTC 2019 bronze medal? The years of most interest are 2018, 2019 and 2022. 2020 and 2021 are outliers due to the pandemic so we'll ignore them. 2018 and 2019 should be self-explanatory. 2022 is of interest here because AJH actually beat QD, despite having his career-worst win rate and had JWJ beaten Duda, Korea would've won 3-0 instead of losing 2-3 and been the team to reach the WTTC final. 2023 win rate JWJ = 8/10 = 80%, https://i.imgur.com/bZsHzqS.png AJH = 8/11 = 72.7%, https://i.imgur.com/2ybYAMr.png Year-by-year JWJ, https://i.imgur.com/gvC3wzm.png 2013 88% 2018 81% 2010 81% 2022 79%, https://i.imgur.com/VoogQgI.png 2009 74% 2012 73% 2014 72% 2015 69% 2020 67% 2017 67% 2019 58% 2016 58% 2021 47% AJH, https://i.imgur.com/5TMFqlq.png 2014 82% 2015 79% 2020 75% 2019 72% 2017 71% 2018 70% 2016 69% 2012 68% 2013 55% 2021 50% 2022 48%, https://i.imgur.com/mXJTU5B.png Below is AJH's interview after losing 1-4 Samsonov at China Open 2019. 赛后|安宰贤：世乒赛后生活没变化，输球因老萨太强大 https://video.zhibo.tv/detail/video/92224.html @02:28 Last question...Given his result at the WTTC he'll be studied by many others...Is he prepared? Any plan for the future? Playing in the China Open this time I didn't prepare for a specific match I have a long-term goal...I'll take part in the Opens and the WTTC The ultimate goal behind all this work is to get a good finish in the WTTC Thank you And did I mention QD? 8 months later, how many still feel the same excitement about him? http://mytabletennis.net/FORUM/forum_posts.asp?TID=76840&PID=1128031&title=qiu-dang#1128031 Same for LYJ after Tokyo 2020. Folks were saying how Harimoto had plateaued. Now? Tieba users are contemplating (yet again) that LYJ has fallen behind. I could understand them. How did he lose to the overrated WCT AGAIN at Asian Cup 2022?

Edited by NextLevel - 03/08/2023 at 5:14pm

There are some parallels for sure but the match score at the WTTC is not close enough for me to seriously consider it.  It would be like me considering what would have happened had ZJK won the 2016 Olympic Gold.

Edited by NextLevel - 03/09/2023 at 12:56pm