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The lust for older Viscarias

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    Posted: 06/15/2016 at 12:07pm
Not trying to rile anyone up, just a honest-to-'God' curious question of mine:

I'm not saying that the 'older wood in older blades provides better feel' argument is BS. But, that can't be solely the reason for the obsession with older Viscarias.

Older Viscarias sell at EUR 200-300 premiums to new ones, right? 

The Timo Boll ZLC blades have the exact same wood composition & individual wood layer thickness as the Viscaria (koto-fiber-limba-kiri-limba-fiber-koto).

So, if the 'older wood layers provide better feel' argument is the main reason for this mad rush for old Viscarias, then older TB-ZLC blades would also sell at a premium to new ones. Instead, they sell at a $100-$150 discount.

Is the black tag viscaria obsession of a similar kind to that towards the Mona Lisa or the Kardashians (ie: you care about them mostly because others do)?

Or is this plainly some form of the Greater Fool Theory at work?

Or is it that the metal black tag has some secret chemical substances in them that produces a dopamine & norepinephrine rush in your brain when you use the blade?







Edited by slevin - 06/15/2016 at 12:12pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Canadian Bacon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 12:33pm
The "human perception" to better/best has no sane reasoning just use/ get what you desire if you can afford it. No hesitations needed "Just Do It"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by The Canadian Bacon The Canadian Bacon wrote:

The "human perception" to better/best has no sane reasoning just use/ get what you desire if you can afford it. No hesitations needed "Just Do It"

Either you're hazy or I am, either way, it does not make any sense to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wturber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 1:41pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

Originally posted by The Canadian Bacon The Canadian Bacon wrote:

The "human perception" to better/best has no sane reasoning just use/ get what you desire if you can afford it. No hesitations needed "Just Do It"

Either you're hazy or I am, either way, it does not make any sense to me.

Studies have shown that human perception of valuation is highly variable depending on juxtaposed factors, such as the situation, labeling, personal mood at the time, and so forth.  Given certain situation, people will get valuations objectively wrong.  I think that's what he's saying.


Edited by wturber - 06/15/2016 at 1:41pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Timo1978 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 1:41pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:



Older Viscarias sell at EUR 200-300 premiums to new ones, right? 

Slevin, honestly if you are able to buy a mint or even unused Viscaria [either first or second Generation] at 200€ this is already a steal. Did you notice that the prices for old tag Viscarias are rising extremly?

The Timo Boll ZLC blades have the exact same wood composition & individual wood layer thickness as the Viscaria (koto-fiber-limba-kiri-limba-fiber-koto).
TB ZLC have no old tags and have been introduced to the market during the past 6 to 8 years. Viscaria has been released in 1989 - i think that is a big difference but who knows-maybe the TB ZLC will become a legendary one in future too, we cannot know. I am pretty sure Maze ALC will have a similar development regarding the Prices like Viscaria and TBS. For the composition we still do not know if it is really Limba or ayous instead.

Is the black tag viscaria obsession of a similar kind to that towards the Mona Lisa or the Kardashians (ie: you care about them mostly because others do)?
I think of course it has to do with the fact others care for it. You can pick out many items that gain value with time only because they are requested...wine and Whiskey...old furniture...silver coins  - this is all stuff that gains value.







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wturber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

The Timo Boll ZLC blades have the exact same wood composition & individual wood layer thickness as the Viscaria (koto-fiber-limba-kiri-limba-fiber-koto).

Are they glued using the same methods?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 2:02pm
wturber: Thanks. I know what he is saying. What I am saying is that if there is a perception that older wood = better feel, than that same perception should make the price of a blade with similar or identical wood layers to Viscaria go up.

Note, my use of TB-ZLC is just purely as an example. Same thing happens with many other blades (like MJ).

Re glueing, there are not too many methods of premium blade mass-production glueing (while there are other methods that bespoke blade manufacturers shall use).

Timo1978: I think that you're just stating the observations that I have stated (black tag prices are going up, wine and whiskey go up in value over time). I'm saying that the reason why the prices are going up are nothing to do with value in table tennis play but pure BS (The Greater Fool Effect or the hope that someone shall pay more than you did in the future for your blade). There is no significant tangible value.

So, we have a pretty popular thread in this forum on what equipment the pro players use. There are a lot of Viscarias in that thread (as a lot of pro players use them). A lot of ex-CNT or provincial Chinese players here in the US use them as well.

Go back and look in that pro-players equipment thread. How many black-tag Viscarias do you see?

I had earlier asked a ex-CNT player-coach (& long-time Viscaria user) in my club about black tag Viscarias. He laughed and said that there is a fool born every minute...


Edited by slevin - 06/15/2016 at 2:03pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wturber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 2:19pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

wturber: Thanks. I know what he is saying. What I am saying is that if there is a perception that older wood = better feel, than that same perception should make the price of a blade with similar or identical wood layers to Viscaria go up.

If it is similarly old, yes, you would think so.  In some situations there seems to be a tendency to think that older is somehow superior when there is actually very little objective evidence that this is true.  But in real life there will surely be more variables at play, and how any particular person frames the value decision will have a big influence on how they value something.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 2:33pm
Originally posted by wturber wturber wrote:

Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

wturber: Thanks. I know what he is saying. What I am saying is that if there is a perception that older wood = better feel, than that same perception should make the price of a blade with similar or identical wood layers to Viscaria go up.

If it is similarly old, yes, you would think so.  In some situations there seems to be a tendency to think that older is somehow superior when there is actually very little objective evidence that this is true.  

Right, but that is not happening is it? Old MJs and TB-ZLCs depreciate significantly in price rather than appreciating...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kindof99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 2:35pm
Isn't it the simple rule for price,

Supply <<< demand ?


Edited by kindof99 - 06/15/2016 at 2:42pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 2:49pm
Originally posted by kindof99 kindof99 wrote:

Isn't it the simple rule for price,

Supply <<< demand ?

Yes, and I'm questioning the reason for the demand. There are millions of items that we had plenty of back in the 80s and early 90s that are obviously in less supply today (as they are no longer manufactured). That should not & in reality, does not automatically increase their demand.

The reason (for the increased demand) also can't just be that that there is less supply. There are also fewer TB-ZLC blades made 7 years ago available than TB-ZLC blades made in the last 2 years (that I can get from any dealer). Yet, the sale price of 7 yr old TB-ZLC is much lower than that of a 1 yr old TB-ZLC.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AMonteiro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 3:12pm
Imagine the price if pro players were using black tags..LOLLOL 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 3:40pm
Originally posted by fatt fatt wrote:

the main reason is fanboyism after zjk

fatt: if it is ZJK fanboyism, shouldn't silver tag Viscaria be worth much more than black tag (as ZJK uses silver tag)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zeio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 3:49pm
The reason is in the name.

Timo Boll?  Michael Maze?  Mizutani Jun?  They get old and depreciate in value.

Viscaria?  The name never dies.
Viscaria FL - 91g
+ Neo H3 2.15 Blk - 44.5g(55.3g uncut bare)
+ Hexer HD 2.1 Red - 49.3g(68.5g 〃 〃)
= 184.8g
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Canadian Bacon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 3:51pm
Like i said earlier, no sane reasoning, other than some want best over better for whatever reasons they may make up and then there will be others who question those reasons for whatever reasons they may have to ask or start a thread about it. It's all personal preferences,we dont need to question unless we really want one but dont like the pricing or whatever else we see "wrong" or right depending on which side we're looking at it from, buyer or seller.
You can reason it to death it is what it is live with it.

Edited by The Canadian Bacon - 06/15/2016 at 3:53pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 4:00pm
If it was fanboyism of ZJK people would only buy new ones.  Actually, I hit with one of the newest ones the other day and I thought it was excellent.  I still think that over all it is the best ALC blade Btfly has made. 

I think old ones often play very nice, especially compares to ones that were made from around 2012-2014 (which got too light) but nothing made of wood is 100% sure.  My favorites are from around 2007-2009 and are 89-93 g.  Some of the really old ones feel dead to me and I think they were substantially thinner.  Quite different in a lot of ways.  I have sold all the ones I had that were that old.  This is all relative of course.  I have never actually played with a BAD Viscaria, just some that were not as good as others.

ST handle ones are incredibly rare.  I have no idea how the originals play, have never even seen one in the flesh.

I think current price of older Viscarias is a classic example of a bubble, which I think is slevin's point.

On the other hand, the price of ZLC and especially super ZLC blades seems insane to me but at the end of the day, a blade is worth whatever people will pay for it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by zeio zeio wrote:

The reason is in the name.

Timo Boll?  Michael Maze?  Mizutani Jun?  They get old and depreciate in value.

Viscaria?  The name never dies.

LOLLOL

How about Amultart. Does anyone want a old, beaten up Amultart for EUR 600? I promise that there is no player called Amultart who shall get posterized by up & coming Chinese teenagers in the near future...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Timo1978 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 4:07pm
Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

Originally posted by wturber wturber wrote:

Originally posted by slevin slevin wrote:

wturber: Thanks. I know what he is saying. What I am saying is that if there is a perception that older wood = better feel, than that same perception should make the price of a blade with similar or identical wood layers to Viscaria go up.

If it is similarly old, yes, you would think so.  In some situations there seems to be a tendency to think that older is somehow superior when there is actually very little objective evidence that this is true.  

Right, but that is not happening is it? Old MJs and TB-ZLCs depreciate significantly in price rather than appreciating...

That is the current Situation but....how will it be 5 years? or in 10 years? Nobody can say right now.
What i noticed that early versions of Mizutani ZLC ST have already a stronger request, at least as if they still have mint condition. This might be due to the introduction of the new design or due to the ST handle shape. Plus we have also to consider the request  regarding the locations. There are some models in Europe that many are looking for and in Asia nobody gives a shit about them and they are hidden in the last corners of the tt-shops. I have seen a Gergely Carbon first series that has been sold at 1500€ one week ago. Is the Price crazy? yes, of Course. Would i spend it for a blade? Definitly not. Does the new owner of it care what we think about it? definitly no! He spend the amount since he wanted it.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 4:10pm
Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:

Actually, I hit with one of the newest ones the other day and I thought it was excellent. 

Originally posted by Baal Baal wrote:


On the other hand, the price of ZLC and especially super ZLC blades seems insane to me but at the end of the day, a blade is worth whatever people will pay for it. 

There is a important difference between the reasons for the high SZLC price vs high old Viscaria price. 

The 1st is basically a non-negotiable price that is pinned by a manufacturer with deep pockets.

The 2nd is a free-to-fluctuate market price in transactions between two users. The manufacturer pins this price at $150 only.

So, a buyer (on the 'For Sale' part of this forum) ponying up $275 - $300 for a MJ-SZLC is making a sort-of rational decision (he wants the blade and he is buying it much cheaper than the $375 a authorized dealer would charge).

However, some forum members who want a Viscaria choose to pay the huge inflated price (EUR 400 to 600) when they can buy the same blade brand new for $150.

See, big, big difference! Smile




Edited by slevin - 06/15/2016 at 4:18pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 4:33pm
Originally posted by Timo1978 Timo1978 wrote:

That is the current Situation but....how will it be 5 years? or in 10 years? Nobody can say right now.
What i noticed that early versions of Mizutani ZLC ST have already a stronger request, at least as if they still have mint condition. 

Timo1978: you're just making observations from the perspective of a 2nd-hand blade reseller.

I think what you're saying is that the price (to a 2nd hand blade reseller) is what it is because buyers are willing to pay for it. I mean this in the most courteous, well-meaning way: there is simply no new info here.

I'm questioning the final buyer's motives. As I mentioned that I don't want to rile anyone, I won't question their sanity...

Or...

Perhaps, there is no final buyer, yet?

Happens in the shadier rooms in finance - a bunch of brokers sell some hard to acquire, illiquid corporate bond to each other at inflated & increasing values (thus setting some artificially high transaction price points) waiting for a dumb fool (who sees these transactions take place) to buy at a small discount waiting for the price to go up again...

As I said, the Greater Fool Theory. U agree, Timo1978?



Edited by slevin - 06/15/2016 at 4:36pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:00pm
I digressed a bit. I want to understand motives of final buyers and not observations from sellers.

The reason can't be 'better feel due to wood aging' as then, older MJs and TB-ZLCs would also sell at some sort-of premium to new (or, at least at par).

The reason can't be pure lack of supply of older blades as there are plenty of other older blades (from the early 90s) made by whatever companies were around then (Tibhar? Donic?), etc. Those blades should be equally in short supply. No one is jumping over hoops for them.

The reason can't be high demand for Viscaria: Butterfly is willing to meet that demand by selling for $150 (which was around $105 a few years ago, BTW). Mind you: this Viscaria that BTY sells has the same wood & fiber composition as the older ones did.

It is just that people want, not just any Viscarias, but specifically old, beaten up, sweat-stained Viscarias. Because...

Forget it, I give up. I can't figure people out.

Tulips, anyone?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Timo1978 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:04pm

As I said, the Greater Fool Theory. U agree, Timo1978?




Collectors want it since they are "rare" especially with ST handles. Are they fools? Maybe yes they could spend the Money for other stuff...but as long as the value does not drop and they can get their Money back later and there is no Black Friday for old tag Viscarias.... 

Some want them just for play since they might think using an old tag Viscaria adds 10% "perfomance"
just by using it and save proper TrainingWink....yes that sounds foolish to me.


Edited by Timo1978 - 06/15/2016 at 5:06pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:23pm
Originally posted by fatt fatt wrote:

zjk fanboyism simply makes the viscaria sought after; the black tag thing results from the perception that things that have been around a long time are worth more, especially when they are not available anymore

Originally posted by fatt fatt wrote:

blades that have aged feel better because they have settled into their most stable state

fatt, I think I covered the above (1) low supply and (2) better feel arguments in my prior posts: why then old TB-ZLC (simply as an example) trades at such a discount to par? Same wood composition, etc for the 'better feel' argument for old TB-ZLC. Same low supply analogy.

The 3rd possible point you make in the above 2 quotes is ZJK fanboyism. Let us ISOLATE that argument (like we isolated the 2 above) Well, if I am a ZJK fan, I can fully satisfy that by buying for $150, so the inflated price CLEARLY isn't because of that.

Originally posted by fatt fatt wrote:

ZJK is getting from Butterfly blades that are hand picked by the most knowledgeable people and feel as good as it gets so HIS choice should not matter in this discussion.

So, he is getting custom blades that are NEW and not BLACK TAG. They may or may not be the same as the ones commercially available in the market. He is not buying old, beaten up, sweat-stained black tags is he?

So, as a fanboy, I'd come closer to replicating his mysterious set-up if I buy a NEW silver tag from BTY, rather than an old beaten up, sweat-stained black tag, won't I?

Besides, he ain't the only CNT / ex-CNT / provincial player who uses Viscaria. All those other players (both in China and here in the US) use silver tag. 

Still a mystery to me...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by Timo1978 Timo1978 wrote:

Collectors want it since they are "rare"

Timo1978: I covered that argument before - a lot of things are rare. Billions of items have been discontinued since the 80s and 90s that have not appreciated in price. Most have massively depreciated or have no value.

I can understand, ponying up for a 1980s Wang PC or an IBM PC AT. They are not made.

The Viscaria, however, is still made today with the same look and composition as those old ones.

Do they want old blades JUST because they are rare? I have an unused trouser I bought 10 years ago from a Banana Republic store in Oxford St, London. No longer made for years. I'm reasonably sure that that is ONLY one of the few mint-condition trousers available in that design from 10 years ago. You might get an 8 year old one, but a 10 year old one, that is rare.

Should I start the bidding at EUR 400?

No. Because people don't want things JUST because they are rare...

If you then pin the demand blame on things other than rare, look at my prior post (in response to fatt's) above this one...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kindof99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:51pm
slevin, I think you are thinking in your own box at the moment.

By the way, I believe the new Viscaria with the hologram stone will player better, maybe better than the old tag for the plastic balls.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 5:56pm
Well, I'm not accepting any argument at face value without giving it any thought. That is not a new concept.

Originally posted by kindof99 kindof99 wrote:

By the way, I believe the new Viscaria with the hologram stone will player better, maybe better than the old tag for the plastic balls.

What is your reasoning regarding this belief?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kindof99 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 6:18pm
Someone likes the old viscaria , and slevin does not like it. That is it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote slevin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 6:40pm
fatt: I'm getting tired and am kind-of ready to leave this discussion for better real-life things to do.

So, you recommend combining 3 factors rather than isolating them:
  1. older blades have better feeling wood
  2. older blades are in low supply
  3. ZJK fanboy-ism

You agree that the 1st 2 combined can be applied to my old TB-ZLC example? So, you combine the 1st 2 factors you get to a price point (for an older TB-ZLC) of $100 - $150 less than a brand new blade ($250). That is not re-assuring. Assuming rational thinking (& no ZJK factor), that would equate to a price of $75 for and old Viscaria.

Add the 3rd factor, and lo and behold, the price changes from $75 to $500??? Well, that should make things clear.

Or is there a 4th factor: Black Tag-ism? Why? As I said in my initial post, does that metal tag have special chemicals that release endorphins? If old wood ages better, it does independent of tag color.

I haven't played with many BTVs (black tag Viscarias). I've just owned 3 (the EJ that I am). I'm guessing you haven't been a big BTV collector / player either but I could be very wrong on that.

Baal has. He says he has played with certain BTVs that have been bad. He has played with certain others that have been good. He has played with current STVs that have been good. I think that his overall opinions can be summarized by:
  1. on average, old Viscarias play better than new ones though the recent ones may be excellent as well
  2. however, for the level difference in quality, current prices for BTVs are irrational and this is a bubble

I'll take his word on both above things. I'll attribute the irrational premium to irrational sentiments (whether fanboyism (of a custom-built silver tagger, no less) or blacktagism or both).




Edited by slevin - 06/15/2016 at 6:42pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote smackman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 7:04pm
If we weren't on a forum no one would know, also If someone didn't like a Viscaria,
 mob rule would dictate they are wrong, 
If people pay high dollars for someone else's well used Tenergy, 5.5 months on blade "80% life still left in the rubber" then people will pay for anything

  Overall some people are speculating,others just want to "be like MIke", or are rich, naive, brainy, trendy, fanboys, knowledgeable, silly, maybe a wants type of person over needs type.

 On the flip side I hear and see nothing about people wanting old Viscaria's with my travel to 3-4 table tennis venues a week and my life in a table tennis shop 7 days a week


Edited by smackman - 06/15/2016 at 7:05pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Canadian Bacon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06/15/2016 at 7:08pm
Originally posted by kindof99 kindof99 wrote:

Someone likes the old viscaria , and slevin does not like it. That is it. 


Yup, can't face the truth...LIVE WITH IT and MOVE ON LOL
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